On Sun, 27 May 2007 20:35:05 -0700, Bart wrote:

The question is not if a hurricane hits New York, but when...

I predict complacency similar to New Orleans, screw ups, followed by
blaming the federal government.
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What's In Store For New York's Future?

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/...ne_future.html

According to the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability
Project:

* 21% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in 2007. Normal value is
16%.
* 15% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a hurricane in 2007. Normal value is 9%.
* 6% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in 2007. Normal
value is 4%.

* 99% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane
in the next 50 years.
* 73% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a hurricane in the next 50 years.
* 26% probability that NY City/Long Island
will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in the next 50
years.

Perhaps it's only me, but those numbers don't seem all that scary.
Although, I'm a little curious how there is only a 26% probability of a
Cat 3 in the next 50 years, and a 6% probability this year.

Experts now believe that after Miami and New Orleans, New York City is
considered the third most dangerous major city for the next hurricane
disaster. According to a 1990 study by the US Army Corps of Engineers,
the city has some unique and potentially lethal features.

NYC also has some geographically protective features, namely New Jersey
and North Carolina. Due to the general eastward curvature of a
hurricane's track north of N. Carolina, a direct hit on NYC is rare. To
my knowledge, there has only been one modern hurricane that passed
directly over NYC, and that was back in 1821. That being said, there is
no doubt a Cat 3 or above hitting NYC would be extremely devastating.



New York's
major bridges such as the Verrazano Narrows and the George Washington
are so high that they would experience hurricane force winds well before
those winds were felt at sea-level locations. Therefore, these escape
routes would have to be closed well before ground-level bridges (Time,
1998). The two ferry services across the Long Island Sound would also be
shut down 6-12 hours before the storm surge invaded the waters around
Long Island, further decreasing the potential for evacuation.

Long Island is a different matter. They have been hit regularly, and you
do know what is on the other side of LIS.

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hez_tool/sta...nnecticut.html

NOAA has a great tool for viewing historical hurricane tracks.

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html