"Vic Smith" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 18:18:11 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
. ..
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 18:09:39 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
m...
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 17:49:24 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:



Mind if I ask what business you're in? I'm asking because I think I
can
demonstrate how YOUR business could be meddled with by people who are
totally unrelated to your business.

I'm in the retirement business, participating.
And "people" are still in my face!
I just ignore them, though.
Well, not really. The price of Cheerios ****es me off.
Ethanol taking oat acreage out of production.
Probably other factors to complain about too.
I could go on and on.
But go ahead and grind your axe.
I'll comment on the sparks if I can.

--Vic

What was your business before retirement?


IT - analyst.


OK. I'm going to take the right financial industry people and regulators
to
lunch a few dozen times, bribe as necessary, and create a new futures
market
involving computer hardware. Just like the oil commodities markets, we
will
allow people to fiddle in it even if they have absolutely no connection to
the computer industry. They will just be there to gamble. Within 6 months,
computers of all kinds will become so prohibitively expensive that
corporations will not be able to own more than just one or two, for use by
the head honchos. Most of your IT department will be out of work.

Price fluctuations for computers will be based on such things as:

"fear of renewed violence in Baghdad"

"unseasonal amounts of rain in Korea"

....or just about any other drunken reason which frightens the amateur
traders in the commodity you depend on.

That's what's happening with oil. You don't believe it yet. But, it's
absolutely true. It doesn't ***ALL*** the price swings, but it explains
some
of it.

Why do all that when you can just offshore it? Or bring in H1-B
analysts from India?
Remember that actual producers and consumers of commodities use the
futures markets to lock in prices in managing their businesses, and
that futures aren't the spot market.
The reason oil costs what it does isn't because of futures, but
because of what the market will bear. Supply and demand.


Wrong. You will find out otherwise in the near future.

On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 20:16:34 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:


"Vic Smith" wrote in message

The reason oil costs what it does isn't because of futures, but
because of what the market will bear. Supply and demand.


Wrong. You will find out otherwise in the near future.

Is that a threat?

--Vic

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 20:16:34 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:


"Vic Smith" wrote in message

The reason oil costs what it does isn't because of futures, but
because of what the market will bear. Supply and demand.


Wrong. You will find out otherwise in the near future.

Is that a threat?

--Vic


It's a promise. Neither of us knows what percentage of oil price increases
are due to simple gambling, but it's significant enough that it's getting
more attention.

Oil is a product whose price affects virtually everything we buy. There is
no excuse for allowing recreational gamblers affect the price. Let the oil
companies hedge, but not players at any level.

On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 20:47:59 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
.. .
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 20:16:34 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:


"Vic Smith" wrote in message

The reason oil costs what it does isn't because of futures, but
because of what the market will bear. Supply and demand.


Wrong. You will find out otherwise in the near future.

Is that a threat?

--Vic


It's a promise. Neither of us knows what percentage of oil price increases
are due to simple gambling, but it's significant enough that it's getting
more attention.

Oil is a product whose price affects virtually everything we buy. There is
no excuse for allowing recreational gamblers affect the price. Let the oil
companies hedge, but not players at any level.

Here's how it works.
When you refuse to buy gasoline, refuse to fly, or cut back on use,
the price *may* come down. Including the futures prices.
Here's another option for you. Plant some oil acreage or find some
inexhaustible oil fields.
Until then, live with it. Jesus H. Christ, you act like the world
owes you low oil prices.
And I thought I was over the top complaining about Cheerios.

--Vic

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 20:47:59 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
. ..
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 20:16:34 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:


"Vic Smith" wrote in message

The reason oil costs what it does isn't because of futures, but
because of what the market will bear. Supply and demand.


Wrong. You will find out otherwise in the near future.

Is that a threat?

--Vic


It's a promise. Neither of us knows what percentage of oil price increases
are due to simple gambling, but it's significant enough that it's getting
more attention.

Oil is a product whose price affects virtually everything we buy. There is
no excuse for allowing recreational gamblers affect the price. Let the oil
companies hedge, but not players at any level.

Here's how it works.
When you refuse to buy gasoline, refuse to fly, or cut back on use,
the price *may* come down. Including the futures prices.
Here's another option for you. Plant some oil acreage or find some
inexhaustible oil fields.
Until then, live with it. Jesus H. Christ, you act like the world
owes you low oil prices.
And I thought I was over the top complaining about Cheerios.

--Vic


Vic, you're reciting the fairy tale version. Please stop. It's not befitting
of a grown man.

Let's take it a step at a time. Do you agree that some players in oil
commodities are completely unrelated to the oil business itself? Not acting
on behalf of an oil company that's hedging its raw materials, in other
words.

On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 21:25:32 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:



Let's take it a step at a time. Do you agree that some players in oil
commodities are completely unrelated to the oil business itself? Not acting
on behalf of an oil company that's hedging its raw materials, in other
words.

Of course. Joe, we won't agree on this, so let's not play 20
questions. I believe the price of oil is almost entirely related to
how much the buyer can be squeezed.
You think futures speculators have a large impact on the price.
We won't agree. Can you agree to that?
Let's just carry on with our boating discussion now.
When do you expect to go fishing?

--Vic

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 21:25:32 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:



Let's take it a step at a time. Do you agree that some players in oil
commodities are completely unrelated to the oil business itself? Not
acting
on behalf of an oil company that's hedging its raw materials, in other
words.

Of course. Joe, we won't agree on this, so let's not play 20
questions. I believe the price of oil is almost entirely related to
how much the buyer can be squeezed.
You think futures speculators have a large impact on the price.
We won't agree. Can you agree to that?
Let's just carry on with our boating discussion now.
When do you expect to go fishing?

--Vic


As soon as the ice is gone, the boat goes in. Two weeks? Who knows.
Meanwhile, a couple of trout streams are ice-free.

"JoeSpareBedroom" wrote in message
news
"Vic Smith" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 20:47:59 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 20:16:34 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:


"Vic Smith" wrote in message

The reason oil costs what it does isn't because of futures, but
because of what the market will bear. Supply and demand.


Wrong. You will find out otherwise in the near future.

Is that a threat?

--Vic


It's a promise. Neither of us knows what percentage of oil price
increases
are due to simple gambling, but it's significant enough that it's getting
more attention.

Oil is a product whose price affects virtually everything we buy. There
is
no excuse for allowing recreational gamblers affect the price. Let the
oil
companies hedge, but not players at any level.

Here's how it works.
When you refuse to buy gasoline, refuse to fly, or cut back on use,
the price *may* come down. Including the futures prices.
Here's another option for you. Plant some oil acreage or find some
inexhaustible oil fields.
Until then, live with it. Jesus H. Christ, you act like the world
owes you low oil prices.
And I thought I was over the top complaining about Cheerios.

--Vic


Vic, you're reciting the fairy tale version. Please stop. It's not
befitting of a grown man.

Let's take it a step at a time. Do you agree that some players in oil
commodities are completely unrelated to the oil business itself? Not
acting on behalf of an oil company that's hedging its raw materials, in
other words.


Airlines hedge oil prices. Not just gas companies. Is a major reason the
Southwest Airlines was very profitable the last few years. Those hedged
contracts have now expired. Lots of uses also hedge the futures market.
Was a major reason the market was started. Farmer sold part of his crop
ahead of time for a set price. Gave him the money to plant his complete
crop and raise it to maturity. If big crop he made big money, small crop,
he still did not go bankrupt. Been futures trading for ever by those
gambling. George Soros made his billions on trading currency futures.
Enough futures that he most likely manipulated the market for huge gains.
Oil refiners are not a big profit percentage game. CVX only pays about 2.7%
dividend. XOM is about 1/2 that. Citigroup a couple of years ago had a
gross profit margin of about 35%. Maybe there should be a windfall profits
tax on all those multi megabuck bonuses the executives got while showing
huge profits from bad investing?