Latest TIME/CNN state polls:


FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47
MINNESOTA: Obama 54, McCain 43
MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48
NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 47
VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44


UPDATE:

http://apnews.myway.com//article/200...D93HTL500.html.

AP now has Obama up by 7, 48-41% in a national poll.


By LIZ SIDOTI

WASHINGTON (AP) - Barack Obama has surged to a seven-point lead over
John McCain one month before the presidential election, lifted by voters
who think the Democrat is better suited to lead the nation through its
sudden financial crisis, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that
underscores the mounting concerns of some McCain backers.

Likely voters now back Obama 48-41 percent over McCain, a dramatic shift
from an AP-GfK survey that gave the Republican a slight edge nearly
three weeks ago, before Wall Street collapsed and sent ripples across
worldwide markets. On top of that, unrelated surveys show Obama beating
McCain in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania - three states critical in the
state-by-state battle for the presidency.

Several GOP strategists close to McCain's campaign privately fret that
his chances for victory are starting to slip away.

These Republicans, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid angering
the campaign, point to several factors: Obama's gains nationally and in
traditionally GOP states, no McCain gain from the first debate, McCain's
struggles with economic issues as the financial crisis has unfolded and
deepening public skepticism about his running mate, Sarah Palin.

They said McCain's options for shaking up the race are essentially
limited to game-changing performances in the final presidential debates
or in Palin's vice presidential debate with Joe Biden Thursday night.
Short of that, they said, McCain can do little but hope Obama stumbles
or an outside event breaks the GOP nominee's way.

Not all Republican insiders are so pessimistic.

Obama's failure to achieve a double-digit lead and maintain it "has
given a lot of hope to Republicans," GOP pollster Whit Ayres said. Yet
he also allowed, "You can't have a playing field that leans this heavily
toward the Democrats and not be nervous."

Added Neil Newhouse, also a Republican pollster: "If anybody thinks
we're in for a straightforward next month of this campaign all they have
to do is look back at the last 30 days" of topsy turvy developments.

To be sure, the election is still a month away, plenty of time for
anything to happen in politics.

Yet the AP-GfK poll shows McCain faces substantial hurdles.

With the perilous financial situation at the forefront of voters' minds,
60 percent in the survey say it's more important to them to choose a
president who would make the right economic decisions than a commander
in chief who would make the right decisions on national security. Obama
leads among economic voters, with 63 percent support, while McCain is
ahead among security voters, with 73 percent.

As the two senators prepared to vote late Wednesday on the
administration's $700 billion bailout plan, 16 percent of likely voters
said they thought McCain hurt negotiations over the proposal when he
bolted back to Washington last week to get involved. Just 5 percent
thought Obama did damage when he returned after a summons by President
Bush to attend a White House meeting on the crisis.

McCain also lost ground among likely voters on experience, though he
still leads on the issue, while Obama's marks ticked up slightly. And
McCain slid a bit as voters measured which candidate "cares about people
like me," while Obama gained.

Adding to McCain's woes, just 25 percent of likely voters say Palin has
the right experience to be president if needed, a huge drop from 40
percent in the previous poll last month. She posted an enormous loss in
confidence among Republicans; three in four had called her experienced
enough before, but not even half say that now.

"If she was running the helm, she wouldn't know what she's doing," said
Caitlyn Pardue, a Republican from Rohnert Park, Calif., who decided last
week that she probably would vote for Obama after determining that Palin
"doesn't have the breadth of knowledge." Pardue, 60, called McCain's
selection of Palin "pretty ill-advised" and added: "It shows
irresponsibility to me."

In Port Orange, Fla., Jaimye Strickland just decided this week that
she'll probably support McCain - even though she's "hoping and praying"
he doesn't end up following Bush's path. "I'm afraid of Obama," the
Republican, age 56, said. "He doesn't have the experience that McCain
does." She also said she worries that "he has some Muslim ties," even
though she knows he's a Christian.

Outwardly, McCain's campaign expresses optimism, and advisers say they
expect the race to reset itself several more times.

But privately some advisers acknowledge the increasingly difficult seas
he is trying to navigate as the economy dominates the race. The
Republican has previously agreed that the subject is not his forte, and
historically the party in power loses elections during economic recessions.

Seeking traction, McCain sought to change the story line as the week
began by questioning Obama's character, particularly during a crisis.

"A vote for Senator Obama will leave this country at risk," McCain said
in a scathing speech. "We need a president who will always tell the
American people the truth. ... Country first or Obama first?"

Efforts also were under way Wednesday that suggested McCain and the
Republican National Committee would start ramping up TV advertising -
and going on the air in more media markets - to close the spending gap
in Florida, Missouri and other key states. Industry officials say Obama
is shelling out $13 million this week compared with $11 million by
McCain and the RNC combined.

Meanwhile, it appears Obama may be padding his edge in the Electoral
College vote count in battleground states.

Polls show he has started pulling away from McCain in pivotal vote-rich
states that Democrat John Kerry won four years ago and that McCain has
made targets this year, including Michigan and Pennsylvania. Surveys
also show that Obama is a few percentage points or more ahead in Ohio
and Florida, two critical states that Bush won four years ago and that
McCain must retain to have any hope of winning the White House.

Quinnipiac University surveys released Wednesday found that Obama's
support jumped to 50 percent or more in three of those states: Ohio,
Florida and Pennsylvania. Combined, they offer 68 of the 270 electoral
votes needed for victory on Nov. 4.

At the same time, McCain and his Republicans find themselves in the
undesirable position of having to defend traditionally GOP states they
hadn't anticipated would be competitive. Obama successfully put Indiana,
Virginia and North Carolina into play by pouring money and manpower into
the states at levels until recently unmatched by Republicans.

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Perhaps Halliburton can arrange for some Islamists on their payroll to
attack the U.S. mainland...