The question is not if a hurricane hits New
York, but when...

I predict complacency similar to New Orleans,
screw ups, followed by blaming the federal
government.
************************************************** *

What's In Store For New York's Future?

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/...ne_future.html

According to the United States Landfalling
Hurricane Probability Project:

* 21% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in
2007. Normal value is 16%.
* 15% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a hurricane in 2007. Normal
value is 9%.
* 6% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3
or more) in 2007. Normal value is 4%.

* 99% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane
in the next 50 years.
* 73% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a hurricane in the next 50 years.
* 26% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3
or more) in the next 50 years.

A major obstacle to overcome is public
complacency. Approximately 78.5% of current
New York State coastal residents have never
experienced a major hurricane (Hughes). One
must remember that in 1938, Long Island was
mostly undeveloped. The next time a major
hurricane hits, it will be impacting a highly-
urbanized region. The last two hurricanes
were mild in comparison to the Great Hurricane
of 1938. August 19, 1991, Hurricane Bob
(category 2) brushed the eastern tip of Long
Island and moved into southeastern New
England. Because most of Long Island was
on the western side of the storm, winds were
category 1 strength and the storm surge was
minimal.

September 27, 1985, Hurricane Gloria
(category 2*) moved across the center of
Long Island causing much tree damage and
beach erosion. In informal surveys, most
people believe that this was a "major hurricane"
in the category 3 class when in fact it was a
moderate category 2 event. Therefore, there
is a misguided sense that Long Island can
withstand "strong" hurricanes with only minor
inconveniences because few have ever
experienced a major hurricane.

*Hurricane category is typically assigned based
on the maximum sustained wind speed. Gloria
hit Long Island with a maximum sustained wind
speed of 85 mph which meant it was officially
assigned to category 1. However, due to the
rapid forward speed of the storm, winds to the
east of the eye were 110+ mph which would
place Gloria as a category 2/3 storm. Therefore,
Hurricane Gloria is now officially considered a
category 2 storm. (Thank you to Kathleen
Nolan for notifying me of this upgrade in category
after the fact.) 15 Costliest Hurricanes

Christopher Landsea, a meteorologist at the
Hurricane Research Division, and Roger A.
Pielke, a social scientist at NCAR, looked at
the most destructive U.S. hurricanes on record
and predicted the cost if these storms were to
hit today. The diagram to the right shows quite
clearly that the northeast U.S., especially the
Long Island and New York City regions, would
suffer greatly. Of the 15 "worst" storms, Long
Island would be affected by five of them and the
1938 hurricane today would be considered the
6th costliest of all time. In 1998 dollars, the
damage would be nearly $18 billion. Of all the
natural disasters in the United States, hurricanes
account for about two-thirds of the insured
property losses (USGS, 1998).

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/..._bar_graph.jpg

Storm Surge Maps

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/...urge_maps.html

Hurricane Camille Storm surge damage pictures

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/.../richelieu.gif


Click for Larger Image Coastal New York state
is second only behind Florida for the amount of
insured coastal property (Insurance Institute for
Property Loss Reduction (IIPLR) and Insurance
Research Council, 1995) so future hurricanes
may have severe economic impact.
Click the graph to the left for larger view.


Experts now believe that after Miami and New
Orleans, New York City is considered the third
most dangerous major city for the next hurricane
disaster. According to a 1990 study by the US
Army Corps of Engineers, the city has some
unique and potentially lethal features. New York's
major bridges such as the Verrazano Narrows
and the George Washington are so high that
they would experience hurricane force winds
well before those winds were felt at sea-level
locations. Therefore, these escape routes would
have to be closed well before ground-level
bridges (Time, 1998). The two ferry services
across the Long Island Sound would also be
shut down 6-12 hours before the storm surge
invaded the waters around Long Island, further
decreasing the potential for evacuation.

A storm surge prediction program used by
forecasters called SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and
Overland Surge from Hurricanes) has predicted
that in a category 4 hurricane, John F. Kennedy
International Airport would be under 20 feet of
water and sea water would pour through the
Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels and into
the city's subways throughout lower Manhattan.
The report did not estimate casualties, but did
state that storms "that would present low to
moderate hazards in other regions of the country
could result in heavy loss of life" in the New York
City area (Time, 1998).

Some of the key observations from the storm
surge maps for Nassau and Suffolk Counties:

* Category 1 hurricanes inundate just about
all of the immediate south shore of the Island,
including the north side of Great South Bay
locations and both sides of the north and south
forks.
* Montauk Highway (RT. 27A) is completely
covered by flood waters during a Category 3
hurricane. Therefore, this road would be
considered impassable during the storm.
* The highest storm surges (Category 4)
would occur in the following regions:
o Amityville Harbor - 29 feet
o Atlantic Beach & Long Beach
areas - 24 to 28 feet
o South Oyster Bay, Middle Bay,
& East Bay areas - 24 to 28 feet
* Montauk Point is completely cut off
from rest of south fork during a category 1
storm.
* Much of the north and south forks are
entirely under water during a category 3
hurricane.

Given public complacency, the amount of
people needed to evacuate, the few evacuation
routes off Long Island, and the considerable
area affected by storm surge, more lead-time
is needed for a proper evacuation than in other
parts of the country. However, east coast
hurricanes are normally caught up in the very
fast winds aloft, called the jet stream, so they
can move up the coast at great speeds - much
faster than hurricanes that impact the southern
U.S. In fact, the 1938 Hurricane moved at
forward speeds in excess of 60 mph. To this
day the Long Island Express holds the forward
speed record for any Atlantic hurricane.

Surviving "Day One" of the hurricane is only
part of the concern. Most people away from
the coast believe that they are far enough
inland to be safe from hurricanes. In one s
ense that is true for the immediate effects
of the hurricane. However, most of these
inland residents fail to realize that their daily
lives will be severely impacted for weeks or
months. Employees will not be able to get to
work due to downed trees and widespread
power outages may shut down the economy
for quite a long time. According to the LIPA
Forecasts Hurricane Outages & Recovery,
Sept. 10, 2003, a direct hit by a Category 3
hurricane could cause some 750,000 to
1,000,000 power outages island-wide. And,
it could take 15 to 30 days to restore service
to all customers, or at least to those customers
whose homes or businesses were not destroyed.


Recap of the history of the 1938 Long Island
Express.
http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/...istory_38.html

On Sun, 27 May 2007 20:35:05 -0700, Bart wrote:

The question is not if a hurricane hits New York, but when...

I predict complacency similar to New Orleans, screw ups, followed by
blaming the federal government.
************************************************** *

What's In Store For New York's Future?

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/...ne_future.html

According to the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability
Project:

* 21% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in 2007. Normal value is
16%.
* 15% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a hurricane in 2007. Normal value is 9%.
* 6% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in 2007. Normal
value is 4%.

* 99% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane
in the next 50 years.
* 73% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a hurricane in the next 50 years.
* 26% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in the next 50
years.

Perhaps it's only me, but those numbers don't seem all that scary.
Although, I'm a little curious how there is only a 26% probability of a
Cat 3 in the next 50 years, and a 6% probability this year.

Experts now believe that after Miami and New Orleans, New York City is
considered the third most dangerous major city for the next hurricane
disaster. According to a 1990 study by the US Army Corps of Engineers,
the city has some unique and potentially lethal features.

NYC also has some geographically protective features, namely New Jersey
and North Carolina. Due to the general eastward curvature of a
hurricane's track north of N. Carolina, a direct hit on NYC is rare. To
my knowledge, there has only been one modern hurricane that passed
directly over NYC, and that was back in 1821. That being said, there is
no doubt a Cat 3 or above hitting NYC would be extremely devastating.



New York's
major bridges such as the Verrazano Narrows and the George Washington
are so high that they would experience hurricane force winds well before
those winds were felt at sea-level locations. Therefore, these escape
routes would have to be closed well before ground-level bridges (Time,
1998). The two ferry services across the Long Island Sound would also be
shut down 6-12 hours before the storm surge invaded the waters around
Long Island, further decreasing the potential for evacuation.

Long Island is a different matter. They have been hit regularly, and you
do know what is on the other side of LIS.

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hez_tool/sta...nnecticut.html

NOAA has a great tool for viewing historical hurricane tracks.

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html