The "experts" wrong two years ago when they predicted a very active Atlantic
hurricane season. They were wrong last year when the predicated a well above
average hurricane season. And now these dummies are again predicting an
above average activity hurricane season.

Why should we sailors put any store in forecasts that are demonstrable poor
guesses? What possible good do these faulty forecasts do anybody? It's like
the boy who cried "WOLF" fairy tale. If anything such impotent forecasts
have the opposite of the intended effect. We brush them aside. We think,
"Please get real!".

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbc...010/1086/rss07

Dr. William Gray is out of touch with reality. For one thing he lives in
Colorado - which has never experienced a hurricane. If he were serious he
would move to Texas, Louisiana or Florida so he'd be a little more familiar
with his line of work. His position is untenable. He's sort of like an
ex-pearl diver now living in Kathmandu and trying to guess the pearl harvest
in Hawaii. It's pathetic! It demonstrates the folly of relying too much on
computers and so-called technology while isolating one's self from the
actual climate. Colorado State University? I guess that's in Fort Collins?
Isn't the altitude there about a mile? Maybe Dr. Gray is suffering from
oxygen deficiency. Seems to me people who live at altitude in Colorado are
less intelligent than those who live at sea level. They often suffer from a
host of maladies including high altitude cerebral edema.
http://www.ismmed.org/np_altitude_tutorial.htm

I think Dr. Gray is a bad example for everybody who has the misfortune of
taking him seriously. It takes the willing suspension of belief to even
listen to him. I will continue to do the usual hurricane preparation no
matter the forecast. What I do has served me successfully for 20 years and
all my boats have come through without a scratch. But, of course, my main
course is to put to sea and evade. It's always better to avoid a hurricane
than to be stuck in its projected path with no good options. I've found that
my Swan 68 can easily outrun the typical Atlantic basin hurricane. But, the
safest course is simply sail to the southern hemisphere in the off season
and remain there until the beginning of their season and then sail back to
the northern hemisphere where the season is ending.

Wilbur Hubbard