Morning Edition, March 19, 2008 · Some 3,000 scientific robots that are
plying the ocean have sent home a puzzling message. These diving
instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all over the
past four or five years. That could mean global warming has taken a
breather. Or it could mean scientists aren't quite understanding what
their robots are telling them.

This is puzzling in part because here on the surface of the Earth, the
years since 2003 have been some of the hottest on record. But Josh
Willis at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory says the oceans are what
really matter when it comes to global warming.

In fact, 80 percent to 90 percent of global warming involves heating up
ocean waters. They hold much more heat than the atmosphere can. So
Willis has been studying the ocean with a fleet of robotic instruments
called the Argo system. The buoys can dive 3,000 feet down and measure
ocean temperature. Since the system was fully deployed in 2003, it has
recorded no warming of the global oceans.

"There has been a very slight cooling, but not anything really
significant," Willis says. So the buildup of heat on Earth may be on a
brief hiatus. "Global warming doesn't mean every year will be warmer
than the last. And it may be that we are in a period of less rapid warming."

In recent years, heat has actually been flowing out of the ocean and
into the air. This is a feature of the weather phenomenon known as El
Nino. So it is indeed possible the air has warmed but the ocean has not.
But it's also possible that something more mysterious is going on.

That becomes clear when you consider what's happening to global sea
level. Sea level rises when the oceans get warm because warmer water
expands. This accounts for about half of global sea level rise. So with
the oceans not warming, you would expect to see less sea level rise.
Instead, sea level has risen about half an inch in the past four years.

Willis says some of this water is apparently coming from a recent
increase in the melting rate of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica.

"But in fact there's a little bit of a mystery. We can't account for all
of the sea level increase we've seen over the last three or four years,"
he says.

One possibility is that the sea has, in fact, warmed and expanded — and
scientists are somehow misinterpreting the data from the diving buoys.

But if the aquatic robots are actually telling the right story, that
raises a new question: Where is the extra heat all going?

Kevin Trenberth at the National Center for Atmospheric Research says
it's probably going back out into space. The Earth has a number of
natural thermostats, including clouds, which can either trap heat and
turn up the temperature, or reflect sunlight and help cool the planet.

That can't be directly measured at the moment, however.

"Unfortunately, we don't have adequate tracking of clouds to determine
exactly what role they've been playing during this period," Trenberth says.

Don't panic! They keep changing their minds..

http://www-a.jpl.nasa.gov/news/features.cfm?feature=896
http://www-a.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news....lease=2006-112

On 2008-03-19 18:29:16 -0400, Goofball_star_dot_etal
said:

Don't panic! They keep changing their minds..

http://www-a.jpl.nasa.gov/news/features.cfm?feature=896
http://www-a.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news....lease=2006-112

Naw, it's just they haven't figured out what's really happening, or how
it works, yet.


--
Jere Lull
Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD
Xan's pages: http://web.mac.com/jerelull/iWeb/Xan/
Our BVI trips & tips: http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/

Jere Lull wrote:
Naw, it's just they haven't figured out what's really happening, or how
it works, yet.


If the deep ocean temp data points only go back to 2003, it's not
surprising that there is no measurable warming.
OTOH I've heard several reports that ocean currents have been slowing
measurably, which is not a good sign.

DSK

wrote in message
...
Jere Lull wrote:
Naw, it's just they haven't figured out what's really happening, or how
it works, yet.


If the deep ocean temp data points only go back to 2003, it's not
surprising that there is no measurable warming.
OTOH I've heard several reports that ocean currents have been slowing
measurably, which is not a good sign.

DSK


That's not good. That, along with the melting of the permafrost, is going to
make it tough to overcome.

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

On 2008-03-19 22:25:26 -0400, said:

Jere Lull wrote:
Naw, it's just they haven't figured out what's really happening, or how
it works, yet.


If the deep ocean temp data points only go back to 2003, it's not
surprising that there is no measurable warming.
OTOH I've heard several reports that ocean currents have been slowing
measurably, which is not a good sign.

A few years ago, I had a long conversation with an oceanologist
studying the Atlantic (counter current?) -- the one that drops in the
Arctic and slowly drops to near the equator along the bottom of the
Atlantic. Interesting talk about something just starting to be
investigated.

There's so much we still don't understand about Momma Earth, so much
undiscovered, unknown.

Extrapolating from the eye-blink of time we've been studying the system
is like predicting exactly where a moving jet ski will be in five
minutes -- after watching it for a mere second.

For all we know, those "historical records" that "prove" the theories
have been wrongly interpreted because of assumptions based upon our
incomplete understanding.

--
Jere Lull
Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD
Xan's pages: http://web.mac.com/jerelull/iWeb/Xan/
Our BVI trips & tips: http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/

Jere Lull wrote:
On 2008-03-19 22:25:26 -0400, said:

Jere Lull wrote:
Naw, it's just they haven't figured out what's really happening, or how
it works, yet.


If the deep ocean temp data points only go back to 2003, it's not
surprising that there is no measurable warming.
OTOH I've heard several reports that ocean currents have been slowing
measurably, which is not a good sign.

A few years ago, I had a long conversation with an oceanologist studying
the Atlantic (counter current?) -- the one that drops in the Arctic and
slowly drops to near the equator along the bottom of the Atlantic.
Interesting talk about something just starting to be investigated.

There's so much we still don't understand about Momma Earth, so much
undiscovered, unknown.

Extrapolating from the eye-blink of time we've been studying the system
is like predicting exactly where a moving jet ski will be in five
minutes -- after watching it for a mere second.

For all we know, those "historical records" that "prove" the theories
have been wrongly interpreted because of assumptions based upon our
incomplete understanding.

Oh well, let's get rid of all the cars and factories anyway and go back
to the stone age just for the fun of it!

Stephen

On Tue, 18 Mar 2008 17:00:06 -0500, Red wrote:

Morning Edition, March 19, 2008 · Some 3,000 scientific robots that are
plying the ocean have sent home a puzzling message. These diving
instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all over the
past four or five years. That could mean global warming has taken a
breather.

snip

http://www.thestar.com/sciencetech/E...article/346761

nothing like a little empirical evidence...

"mister b" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 18 Mar 2008 17:00:06 -0500, Red wrote:

Morning Edition, March 19, 2008 · Some 3,000 scientific robots that are
plying the ocean have sent home a puzzling message. These diving
instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all over the
past four or five years. That could mean global warming has taken a
breather.

snip

http://www.thestar.com/sciencetech/E...article/346761

nothing like a little empirical evidence...


But, the good news is that there'll be more sailing grounds available.

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com