"hpeer" wrote in message
m...
To hell with Gore. Never saw the movie and don't care to. Gore is trying
to sensationalize it and goad people into action. He is only for the
converted. He is NOT a source authoritative info.

Still, my take on this is that serious researchers converge on there
being significant global warming. The conversation has moved from "if" to
"how sever."

I have been following this topic on another site for some time. There has
been a LOT of rancor over whether or not GW is happening. For what it is
worth I have been convinced that it is an issue of concern.

Take a look at the sites I listed above. They are mainstream government
programs.

The Earth has been warming for the last 12,000 years, give or take. Had it
not been, we wouldn't be here but the skiing would be fantastic.

The only constant in the Earth's climate is change. Always has been, always
will be.

"KLC Lewis" wrote in message
et...

"hpeer" wrote in message
m...
To hell with Gore. Never saw the movie and don't care to. Gore is
trying to sensationalize it and goad people into action. He is only for
the converted. He is NOT a source authoritative info.

Still, my take on this is that serious researchers converge on there
being significant global warming. The conversation has moved from "if"
to "how sever."

I have been following this topic on another site for some time. There
has been a LOT of rancor over whether or not GW is happening. For what
it is worth I have been convinced that it is an issue of concern.

Take a look at the sites I listed above. They are mainstream government
programs.

The Earth has been warming for the last 12,000 years, give or take. Had it
not been, we wouldn't be here but the skiing would be fantastic.

The only constant in the Earth's climate is change. Always has been,
always will be.



Big difference between normal trends and those that have taken place since
the Industrial Rev. era. The science is pretty conclusive at this point that
we've got a serious problem. It's not just about warming. There has and will
continue to be much larger fluctuations in conditions, among other things.

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

The Earth has been warming for the last 12,000 years, give or take. Had it
not been, we wouldn't be here but the skiing would be fantastic.

The only constant in the Earth's climate is change. Always has been, always
will be.



I think the bigger problem is not whether we're warming or cooling,
the problem is the premise that it's human caused and human fixable.
Gordon

"hpeer" wrote in message
m...
Keith nuttle wrote:
Keith nuttle wrote:
hpeer wrote:
Wilbur Hubbard wrote:
http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834

Sea ice at same levels as 1979. Another nail in the coffin of global
warming alarmists and kook believers.

Wilbur Hubbard


Wilbur,

Interesting article. It seems we have the battle of the institutes
going on here.

It seems your report is coming from the University of Illinois Arctic
Climate Research Center.

But..............

If you go to the National Snow and Ice Data Center you get a very
different picture.

They report that the ice growth period has ended with the growth being
"much slower, and should continue to slow"

They have an Arctic Ice Sea Extent graphic that compares the current ice
cover to both the 1979 to 2000 average and the 2006/7 extent. This
graph is updated daily. It shows that the ice extent is far below the
19792-2000 average and that it matches to 2006/7 (record low) minimum.

Then there is the additional concern that, since last years record low,
this cover is predominantly new ice (thin - low volume), not old
multi-year ice (thick - high volume.) Consequently the prediction is
that this summer will see an early breakup and further deterioration of
the overall ice cover.

Perhaps you would like to take a look for yourself at:

www.nsidc.org/articseaicenews/

Or, if you prefer, you could look to the Canadian ice site, 30 day
outlook which says (in part)

The freeze up pattern in the Gulf of Boothia region is very unusual this
year as new ice has barely started to form whereas one would typically
expect the area to be totally covered with new ice by now.

http://ice-glaces.ec.ge.ca

THEN I WENT TO THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS ARCTIC CLIMATE RESEARCH CENTER
SITE (ARCTIC.ATMOS.UIUC.EDU) AND FOUND THIS AT THE TOP OF THEIR PAGE.

Arctic temperature trend
Recent observed surface air temperature changes over the Arctic region
are the largest in the world. Winter (DJF) rates of warming exceed 4
degrees C. over portions of the Arctic land areas (shown left). We
provide Arctic temperature trends and changes of other primary surface
variables (e.g., sea level pressure, precipitation, sea ice cover)
archived in this climate summary, portions of which are published each
year in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Sea ice extent averaged over the Northern Hemisphere has decreased
correspondingly over the past 50 years (shown right). The largest change
has been observed in the summer months with decreases exceeding 30%.
Decreases observed in winter are more modest. We maintain this updated
archive of sea ice concentrations and extents at the University of
Illinois Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

Cheers
I think that what you are seeing is what the Goreilites ignore, that
there is not a consensus on global warming. Climate studies are in their
infancy, and the millions of variables involved in global weather are not
understood. When computer models take a few of the know variable and try
to predict they show trends but not necessarily the correct trend,
because all of the variables and their strength are not included.

If you take any set of random data, and run it through the correct
program, you may find trends, but because the data is random do not
exist.

There are many good sites that show the current research papers on the
climate with out gorealizing the results.



hpeer wrote:
Wilbur Hubbard wrote:
http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834

Sea ice at same levels as 1979. Another nail in the coffin of global
warming alarmists and kook believers.

Wilbur Hubbard


Wilbur,

Interesting article. It seems we have the battle of the institutes
going on here.

It seems your report is coming from the University of Illinois Arctic
Climate Research Center.

But..............

If you go to the National Snow and Ice Data Center you get a very
different picture.

They report that the ice growth period has ended with the growth being
"much slower, and should continue to slow"

They have an Arctic Ice Sea Extent graphic that compares the current ice
cover to both the 1979 to 2000 average and the 2006/7 extent. This
graph is updated daily. It shows that the ice extent is far below the
19792-2000 average and that it matches to 2006/7 (record low) minimum.

Then there is the additional concern that, since last years record low,
this cover is predominantly new ice (thin - low volume), not old
multi-year ice (thick - high volume.) Consequently the prediction is
that this summer will see an early breakup and further deterioration of
the overall ice cover.

Perhaps you would like to take a look for yourself at:

www.nsidc.org/articseaicenews/

Or, if you prefer, you could look to the Canadian ice site, 30 day
outlook which says (in part)

The freeze up pattern in the Gulf of Boothia region is very unusual this
year as new ice has barely started to form whereas one would typically
expect the area to be totally covered with new ice by now.

http://ice-glaces.ec.ge.ca

THEN I WENT TO THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS ARCTIC CLIMATE RESEARCH CENTER
SITE (ARCTIC.ATMOS.UIUC.EDU) AND FOUND THIS AT THE TOP OF THEIR PAGE.

Arctic temperature trend
Recent observed surface air temperature changes over the Arctic region
are the largest in the world. Winter (DJF) rates of warming exceed 4
degrees C. over portions of the Arctic land areas (shown left). We
provide Arctic temperature trends and changes of other primary surface
variables (e.g., sea level pressure, precipitation, sea ice cover)
archived in this climate summary, portions of which are published each
year in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Sea ice extent averaged over the Northern Hemisphere has decreased
correspondingly over the past 50 years (shown right). The largest change
has been observed in the summer months with decreases exceeding 30%.
Decreases observed in winter are more modest. We maintain this updated
archive of sea ice concentrations and extents at the University of
Illinois Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

Cheers
I think that what you are seeing is what the Goreilites ignore, that
there is not a consensus on global warming. Climate studies are in their
infancy, and the millions of variables involved in global weather are not
understood. When computer models take a few of the know variable and try
to predict they show trends but not necessarily the correct trend,
because all of the variables and their strength are not included.

If you take any set of random data, and run it through the correct
program, you may find trends, but because the data is random do not
exist.

There are many good sites that show the current research papers on the
climate with out gorealizing the results.



To hell with Gore. Never saw the movie and don't care to. Gore is trying
to sensationalize it and goad people into action. He is only for the
converted. He is NOT a source authoritative info.

Still, my take on this is that serious researchers converge on there
being significant global warming. The conversation has moved from "if" to
"how sever."

I have been following this topic on another site for some time. There has
been a LOT of rancor over whether or not GW is happening. For what it is
worth I have been convinced that it is an issue of concern.

Take a look at the sites I listed above. They are mainstream government
programs.


Keith has the same nuttle as Neal (aka Wilbur).

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

On Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:16:10 -0500, hpeer wrote
this crap:

To hell with Gore. Never saw the movie and don't care to. Gore is
trying to sensationalize it and goad people into action. He is only for
the converted. He is NOT a source authoritative info.


Gotta agree with you. In my town, the council is bitching because
they are paying too much for road salt. The last series of winters
have been so wicked, that all cities are buying lots of salt, and the
supplies are running slow, and the prices are going up.




I'm Horvath and I approve of this post.

Bloody Horvath wrote:
On Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:16:10 -0500, hpeer wrote
this crap:

To hell with Gore. Never saw the movie and don't care to. Gore is
trying to sensationalize it and goad people into action. He is only for
the converted. He is NOT a source authoritative info.


Gotta agree with you. In my town, the council is bitching because
they are paying too much for road salt. The last series of winters
have been so wicked, that all cities are buying lots of salt, and the
supplies are running slow, and the prices are going up.




I'm Horvath and I approve of this post.

That may be. Local disturbances are all over the place. Statistical
data points can be all over the place, it is the long term trends that
are of significance. The usual attack on these types of reports is to
cite the difference between "weather" and "climate. My sister, living
in Newfoundland, has been griping that it is too damn warm up there.
And has been for most of the last few years.

If you were to look at the site of the researchers cited in Wilbur's
post you will find that they are concerned about the effects of GW.

As I said, my review has led to the conclusion that the arctic ice sheet
is BOTH losing surface area and thinning. The VAST majority of
information sources lead in one direction, Global Warming. Even
Wilbur's cited experts.

Wilbur Hubbard wrote:
http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834

Sea ice at same levels as 1979. Another nail in the coffin of global
warming alarmists and kook believers.

Wilbur Hubbard



From the National Snow and Ice Data Center

http://www.nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

2008 year in review

Arctic sea ice in 2008 was notable for several reasons. The year
continued the negative trend in summer sea ice extent, with the
second-lowest summer minimum since record-keeping began in 1979. 2008
sea ice also showed well-below-average ice extents throughout the entire
year.

The ice cover in 2008 began the year heavily influenced by the
record-breaking 2007 melt season. Because so much ice had melted out
during the previous summer, a vast expanse of ocean was exposed to low
winter air temperatures, encouraging ice growth. Although still well
below average, March 2008 saw slightly greater ice extent at the annual
maximum than measured in recent years. However, the ice was also thin:
less than a year old and vulnerable to melting in summer. Even the
geographic North Pole was covered with thin ice, capturing the
imaginations of many in the media and general public.

Would 2008 break the 2007 record low summer minimum extent? Would the
geographic North Pole be ice free for the first time in the satellite
era? From May through July, cooler temperatures and winds less
favorable to ice loss slowed the decline in ice extent. Nevertheless, by
August the rate of ice loss was much faster than average—even faster
than in 2007—as the effects of a warm Arctic Ocean worked against the
thin ice cover. The melt season became a race: waning sunlight versus
rapid ice loss.

Ultimately, summer 2008 finished with the second-lowest minimum extent
in the satellite record, 9% above the 2007 minimum and 34% below
average. A more diffuse ice cover and a thinner pack nevertheless
suggested a record-low ice volume (ice area multiplied by thickness) at
the end of summer.

As the sun set in the Arctic with the advent of autumn, seasonal ice
growth was initially quite rapid, but slowed during early November.
Average ice extent in December was well below average and very close to
that measured in 2007. Heading into 2009, the Arctic sea ice cover is
again young and thin; given this set-up, a continuation of
well-below-average sea ice extent in 2009 is a near certainty.

Wilbur Hubbard wrote:
http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834

Sea ice at same levels as 1979. Another nail in the coffin of global
warming alarmists and kook believers.

Wilbur Hubbard



From the National Snow and Ice Data Center

http://www.nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

2008 year in review

Arctic sea ice in 2008 was notable for several reasons. The year
continued the negative trend in summer sea ice extent, with the
second-lowest summer minimum since record-keeping began in 1979. 2008
sea ice also showed well-below-average ice extents throughout the entire
year.

The ice cover in 2008 began the year heavily influenced by the
record-breaking 2007 melt season. Because so much ice had melted out
during the previous summer, a vast expanse of ocean was exposed to low
winter air temperatures, encouraging ice growth. Although still well
below average, March 2008 saw slightly greater ice extent at the annual
maximum than measured in recent years. However, the ice was also thin:
less than a year old and vulnerable to melting in summer. Even the
geographic North Pole was covered with thin ice, capturing the
imaginations of many in the media and general public.

Would 2008 break the 2007 record low summer minimum extent? Would the
geographic North Pole be ice free for the first time in the satellite
era? From May through July, cooler temperatures and winds less
favorable to ice loss slowed the decline in ice extent. Nevertheless, by
August the rate of ice loss was much faster than average—even faster
than in 2007—as the effects of a warm Arctic Ocean worked against the
thin ice cover. The melt season became a race: waning sunlight versus
rapid ice loss.


Oh, and this too from the same people.

http://nsidc.org/sotc/sea_ice.html

DECLINE CAUSES

Greenhouse gases emitted through human activities and the resulting
increase in global mean temperatures are the most likely underlying
cause of the sea ice decline, but the direct cause is a complicated
combination of factors resulting from the warming, and from climate
variability. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a see-saw pattern of
alternating atmospheric pressure at polar and mid-latitudes. The
positive phase produces a strong polar vortex, with the mid-latitude jet
stream shifted northward. The negative phase produces the opposite
conditions. From the 1950s to the 1980s, the AO flipped between positive
and negative phases, but it entered a strong positive pattern between
1989 and 1995. So the acceleration in the sea ice decline since the mid
1990s may have been partly triggered by the strongly positive AO mode
during the preceding years (Rigor et al. 2002 and Rigor and Wallace
2004) that flushed older, thicker ice out of the Arctic, but other
factors also played a role.

Since the mid-1990s, the AO has largely been a neutral or negative
phase, and the late 1990s and early 2000s brought a weakening of the
Beaufort Gyre. However, the longevity of ice in the gyre began to change
as a result of warming along the Alaskan and Siberian coasts. In the
past, sea ice in this gyre could remain in the Arctic for many years,
thickening over time. Beginning in the late 1990s, sea ice began melting
in the southern arm of the gyre, thanks to warmer air temperatures and
more extensive summer melt north of Alaska and Siberia. Moreover, ice
movement out of the Arctic through Fram Strait continued at a high rate
despite the change in the AO. Thus warming conditions and wind patterns
have been the main drivers of the steeper decline since the late 1990s.
Sea ice may not be able to recover under the current persistently warm
conditions, and a tipping point may have been passed where the Arctic
will eventually be ice-free during at least part of the summer (Lindsay
and Zhang 2005).

Examination of the long-term satellite record dating back to 1979 and
earlier records dating back to the 1950s indicate that spring melt
seasons have started earlier and continued for a longer period
throughout the year (Serreze et al. 2007). Even more disquieting,
comparison of actual Arctic sea ice decline to IPCC AR4 projections show
that observed ice loss is faster than any of the IPCC AR4 models have
predicted (Stroeve et al. 2007).

Ultimately, summer 2008 finished with the second-lowest minimum extent
in the satellite record, 9% above the 2007 minimum and 34% below
average. A more diffuse ice cover and a thinner pack nevertheless
suggested a record-low ice volume (ice area multiplied by thickness) at
the end of summer.

As the sun set in the Arctic with the advent of autumn, seasonal ice
growth was initially quite rapid, but slowed during early November.
Average ice extent in December was well below average and very close to
that measured in 2007. Heading into 2009, the Arctic sea ice cover is
again young and thin; given this set-up, a continuation of
well-below-average sea ice extent in 2009 is a near certainty.

Wilbur Hubbard wrote:
http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834

Sea ice at same levels as 1979. Another nail in the coffin of global
warming alarmists and kook believers.

Wilbur Hubbard



The Frightening New Evidence Scientists Have Just Learned About Global
Warming
By Steve Connor, Independent UK
Posted on January 13, 2009, Printed on January 16, 2009
http://www.alternet.org/story/113354/

Scientists have found the first unequivocal evidence that the Arctic
region is warming at a faster rate than the rest of the world at least a
decade before it was predicted to happen.

Climate-change researchers have found that air temperatures in the
region are higher than would be normally expected during the autumn
because the increased melting of the summer Arctic sea ice is
accumulating heat in the ocean. The phenomenon, known as Arctic
amplification, was not expected to be seen for at least another 10 or 15
years and the findings will further raise concerns that the Arctic has
already passed the climatic tipping-point towards ice-free summers,
beyond which it may not recover.

The Arctic is considered one of the most sensitive regions in terms of
climate change and its transition to another climatic state will have a
direct impact on other parts of the northern hemisphere, as well more
indirect effects around the world.

Although researchers have documented a catastrophic loss of sea ice
during the summer months over the past 20 years, they have not until now
detected the definitive temperature signal that they could link with
greenhouse-gas emissions.

However, in a study to be presented later today to the annual meeting of
the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, scientists will show
that Arctic amplification has been under way for the past five years,
and it will continue to intensify Arctic warming for the foreseeable future.

Computer models of the global climate have for years suggested the
Arctic will warm at a faster rate than the rest of the world due to
Arctic amplification but many scientists believed this effect would only
become measurable in the coming decades.

However, a study by scientists from the US National Snow and Ice Data
Centre (NSIDC) in Colorado has found that amplification is already
showing up as a marked increase in surface air temperatures within the
Arctic region during the autumn period, when the sea ice begins to
reform after the summer melting period.

Julienne Stroeve, of the NSIDC, who led the study with her colleague
Mark Serreze, said that autumn air temperatures this year and in recent
years have been anomalously high. The Arctic Ocean warmed more than
usual because heat from the sun was absorbed more easily by the dark
areas of open water compared to the highly reflective surface of a
frozen sea. "Autumn 2008 saw very strong surface temperature anomalies
over the areas where the sea ice was lost," Dr Stroeve told The
Independent ahead of her presentation today.

"The observed autumn warming that we've seen over the Arctic Ocean, not
just this year but over the past five years or so, represents Arctic
amplification, the notion that rises in surface air temperatures in
response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will be
larger in the Arctic than elsewhere over the globe," she said. "The
warming climate is leading to more open water in the Arctic Ocean. As
these open water areas develop through spring and summer, they absorb
most of the sun's energy, leading to ocean warming.

"In autumn, as the sun sets in the Arctic, most of the heat that was
gained in the ocean during summer is released back to the atmosphere,
acting to warm the atmosphere. It is this heat-release back to the
atmosphere that gives us Arctic amplification."

Temperature readings for this October were significantly higher than
normal across the entire Arctic region – between 3C and 5C above average
– but some areas were dramatically higher. In the Beaufort Sea, north of
Alaska, for instance, near-surface air temperatures were more than 7C
higher than normal for this time of year. The scientists believe the
only reasonable explanation for such high autumn readings is that the
ocean heat accumulated during the summer because of the loss of sea ice
is being released back into the atmosphere from the sea before winter
sea ice has chance to reform.

"One of the reasons we focus on Arctic amplification is that it is a
good test of greenhouse warming theory. Even our earliest climate models
were telling us that we should see this Arctic amplification emerge as
we lose the summer ice cover," Dr Stroeve said. "This is exactly what we
are not starting to see in the observations. Simply put, it's a case of
we hate to say we told you so, but we did," she added.

Computer models have also predicted totally ice-free summers in the
Arctic by 2070, but many scientists now believe that the first ice-free
summer could occur far earlier than this, perhaps within the next 20 years.

© 2009 Independent UK All rights reserved.
View this story online at: http://www.alternet.org/story/113354/

On Jan 16, 6:31*pm, hpeer wrote:
Wilbur Hubbard wrote:
http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834

Sea ice at same levels as 1979. *Another nail in the coffin of global
warming alarmists and kook believers.

Wilbur Hubbard

The Frightening New Evidence Scientists Have Just Learned About Global
Warming
By Steve Connor, Independent UK
Posted on January 13, 2009, Printed on January 16, 2009http://www.alternet.org/story/113354/

Scientists have found the first unequivocal evidence that the Arctic
region is warming at a faster rate than the rest of the world at least a
decade before it was predicted to happen.

Climate-change researchers have found that air temperatures in the
region are higher than would be normally expected during the autumn
because the increased melting of the summer Arctic sea ice is
accumulating heat in the ocean. The phenomenon, known as Arctic
amplification, was not expected to be seen for at least another 10 or 15
years and the findings will further raise concerns that the Arctic has
already passed the climatic tipping-point towards ice-free summers,
beyond which it may not recover.

The Arctic is considered one of the most sensitive regions in terms of
climate change and its transition to another climatic state will have a
direct impact on other parts of the northern hemisphere, as well more
indirect effects around the world.

Although researchers have documented a catastrophic loss of sea ice
during the summer months over the past 20 years, they have not until now
detected the definitive temperature signal that they could link with
greenhouse-gas emissions.

However, in a study to be presented later today to the annual meeting of
the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, scientists will show
that Arctic amplification has been under way for the past five years,
and it will continue to intensify Arctic warming for the foreseeable future.

Computer models of the global climate have for years suggested the
Arctic will warm at a faster rate than the rest of the world due to
Arctic amplification but many scientists believed this effect would only
become measurable in the coming decades.

However, a study by scientists from the US National Snow and Ice Data
Centre (NSIDC) in Colorado has found that amplification is already
showing up as a marked increase in surface air temperatures within the
Arctic region during the autumn period, when the sea ice begins to
reform after the summer melting period.

Julienne Stroeve, of the NSIDC, who led the study with her colleague
Mark Serreze, said that autumn air temperatures this year and in recent
years have been anomalously high. The Arctic Ocean warmed more than
usual because heat from the sun was absorbed more easily by the dark
areas of open water compared to the highly reflective surface of a
frozen sea. "Autumn 2008 saw very strong surface temperature anomalies
over the areas where the sea ice was lost," Dr Stroeve told The
Independent ahead of her presentation today.

"The observed autumn warming that we've seen over the Arctic Ocean, not
just this year but over the past five years or so, represents Arctic
amplification, the notion that rises in surface air temperatures in
response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will be
larger in the Arctic than elsewhere over the globe," she said. "The
warming climate is leading to more open water in the Arctic Ocean. As
these open water areas develop through spring and summer, they absorb
most of the sun's energy, leading to ocean warming.

"In autumn, as the sun sets in the Arctic, most of the heat that was
gained in the ocean during summer is released back to the atmosphere,
acting to warm the atmosphere. It is this heat-release back to the
atmosphere that gives us Arctic amplification."

Temperature readings for this October were significantly higher than
normal across the entire Arctic region – between 3C and 5C above average
– but some areas were dramatically higher. In the Beaufort Sea, north of
Alaska, for instance, near-surface air temperatures were more than 7C
higher than normal for this time of year. The scientists believe the
only reasonable explanation for such high autumn readings is that the
ocean heat accumulated during the summer because of the loss of sea ice
is being released back into the atmosphere from the sea before winter
sea ice has chance to reform.

"One of the reasons we focus on Arctic amplification is that it is a
good test of greenhouse warming theory. Even our earliest climate models
were telling us that we should see this Arctic amplification emerge as
we lose the summer ice cover," Dr Stroeve said. "This is exactly what we
are not starting to see in the observations. Simply put, it's a case of
we hate to say we told you so, but we did," she added.

Computer models have also predicted totally ice-free summers in the
Arctic by 2070, but many scientists now believe that the first ice-free
summer could occur far earlier than this, perhaps within the next 20 years.

© 2009 Independent UK All rights reserved.
View this story online at:http://www.alternet.org/story/113354/

but you dont understand...... Fox News would never lie.