Martin Baxter wrote:
Flying Tadpole wrote:
Gilligan wrote:
? http://msnbc.msn.com/id/15391426/site/newsweek
?
?
. But
of course we have lotsa big computers now, so that's all right, and the
predictions must therefore be much more reliable and accurate. GIGO.

Well things do change, Galileo was eventually proved correct (more or
less):

"The point to remember, says Connolley, is that predictions of global
cooling never approached the kind of widespread scientific consensus
that supports the greenhouse effect today. And for good reason: the
tools scientists have at their disposal now—vastly more data,
incomparably faster computers and infinitely more sophisticated
mathematical models—render any forecasts from 1975 as inoperative as the
predictions being made around the same time about the inevitable triumph
of communism."

Cheers
Marty

Which is a longer-winded way of saying "of course we have lotsa big
computers now, so that's all right, and the
predictions must therefore be much more reliable and accurate." To
which I add "GIGO" because, quite simply, the modelling is a multiple
generation extrapolation (model based on model output based on model
output) using a simply inadequate data base. Too short a time scale
with reliable data.

I was always intrigued when a former client demanded we stop using
simple analytical techniques, with confidence tests based on testable
null hypotheses, on their SO2 problem and start using a surface
modeller, where confidence tests were not applied in the strict sense
and where the model was a generator, not a tester of hypotheses. It was
fun, though, tweaking the various model parameters and treatments to
generate the reverse of what (our) independent observations were indicating.

I discovered, earlier this year, that the absolute best coastal models
applied by supposedly the best Oz modelling scientists could not cope
with longshore drift (==mandatory sailing content) because it was too
close to shore. These are the same people making a "significant global
contribution" to current climate modelling. Yeah. GIGO.

--

Flying Tadpole
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