Uh oh...must be time for Faux News and the Swiftboaters to launch their
schitts, er, ships...


And once again, I am not a follower of these national polls, but several
of them are indicating a fairly sharp jump these past few days. *That*
is interesting. I think a lot of momentum will be gained by whoever is
perceived to be "better" in the debate Friday.

I wonder how many times McCain will bring up "the surge" as an example
of his foreign policy chops? I wonder if he realizes that "the surge"
isn't working for him.





FOX News Poll: Obama Reclaims Lead Over McCain, 45% to 39%

Wednesday, September 24, 2008


Barack Obama has recaptured the lead — 45 percent to 39 percent — over
John McCain in the presidential race, according to a FOX News poll
released Wednesday.

As majorities of each party's faithful back their party nominee, the
battle stays focused on that most sought-after group of voters:
independents.

These voters, evenly divided between the candidates in August, swung to
McCain earlier this month, which gave him his first lead over Obama
since April. In this latest poll independents give a slight edge to
Obama, though many have moved back into the undecided column.

In addition, the poll shows Obama has improved his position on the most
important issue to voters this year — the economy. He is seen as the
best candidate to handle the nation's economy, and more voters also say
he would be better at handling the current financial crisis facing the
country.

Opinion Dynamics Corp. conducted the national telephone poll of 900
registered voters for FOX News from September 22 to September 23. The
poll has a 3-point error margin.

McCain held a 3-point advantage earlier this month immediately after the
Republican convention (September 8-9). Before that Obama had a 3-point
lead going into the Democratic convention (August 19-20). Looking back
as far as a year ago, in head-to-head polling neither candidate has had
a lead outside the poll's margin of sampling error. Obama's lead today
is just at the outside edge of the margin of error.

The new poll finds Obama now has the edge among men (+5 percentage
points) — a group that had previously either been evenly divided or
slightly in McCain's column. Obama maintains his advantage among women
voters (+8), while white women are a bit more likely to support McCain (+2).

Obama Has the Edge on Top Issues

The economy is far and away the most important issue to voters in this
election. More than four times as many people say the economy (46
percent) is the top concern as choose the issue — terrorism and national
security (10 percent). All other issues receive single digit support.

Obama is trusted more to handle the economy by 10 percentage points, the
related issue of taxes by 7 points, and he also leads on handling energy
independence by 10 points. His largest advantage — 21 points — is on
handling the issue of health care.

By double-digit margins McCain is trusted more to handle the issues of
terrorism (+ 12 points) and the Iraq war (+ 8 points).

Nearly twice as many voters think their taxes will go up under a
President Obama (15 percent) than a President McCain (8 percent). A 65
percent majority thinks their taxes will go up no matter which candidate
takes the White House.

Which candidate do voters trust to keep his word? Some 41 percent think
Obama and 38 percent McCain. Another 10 percent say "neither."

By a 5-point margin more voters think the Democratic ticket has "better
judgment combined" — a reversal from two weeks ago when the Republican
ticket had a 4-point edge.

The Democratic ticket has a 12-point edge when it comes to bringing the
"right change to Washington," up from a 7-point lead two weeks ago. The
Obama-Biden ticket also has the edge on understanding "the problems you
and your family face these days" (+13 points).

The Republican ticket is seen as having "more experience combined" (+ 15
points).

Voters are now almost evenly divided when asked who they would go to for
advice if they had to make the "toughest decision of their life" — 40
percent say Obama and 39 percent McCain. Earlier this month McCain had a
16-point advantage on this measure (50 percent to Obama's 34 percent).
McCain had a 6-point edge in the August 19-20 poll (43 percent McCain
and 37 percent Obama).

Among independents, 34 percent would go to Obama for advice and 31
percent McCain. This too is a change — earlier this month independents
broke 22 percent Obama and 52 percent McCain. In August, 26 percent of
independents said they would go to Obama for advice and 41 percent said
McCain.

With the struggling national economy, the prolonged Iraq war and high
disapproval ratings for President Bush, the conventional wisdom has been
it is impossible for a Democratic candidate to lose this election. How
would voters explain an Obama loss? About one of four voters (26
percent) say if Obama loses they think racism will be to blame. A-57
percent majority thinks it would be for another reason.

Over half of black voters (55 percent) and about one of five white
voters (22 percent) think racism across the country would be to blame if
Obama is defeated in November.

On a similar question about McCain's age, 17 percent think if he loses
it will be mainly because of his age and 68 percent say because of
something else. Twenty-five percent of seniors age 65 and over think
McCain's age would be to blame if he loses.

Voters More Comfortable with Biden Stepping in as President

More voters would be comfortable with Joe Biden as vice president as
would be comfortable with Sarah Palin in that role. Some 40 percent
would be "extremely" comfortable or "very" comfortable with Biden as
vice president, while 34 percent would be with Palin.

Similarly, when the question asks what if it were necessary for the vice
president to step in and serve as president: 44 percent would be
"extremely" or "very" comfortable with Biden as president, and 32
percent with Palin.

The big difference comes at the other end of the scale: 38 percent of
voters say they would be "not at all" comfortable with Palin stepping in
to serve as president — more than twice as many as say the same about
Biden (17 percent).

Palin's favorable rating has dropped a bit and now stands at 47 percent,
down from 54 percent two weeks ago. Nearly half of voters — 48 percent —
have a favorable view of Biden, down from 51 percent (September 8-9).


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