On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 17:49:24 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:



Mind if I ask what business you're in? I'm asking because I think I can
demonstrate how YOUR business could be meddled with by people who are
totally unrelated to your business.

I'm in the retirement business, participating.
And "people" are still in my face!
I just ignore them, though.
Well, not really. The price of Cheerios ****es me off.
Ethanol taking oat acreage out of production.
Probably other factors to complain about too.
I could go on and on.
But go ahead and grind your axe.
I'll comment on the sparks if I can.

--Vic

On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 18:09:39 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
.. .
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 17:49:24 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:



Mind if I ask what business you're in? I'm asking because I think I can
demonstrate how YOUR business could be meddled with by people who are
totally unrelated to your business.

I'm in the retirement business, participating.
And "people" are still in my face!
I just ignore them, though.
Well, not really. The price of Cheerios ****es me off.
Ethanol taking oat acreage out of production.
Probably other factors to complain about too.
I could go on and on.
But go ahead and grind your axe.
I'll comment on the sparks if I can.

--Vic

What was your business before retirement?

IT - analyst.

On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 10:42:47 -0600, Vic Smith
wrote:

Whose business it anyway if lenders choose to write bad loans?
Doesn't hurt me.

That's naive. If the government ends up bailing out the lender "to
save the economy" who do you think ends up paying for that? Sooner or
later we all do, either in taxes or with a depreciated dollar.

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 18:18:11 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
. ..
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 18:09:39 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
m...
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 17:49:24 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:



Mind if I ask what business you're in? I'm asking because I think I
can
demonstrate how YOUR business could be meddled with by people who are
totally unrelated to your business.

I'm in the retirement business, participating.
And "people" are still in my face!
I just ignore them, though.
Well, not really. The price of Cheerios ****es me off.
Ethanol taking oat acreage out of production.
Probably other factors to complain about too.
I could go on and on.
But go ahead and grind your axe.
I'll comment on the sparks if I can.

--Vic

What was your business before retirement?


IT - analyst.


OK. I'm going to take the right financial industry people and regulators
to
lunch a few dozen times, bribe as necessary, and create a new futures
market
involving computer hardware. Just like the oil commodities markets, we
will
allow people to fiddle in it even if they have absolutely no connection to
the computer industry. They will just be there to gamble. Within 6 months,
computers of all kinds will become so prohibitively expensive that
corporations will not be able to own more than just one or two, for use by
the head honchos. Most of your IT department will be out of work.

Price fluctuations for computers will be based on such things as:

"fear of renewed violence in Baghdad"

"unseasonal amounts of rain in Korea"

....or just about any other drunken reason which frightens the amateur
traders in the commodity you depend on.

That's what's happening with oil. You don't believe it yet. But, it's
absolutely true. It doesn't ***ALL*** the price swings, but it explains
some
of it.

Why do all that when you can just offshore it? Or bring in H1-B
analysts from India?
Remember that actual producers and consumers of commodities use the
futures markets to lock in prices in managing their businesses, and
that futures aren't the spot market.
The reason oil costs what it does isn't because of futures, but
because of what the market will bear. Supply and demand.


Wrong. You will find out otherwise in the near future.

On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 18:18:11 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
.. .
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 18:09:39 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 17:49:24 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:



Mind if I ask what business you're in? I'm asking because I think I can
demonstrate how YOUR business could be meddled with by people who are
totally unrelated to your business.

I'm in the retirement business, participating.
And "people" are still in my face!
I just ignore them, though.
Well, not really. The price of Cheerios ****es me off.
Ethanol taking oat acreage out of production.
Probably other factors to complain about too.
I could go on and on.
But go ahead and grind your axe.
I'll comment on the sparks if I can.

--Vic

What was your business before retirement?


IT - analyst.


OK. I'm going to take the right financial industry people and regulators to
lunch a few dozen times, bribe as necessary, and create a new futures market
involving computer hardware. Just like the oil commodities markets, we will
allow people to fiddle in it even if they have absolutely no connection to
the computer industry. They will just be there to gamble. Within 6 months,
computers of all kinds will become so prohibitively expensive that
corporations will not be able to own more than just one or two, for use by
the head honchos. Most of your IT department will be out of work.

Price fluctuations for computers will be based on such things as:

"fear of renewed violence in Baghdad"

"unseasonal amounts of rain in Korea"

....or just about any other drunken reason which frightens the amateur
traders in the commodity you depend on.

That's what's happening with oil. You don't believe it yet. But, it's
absolutely true. It doesn't ***ALL*** the price swings, but it explains some
of it.

Why do all that when you can just offshore it? Or bring in H1-B
analysts from India?
Remember that actual producers and consumers of commodities use the
futures markets to lock in prices in managing their businesses, and
that futures aren't the spot market.
The reason oil costs what it does isn't because of futures, but
because of what the market will bear. Supply and demand.
I traded oil a few times when it was around 17.00 a barrel, as purely
technical trades (chart formations) but look at it differently than
most commodities, where supply can be increased as price goes up.
If I was willing to take the risk with my retirement money, I would be
long in it right now. BTW, commodities trading replaced playing the
horses for me, and since I don't produce or use the commodity, it's
just gambling, and that's how I look at it.
I don't take the view that stock market gamblers do that I'm a patriot
because I "invest" in a mutual fund whose components I know nothing
about, such as whether or not they promote pornography, offshore jobs
that weaken America and so on.
If I buy or sell a futures contract I''m simply gambling, be it a
smart gamble or not. If I lose I don't cry about it, ask for a guv
bailout, or claim it's bad for America.
Used to be the average investor invested in stocks for dividends and
some growth, with an eye to supporting a company that reflected the
investor's values.
That's no longer true. It's only about the money.
For futures speculators it's always been about the money, but most
had the honesty to say it. Early on I would say I'm providing
liquidity to the price-finding market, oiling the gears of commerce.
The patriotic American, supporting the machinery of Capitalism.
After a few margin calls, I decided it was about the money - and the
thrill of gambling. But I can say none of my commodity trades
supported pornography or weakened America by offshoring to make a
buck.
Don't get me wrong. I'm a very small time trader, trade off and on,
and though I'm ahead about 25 grand in a bit over 20 years of trading,
my retirement money isn't large. Most of it got there the old
fashioned way - I worked, avoided debt and saved.
Hell, just driving old Chevys probably added 100k to my retirement.

--Vic

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 20:16:34 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:


"Vic Smith" wrote in message

The reason oil costs what it does isn't because of futures, but
because of what the market will bear. Supply and demand.


Wrong. You will find out otherwise in the near future.

Is that a threat?

--Vic


It's a promise. Neither of us knows what percentage of oil price increases
are due to simple gambling, but it's significant enough that it's getting
more attention.

Oil is a product whose price affects virtually everything we buy. There is
no excuse for allowing recreational gamblers affect the price. Let the oil
companies hedge, but not players at any level.

On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 15:33:54 -0600, Vic Smith
wrote:

Whose business it anyway if lenders choose to write bad loans?
Doesn't hurt me.

That's naive. If the government ends up bailing out the lender "to
save the economy" who do you think ends up paying for that? Sooner or
later we all do, either in taxes or with a depreciated dollar.

Sounds like you want it regulated.

Actually not. My real preference would be to let the lenders fail,
except for the one that is paying my pension and holding my retirement
$$$s.

Life is complicated. :-)

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 20:47:59 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:

"Vic Smith" wrote in message
. ..
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 20:16:34 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:


"Vic Smith" wrote in message

The reason oil costs what it does isn't because of futures, but
because of what the market will bear. Supply and demand.


Wrong. You will find out otherwise in the near future.

Is that a threat?

--Vic


It's a promise. Neither of us knows what percentage of oil price increases
are due to simple gambling, but it's significant enough that it's getting
more attention.

Oil is a product whose price affects virtually everything we buy. There is
no excuse for allowing recreational gamblers affect the price. Let the oil
companies hedge, but not players at any level.

Here's how it works.
When you refuse to buy gasoline, refuse to fly, or cut back on use,
the price *may* come down. Including the futures prices.
Here's another option for you. Plant some oil acreage or find some
inexhaustible oil fields.
Until then, live with it. Jesus H. Christ, you act like the world
owes you low oil prices.
And I thought I was over the top complaining about Cheerios.

--Vic


Vic, you're reciting the fairy tale version. Please stop. It's not befitting
of a grown man.

Let's take it a step at a time. Do you agree that some players in oil
commodities are completely unrelated to the oil business itself? Not acting
on behalf of an oil company that's hedging its raw materials, in other
words.

On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 15:47:43 -0400, Wayne.B
wrote:

On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 10:42:47 -0600, Vic Smith
wrote:

Whose business it anyway if lenders choose to write bad loans?
Doesn't hurt me.

That's naive. If the government ends up bailing out the lender "to
save the economy" who do you think ends up paying for that? Sooner or
later we all do, either in taxes or with a depreciated dollar.

Sounds like you want it regulated.

--Vic

On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 15:47:43 -0400, Wayne.B
wrote:

On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 10:42:47 -0600, Vic Smith
wrote:

Whose business it anyway if lenders choose to write bad loans?
Doesn't hurt me.

That's naive. If the government ends up bailing out the lender "to
save the economy" who do you think ends up paying for that? Sooner or
later we all do, either in taxes or with a depreciated dollar.

You know what I think the solution is?

You freeze all those entry level mortgages before they reset. In
return, the GSE's buy the paper from the banks and sits on it.

In return for having a mortgage freeze, borrowers agree to the
following: Not sell the house for a minimum of 10 years. No equity
loans. When the term is finished, 30% of any profit on a sale rolls
over to the GSEs right off the top. That establishes a floor.

Secondarily, the GSEs, can redistribute the risk by picking the
performing loans to keep and wholesaling the non-performing loans into
Junk Bonds.

Win-win.