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#1
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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More lockstep agreement:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...ixnewstop.html The consensus grows and grows!!!!!!!!! |
#6
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Oh those silly bloviators at NOAA!
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html Since our entire climate system is fundamentally driven by energy from the sun, it stands to reason that if the sun's energy output were to change, then so would the climate. Since the advent of space-borne measurements in the late 1970s, solar output has indeed been shown to vary. There appears to be confirmation of earlier suggestions of an 11 (and 22) year cycle of irradiance. With only 20 years of reliable measurements however, it is difficult to deduce a trend. But, from the short record we have so far, the trend in solar irradiance is estimated at ~0.09 W/m2 compared to 0.4 W/m2 from well-mixed greenhouse gases. There are many indications that the sun also has a longer-term variation which has potentially contributed to the century-scale forcing to a greater degree. There is though, a great deal of uncertainty in estimates of solar irradiance beyond what can be measured by satellites, and still the contribution of direct solar irradiance forcing is small compared to the greenhouse gas component. However, our understanding of the indirect effects of changes in solar output and feedbacks in the climate system is minimal. There is much need to refine our understanding of key natural forcing mechanisms of the climate, including solar irradiance changes, in order to reduce uncertainty in our projections of future climate change. In addition to changes in energy from the sun itself, the Earth's position and orientation relative to the sun (our orbit) also varies slightly, thereby bringing us closer and further away from the sun in predictable cycles (called Milankovitch cycles). Variations in these cycles are believed to be the cause of Earth's ice-ages (glacials). Particularly important for the development of glacials is the radiation receipt at high northern latitudes. Diminishing radiation at these latitudes during the summer months would have enabled winter snow and ice cover to persist throughout the year, eventually leading to a permanent snow- or icepack. While Milankovitch cycles have tremendous value as a theory to explain ice-ages and long-term changes in the climate, they are unlikely to have very much impact on the decade-century timescale. Over several centuries, it may be possible to observe the effect of these orbital parameters, however for the prediction of climate change in the 21st century, these changes will be far less important than radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. Obviously oil company shills!!!! If you don't agree with Walt you either: a. Are a bloviator b. Work for an oil company c. Engage in pseudo science! |
#7
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Pseudoscience:
http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/2004ScienceMeeting/SORCE%20WORKSHOP%202004/SESSION_3/3_1_White.pdf#search=%22sun's%20output%20global%20 warming%22 |
#8
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![]() "Gilligan" wrote: Who ****ing cares? My left little finger is damaged beyond all recovery! Where's the attorney buddies when you need them? sigh LP (missing Ellen) |
#9
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![]() "Jeff" wrote in message news:OWkUg.2010$fl.1759@dukeread08... "Gilligan" wrote: Who ****ing cares? My left little finger is damaged beyond all recovery! Where's the attorney buddies when you need them? sigh LP (missing Ellen) How in the hell did that happen on my computer? LP |
#10
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Gilligan wrote:
Consensus indeed! http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...-sunspots.html Do you even bother to read the links you post? 'Cause some of them don't support your case. Mostly the ones from real sources like National Geographic. So, a brief set of clues for you since you seem to be devoid of a ticket on the clue train: o There is overwhelming consensus that the earth is getting warmer. o There is general consensus that human activity (mostly burning fossil fuel) is responsible for some of that warming trend. o There is a variety of opinion on how much of the warming trend is due to naturally occuring processes and how much is due to human activity. Few, if any, scientists claim that it's 100% due to human activity. Likewise, few claim it to be 0%. Consensus is that it's somewhere in the middle, but there is no consensus about exactly where in the middle. o The predictive models are all over the map. Like predicting the weather, making accurate predictions about exactly what is going to happen is far from an exact science. It's like trying to predict the exact path of a superball bouncing down a stairwell - you know it's overall path will be down, but predicting each and every bounce is not possible. Don't expect unanimity here, because you won't get it. As you can see, the scientific community is still hashing out many of the finer points. To point at some of these minor squabbles and say "Look! There's no consensus!" is to entirely miss points one and two above. But I hope you had a good time last night doing the midnight Google thing. You seem to have worked yourself up into quite a lather by the fifth or sixth post. Hope you're happy. Do you ever sail anymore? //Walt |
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