The "experts" wrong two years ago when they predicted a very active Atlantic
hurricane season. They were wrong last year when the predicated a well above
average hurricane season. And now these dummies are again predicting an
above average activity hurricane season.

Why should we sailors put any store in forecasts that are demonstrable poor
guesses? What possible good do these faulty forecasts do anybody? It's like
the boy who cried "WOLF" fairy tale. If anything such impotent forecasts
have the opposite of the intended effect. We brush them aside. We think,
"Please get real!".

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbc...010/1086/rss07

Dr. William Gray is out of touch with reality. For one thing he lives in
Colorado - which has never experienced a hurricane. If he were serious he
would move to Texas, Louisiana or Florida so he'd be a little more familiar
with his line of work. His position is untenable. He's sort of like an
ex-pearl diver now living in Kathmandu and trying to guess the pearl harvest
in Hawaii. It's pathetic! It demonstrates the folly of relying too much on
computers and so-called technology while isolating one's self from the
actual climate. Colorado State University? I guess that's in Fort Collins?
Isn't the altitude there about a mile? Maybe Dr. Gray is suffering from
oxygen deficiency. Seems to me people who live at altitude in Colorado are
less intelligent than those who live at sea level. They often suffer from a
host of maladies including high altitude cerebral edema.
http://www.ismmed.org/np_altitude_tutorial.htm

I think Dr. Gray is a bad example for everybody who has the misfortune of
taking him seriously. It takes the willing suspension of belief to even
listen to him. I will continue to do the usual hurricane preparation no
matter the forecast. What I do has served me successfully for 20 years and
all my boats have come through without a scratch. But, of course, my main
course is to put to sea and evade. It's always better to avoid a hurricane
than to be stuck in its projected path with no good options. I've found that
my Swan 68 can easily outrun the typical Atlantic basin hurricane. But, the
safest course is simply sail to the southern hemisphere in the off season
and remain there until the beginning of their season and then sail back to
the northern hemisphere where the season is ending.

Wilbur Hubbard

On Apr 20, 12:38*pm, "Wilbur Hubbard"
wrote:
The "experts" wrong two years ago when they predicted a very active Atlantic
hurricane season.

Why should we sailors put any store in forecasts that are demonstrable poor
guesses?

Dr. William Gray is out of touch with reality. For one thing he lives in
Colorado - which has never experienced a hurricane. If he were serious he
would move to
Wilbur Hubbard

My dearest Willbur.

Me thinks your off base here. two things:
1) living in colorado has nothing to do with a persons meterological
credentials. I live in the PNW and instruct nearly 100 state
university studnts each term. Humm now how do I do that? with my ass
on a boat? In fact I could even live in CO (god forbid) and still
teach my 100 students, or FL for that matter.

2) If you belived in Global Weather Change the reason for getting a
prediction wrong on a GLOBAL scale is obvious for such an inlightened
person as your self. Its all statistics and modeling. Then throw in an
event that is not in the data base (you may call it history) and it
screws up the prediction.

On a last note, both YOU and SKip seem to have a real hard on for
NOAA weather. I on the other hand, an intellegent person having
compleed sucessfully several graduate level statistis courses have
the uderstanding to use the data from the Ocean Prediction Center with
excellent results.

Ya might try the most important weather predection instrument you
have.....................................

THE WINDOW......... now just take a good look !

Bob

On Sun, 20 Apr 2008 21:56:36 -0700 (PDT), Bob
wrote:

I live in the PNW and instruct nearly 100 state
university studnts each term.

You teach meteorology in the Pacific North Wet ? That has got to be
the easiest job on the world.

What a joke. Do you differentiate between types of rain ?

Monday forecast: rainy, mostly type A

Tuesday: rainy, mostly type A, interspersed with scattered B

Wednesday: A lot like Monday and Tuesday

Thursday: " " " "

Wayne.B wrote:
On Sun, 20 Apr 2008 21:56:36 -0700 (PDT), Bob
wrote:

I live in the PNW and instruct nearly 100 state
university studnts each term.

You teach meteorology in the Pacific North Wet ? That has got to be
the easiest job on the world.

What a joke. Do you differentiate between types of rain ?

Monday forecast: rainy, mostly type A

Tuesday: rainy, mostly type A, interspersed with scattered B

Wednesday: A lot like Monday and Tuesday

Thursday: " " " "

Wrong! It snowed the last 2 days! Type "white" type.
Gordon

"Bob" wrote in message
...
Me thinks your off base here. two things:
1) living in colorado has nothing to do with a persons meterological
credentials. I live in the PNW and instruct nearly 100 state
university studnts each term. Humm now how do I do that? with my ass
on a boat? In fact I could even live in CO (god forbid) and still
teach my 100 students, or FL for that matter.

Living in Colorado enhances one's meteorological credentials. NCAR, NOAA,
NIST and several other federal meteorological agencies are headquartered in
Colorado. Then there are the world class universitites, state institutions
and last, but certainly not least a plethora of companies that research and
manufacture many different types of meteorological instruments. Colorado is
the epicenter of meteorology. Colorado also has the most educated and most
fit population of any state in the US.

Glory!

"Bob Crantz" wrote in message
...

"Bob" wrote in message
...
Me thinks your off base here. two things:
1) living in colorado has nothing to do with a persons meterological
credentials. I live in the PNW and instruct nearly 100 state
university studnts each term. Humm now how do I do that? with my ass
on a boat? In fact I could even live in CO (god forbid) and still
teach my 100 students, or FL for that matter.

Living in Colorado enhances one's meteorological credentials. NCAR, NOAA,
NIST and several other federal meteorological agencies are headquartered
in Colorado. Then there are the world class universitites, state
institutions and last, but certainly not least a plethora of companies
that research and manufacture many different types of meteorological
instruments. Colorado is the epicenter of meteorology. Colorado also has
the most educated and most fit population of any state in the US.

Glory!


This is why any Colorado science or technology is suspect:

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/2008...t-draws-10000/

--
Gregory Hall

On Mon, 21 Apr 2008 15:04:25 -0600, "Bob Crantz"
wrote:

Colorado also has the most educated and most
fit population of any state in the US.

Glory!

If true, then the education standard for the US as a whole must be
terrible.

In the 70's a university graduate friend in New Zealand applied for
admission to Colorado State to undertake a Ph.D. He received a very
nice letter informing him that.... "We are sorry but we do accept
applications from students whose first language is not English" - yet
that was all he spoke.

Peter

"Bob" wrote in message
...


Colorado also has the most educated and most
fit population of any state in the US.

Glory!

That's interesting. If true, then the educational standards for the
rest of the US must be terrible.

In the 70's a university graduate friend from New Zealand applied to
Colorado State for admission as a Ph.D. student. He received a nice
letter explaining that.. "We are sorry but we have to decline your
application as we do not accept enrolments from students whose first
language is not English" - yet that was all he spoke.

Peter

On Tue, 22 Apr 2008 09:00:00 +1000, Herodotus
wrote:


"Bob" wrote in message
...


Colorado also has the most educated and most
fit population of any state in the US.

Glory!

That's interesting. If true, then the educational standards for the
rest of the US must be terrible.

In the 70's a university graduate friend from New Zealand applied to
Colorado State for admission as a Ph.D. student. He received a nice
letter explaining that.. "We are sorry but we have to decline your
application as we do not accept enrolments from students whose first
language is not English" - yet that was all he spoke.

Peter


Given that inhabitants of Australia speak "Oz" one would suppose that
an individual from New Zealand would speak "Zed" and thus not be
acceptable to an American collage.


Bruce-in-Bangkok
(correct email address for reply)

On Tue, 22 Apr 2008 08:07:52 +0700, Bruce in Bangkok
wrote:

On Tue, 22 Apr 2008 09:00:00 +1000, Herodotus
wrote:


"Bob" wrote in message
...


Colorado also has the most educated and most
fit population of any state in the US.

Glory!

That's interesting. If true, then the educational standards for the
rest of the US must be terrible.

In the 70's a university graduate friend from New Zealand applied to
Colorado State for admission as a Ph.D. student. He received a nice
letter explaining that.. "We are sorry but we have to decline your
application as we do not accept enrolments from students whose first
language is not English" - yet that was all he spoke.

Peter


Given that inhabitants of Australia speak "Oz" one would suppose that
an individual from New Zealand would speak "Zed" and thus not be
acceptable to an American collage.


Bruce-in-Bangkok
(correct email address for reply)

Hi Bruce,

Ah. So that's why! I had wondered all these years. Andy was very
bright and founded an industry exporting orchard flowers to Japan.

I fly out this afternoon. I simply hate sitting in a plane seat for
all those hours. Curacao-Miami-Dallas-Honolulu-Sydney. Then in a week
or so Sydney-KL. Having an overnight stop at Honolulu.

Asalaam
Peter