On Sun, 4 Oct 2020 18:06:45 -0400, tommy collins
wrote:

On 10/4/20 5:32 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 4 Oct 2020 16:08:21 -0400, tommy collins
wrote:

Interesting.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-s...te-11601816400

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year in his
re-election race following Tuesday’s contentious debate with former Vice
President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%,
among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two
days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had
tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an
8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his
largest of the campaign at that time.

The survey finds something rare in Journal/NBC News polling: evidence
that an individual news event—the debate—is having a material effect on
Mr. Trump’s political standing, at least for now. Significant events in
the past, such as Mr. Trump’s impeachment by the House and acquittal by
the Senate, had only hardened views of the president, not shifted them.


One wonders what, if any, impact Trump's contracting COVID-19 will have
on these polls and the voters.

It all comes down to if he can recover enough to get back on the trail
by the last week of November. Unfortunately the mail in vote hurts
that. A lot of people have already voted.
If he recovers, he can say "See I told you this was the Flu".
If not, he is dead, politically or literally.
It does give him an easy out tho. He can blame his loss on Covid, not
his popularity.



You mean of course the last week of October. I don't believe the
national race numbers are as close as the poll indicates, but
mathematically, a six point lead nationally translates into an Electoral
College victory maybe.

What Trump claims if he loses will not matter.

Thanks, yes October.

I suppose the only thing that might make a difference is if it can be
a graceful exit. If he has something else to blame, it might work out
easier for everyone.

OTOH there is the constitutional question, what if he wins and dies
before Jan 6? Would the states change the electors or have them change
the way they vote? Constitutionally they could pick anyone they want,
regardless of the outcome of the election. State law and the
legislators control that process but it really comes down to what the
electors decide to do themselves. The Constitution also seems to be
silent on whether they can inaugurate a dead guy and then hand it over
to the VP.
Then there is also the chance that some electors would be legally
required to vote for Trump, some vote for Pence and Biden gets his 268
or something. Nancy would select Biden and McConnell would pick Pence
for VP, creating a situation that hasn't existed since the 12th
amendment (1804) and the cat fight between Adams and Jefferson that
brought that amendment to fruition..

I don't really have a dog in this fight, My vote for Dr Jorgensen went
in a few days ago but I have a big bowl of popcorn and I am watching.
I think we have a pretty good idea how this goes if it makes it to the
SCOTUS, particularly if there are 9 of them by then. .