Hi Gould,

I much appreciate your advice, I realize from the groups that you're a
pro and have even worn the white shoes. grin

But I'm no angry husband shooting out of the bedroom window, just a
bloke looking to sink his loose change into a floating mistress, less
trouble than a walking one - even if it sinks!

I guess all the guidebooks and NADA and BUC etc. are way off in pricing
the boat I want (used to want?) because I've only seen one that did
actually sell at the guidebook price. (Got ready to arrange survey to
find another guy snatch it up faster than me.) Banks which think that
"every boat on the market is pretty well overpriced right now" may not
have it all figured wrong. Consumers have been known to get carried
away in buying stuff for far more than it is worth rationally. Modern
Marketing is chock full of concepts and techniques to get people to
attribute rational value to things for irrational reasons. You can
argue that things are worth what you can get some people to pay -
because the market sets the prices. This is why an egg is worth a
million dollars to a banker in a famine. This is why a glass of water
is worth a billion dollars to Bill Gates in the middle of the Sahara.
But is that a reason why an egg or a glass of water are really worth
that much?

A given boat might be worth more to somebody else in some other
situation. But its "real value" is what it is worth to you. The same
holds true for Dot Com Stocks. Were they really worth as much as what
some people paid for them? Ask those who lost their entire estates in
the Stock Market bubble, and just maybe, ask a few who bought boats
without being properly informed and prudent. I may not understand the
subtleties of the used boat market, but to me, a ten year old boat is
worth LESS than it cost ten years ago when new. Banks need to have
foresight to avoid defaulting loans. Thus they also need hindsight and
cannot allow irrational pricing to guide what they will underwrite.

If these boats are really worth close to what their advertised prices
are, I'm glad to hear that the used boat market isn't as rough as folks
have claimed. I didn't realize that 10 year old 30 foot cruisers sold
between $50k and $100k like hotcakes. The price guidebooks all put
average retail at around $30k, so I guess I should either throw away
the guidebooks or forget about buying a boat. 10,000 lbs of 10 year old
plastic at $10 per pound, maybe I should have invested in plastic
futures? Maybe it appreciates with age like old wines, getting ooohs
and aaahs at every gelcoat crack like antiques with wormholes.

Please don't find my irony disrespectful. When you say "Throw the price
guidebook away." you must be sensitive to the fact that we know you
used to be a broker. It risks smacking of selfserving logic, even if
that is the furthest thing from your intentions and you no longer are
active at that job.

Broker has POWER. They know the market like nobody else. They have
access to all the databases. They have informal networks. They've heard
all the stories from colleagues on how all these pigeons come along for
an expensive plucking. There's a sucker born every day, and most of
them eventually want to buy a boat. They may be honest and altruistic,
wishing a happy life to buyers and sellers alike. But then again they
may not. And with the power advantage they have over buyers, we're in
deep trouble unless prepared for the worst, even if hoping for the
best.

Regardless of the worth of Price Guidebooks - throw away or not -
someone here isn't doing their job right, either the pricing
authorities, or the brokers. Why do banks and insurance companies use
them? Because they are worthless and should be thrown away? Because
they only know loans and not boats? Or because they obey principles of
logic in price determination, and not the going rate for a sucker? A
twofold difference is a 100% error. Somebody is 100% wrong, unless each
is 50% blind.

How can the Owners of the boats be the ones who set the asking price?
This may be true legally, but in practice, who would have the gumption
to try to sell their boat for more than double book value? Obviously
they are ill advised by overly greedy brokers who, by polluting the
market by overpriced units, are maybe a big part of the used boat
market's sales difficulties. Who else tells them what price is the
right price? Nobody on commission will be happy to sell for a lower
profit a boat that they can hope to hussle some innocent buyer with
using the emotional appeal of a boat as bait. The sellers are thus
hostage to an unethical brokerage situation. Clearly, the system is
broken.

I don't mean to give you a hard time, especially as you are a valued
contributor to these groups and have been candid on many occasions
proving your good faith. But a newbie buyer is bound to see things from
a different standpoint than a seasoned seller. Maybe, just maybe,
there's some sense in the counterpoint too.

If having the market "controlled" by brokers isn't an ideal world, the
problem remaining is that in a market dominated by brokers, those
sellers who would be willing to sell at "normal" rational used boat
prices take the easy road and often choose sell through professionals.
Brokers then talk up their boat and flatter their egos and appeal to
human greed, some say it is just to get the listing, but maybe brokers
also dream of manipulating buyers into paying more? Those who are
willing to take the hard path of selling their boat themselves without
a broker are either very rarely doing so because they have become wise
and wary of brokers. It is likely that they are folks who are even more
greedy than brokers, and think the broker's overestimation of their
boat is low (after all it has been enobled by their ownership, hasn't
it?). They will believe that they can sucker you better than a pro, and
will want more $ plus the broker's fee to boot. Not exactly ideal
sellers to deal with.

To resume I'm not about to make an offer on a boat at close to its
ancient new price, especially when its best years are gone and NOW is
when the problems are pushing their owners to unload them. They have
roughly 400 hours on gas engines, and enough wear that the cosmetics
will soon show that their better days are over. When I buy something
new, I expect to sell it for something less down the road a decade
later of wear and tear.

Just possibly there is a MicroMarket for 30 foot pocket cruisers due to
recent gas price hikes - are folks downsizing their boats trying to cut
fuel costs? Most brokers seem to say that those bailing out of their
financial shipwrecks are selling to move up to a bigger boat. Even a
lame newbie like me should know better!

For those of us nonetheless willing to endure a "beating" in terms of
purchase costs, maintenance costs, marina costs, upgrade costs, repair
costs, and unexpected costs, as well as those I've forgotten, we must
enter the (m)arena like Gladiators - sizing up the odds of surviving
the encounter. And fom what I've seen so far, unless some of you folks
in the know give me some failproof pointers, I'm dead meat looking for
a barbecue grill.

Telling me that dealer list prices are correct, and that one can make
offers between 5 and 10% under - and calling such offers LOW - makes me
wonder if somebody has been eating strange brownies? Broker used boat
prices are obviously over inflated, well beyond what anyone might
believe is ordinary pricing with a small margin of built-in negotiating
elbow room. Either brokers have a tougher job than I thought with
sellers needing delirious cajoling over months of weening until they
realize they can't actually make a profit on owning their boat for
years, or they're out to empty my wallet with a vengeance. I'll let you
decide which is more likely.

My market search is nationwide, and thanks to your fine advice, I will
start making my offers in writing, clearly the only way to go. However,
I'm a bit worried about mailing brokers which I do not trust
intrinsically my personal check for 10% of the amount, before even
scheduling a survey and making sure the boat is sound. However, I guess
that there is no other way to get a broker to communicate a "low offer"
(read real market price for this buyer). Heck, if I was selling a boat
and not getting any nibbles for a year, I'd consider an honest offer
which matches Price Guidebook numbers. Why wouldn't other people?

I much appreciate your friendly advice about seller psychology, and
what not to do when making an offer. I will follow it strictly, and
keep the bickering to monetary issues, ie what I'll pay and what
they'll take, without trying to explain or argue. It will save everyone
strife, and keep the situation sane. Especially if, as you suggest, it
will only cause aggravation and give opposite results to those hoped
for.

So I thank you for your advice, which I will respect dutifully, even if
I don't quite see eye to eye with your philosophy concerning pricing of
used boats: definitely not the price that a lonely fool, or even an
army of suckers, would be willing to pay given the chance to lose their
shirt.

Cheers,

Rich (not that rich, you will notice from my posting)