34 Week inventory, sales down, stock soaring (????)
 

Sales are off over at Brunswick.

There's a 34-week inventory of boats in the pipeline.

However, because the fall off in sales was less than analysts
expected, Brunswick stock is up sharply.

Only thing weirder than the boat business has to be the stock market.

**************

Brunswick 1Q Profits, Sales Drop
AP
LAKE FOREST, Ill. (AP) - Brunswick Corp., the world's largest maker of
recreational boats and marine engines, reported a 32 percent drop in
first-quarter earnings Thursday but the decline was less than expected
and its stock soared.

The results came on lower sales in a soft U.S. market for boat sales.
Beating expectations, however, propelled Brunswick's shares up $3.03,
or 9.9 percent, to close at $33.74 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Net earnings for the first three months of the year were $45.6
million, or 50 cents per share, down from $67.4 million, or 70 cents
per share, a year earlier.

Earnings from continuing operations amounted to $34.3 million, or 38
cents per share, down more than half from a year ago but well above
the consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial of 29
cents per share.

Revenue was $1.39 billion, down 1 percent from $1.41 billion in the
first quarter of 2006, but better than the $1.34 billion expected by
analysts.

"Operating earnings were affected by lower sales, reduced fixed-cost
absorption from production cuts, costs associated with previously
announced restructuring efforts, as well as by increased discounts
offered to spur retail demand," said Chairman and Chief Executive
Dustan McCoy.

Boat pipeline inventories stood at 34 weeks of supply at the end of
the quarter compared with 32 weeks of supply a year ago, he said.

Boat segment sales declined 7 percent to $699 million in the quarter.
Excluding incremental sales from acquired businesses, segment sales
slipped 9 percent. Marine engine segment revenue rose 3 percent to
$572.6 million. Fitness segment revenue increased 8 percent to $145
million.

Brunswick said it is maintaining its full-year earnings guidance due
to its pipeline inventories, production schedules and the early
position in the marine selling season.

On the Net:

www.brunswick.com

34 Week inventory, sales down, stock soaring (????)
 

On Apr 26, 6:19?pm, John H. wrote:
On 26 Apr 2007 15:52:10 -0700, Chuck Gould
wrote:

Sales are off over at Brunswick.

There's a 34-week inventory of boats in the pipeline.

However, because the fall off in sales was less than analysts
expected, Brunswick stock is up sharply.

Only thing weirder than the boat business has to be the stock market.

**************

The stock is still only a little over half what it was a couple years ago.

I fear we may see a few mfgr go OOB this year. Unleaded premium gas
ashore is $3.40- $3.60 right now, so it has to be $5 or really close
at the fuel dock. Folks who have to know exactly where every dollar
goes, every month, are probably the most vulnerable when this rape and
pillage pricing kicks in. It's going to be the smaller, less expensive
boats that suffer the worst. After the last two years of sky high
prices and this year headed higher, it's getting difficult for anybody
to believe that it's a temporary market phenomenon and that things
will probably get back to "normal" next summer. At $150- $300 an hour
in fuel costs for some of the speedier boats, even a few of the guys
with deep pockets are going to be thinking twice about using their
boats as much.

Too bad, because in general the economy is snorting along pretty
nicely. Full employment, strong stock market, real estate values
stabilizing and beginning to bounce back......you'd have to think that
this would be a dynamite time to sell boats. Business is extremely
good for some at the upper end, but it's never a good sign when sales
are off at Brunswick, Genmar, or one of the other
mass-pro suppliers. Means that folks of ordinary or upper middle class
means aren't buying boats, and that volume is pretty crucial to
pricing of a lot of goods and services that even those of us who
aren't going to be trading boats any time soon consume on a regular
basis.

34 Week inventory, sales down, stock soaring (????)
 

On 26 Apr 2007 15:52:10 -0700, Chuck Gould
wrote:

Sales are off over at Brunswick.

There's a 34-week inventory of boats in the pipeline.

However, because the fall off in sales was less than analysts
expected, Brunswick stock is up sharply.

Only thing weirder than the boat business has to be the stock market.

**************

The stock is still only a little over half what it was a couple years ago.

34 Week inventory, sales down, stock soaring (????)
 

On 26 Apr 2007 18:08:12 -0700, Chuck Gould
wrote:

Means that folks of ordinary or upper middle class
means aren't buying boats, and that volume is pretty crucial to
pricing of a lot of goods and services that even those of us who
aren't going to be trading boats any time soon consume on a regular
basis.

I've been saying that for over a year now just based on observation
and intuition.

I'm not exactly destitute, but it cost me $204 today to fill the truck
with diesel (30 gallons - $83) and fill the boat (42 gallons - $121)
after burning off the old fuel this afternoon.

Do that every weekend, plus all the other expenses of going to work
(which I don't do), increasing food and home energy costs, something
has to give and that's going to be the boat.

While the economy is stable, this notion of the FED that only core CPI
is a valid indicator of inflation and living costs is ridiculous. The
real rate of inflation is around 13% from the first of the year and
the FED is pretending it's only around 2.3% because they discount
energy and food. Last year, real inflation was something like 9%.

Add increasing income taxes, increasing fees (my registrations went up
this year by $5 across the board), insurance, etc., boating is the
first to go.

34 Week inventory, sales down, stock soaring (????)
 

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On 26 Apr 2007 18:08:12 -0700, Chuck Gould
wrote:

Means that folks of ordinary or upper middle class
means aren't buying boats, and that volume is pretty crucial to
pricing of a lot of goods and services that even those of us who
aren't going to be trading boats any time soon consume on a regular
basis.

I've been saying that for over a year now just based on observation
and intuition.

I'm not exactly destitute, but it cost me $204 today to fill the truck
with diesel (30 gallons - $83) and fill the boat (42 gallons - $121)
after burning off the old fuel this afternoon.

Do that every weekend, plus all the other expenses of going to work
(which I don't do), increasing food and home energy costs, something
has to give and that's going to be the boat.

While the economy is stable, this notion of the FED that only core CPI
is a valid indicator of inflation and living costs is ridiculous. The
real rate of inflation is around 13% from the first of the year and
the FED is pretending it's only around 2.3% because they discount
energy and food. Last year, real inflation was something like 9%.

Add increasing income taxes, increasing fees (my registrations went up
this year by $5 across the board), insurance, etc., boating is the
first to go.

WOW. Only 42 gallons in the boat! Count your blessings--I put in 110
gallons today--ouch! Did get away with only 18 gallons of Diesel in the
truck though. ;).

34 Week inventory, sales down, stock soaring (????)
 

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On 26 Apr 2007 18:08:12 -0700, Chuck Gould
wrote:

Means that folks of ordinary or upper middle class
means aren't buying boats, and that volume is pretty crucial to
pricing of a lot of goods and services that even those of us who
aren't going to be trading boats any time soon consume on a regular
basis.

I've been saying that for over a year now just based on observation
and intuition.

I'm not exactly destitute, but it cost me $204 today to fill the truck
with diesel (30 gallons - $83) and fill the boat (42 gallons - $121)
after burning off the old fuel this afternoon.

Do that every weekend, plus all the other expenses of going to work
(which I don't do), increasing food and home energy costs, something
has to give and that's going to be the boat.

While the economy is stable, this notion of the FED that only core CPI
is a valid indicator of inflation and living costs is ridiculous. The
real rate of inflation is around 13% from the first of the year and
the FED is pretending it's only around 2.3% because they discount
energy and food. Last year, real inflation was something like 9%.

Add increasing income taxes, increasing fees (my registrations went up
this year by $5 across the board), insurance, etc., boating is the
first to go.

Maybe it will go back to the days of 40 years ago. We skied behind 40 hp
Outboards in 16-18' boats. Why do we all the sudden need $70,000 boat to
ski behind. A Tourney ski boat dealer just changed hands here in town.
They were advertising discounts of $20,000 on some boats. Talk about being
overpriced to start with.

34 Week inventory, sales down, stock soaring (????)
 

On Fri, 27 Apr 2007 06:55:54 GMT, "Calif Bill"
wrote:


"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
.. .
On 26 Apr 2007 18:08:12 -0700, Chuck Gould
wrote:

Means that folks of ordinary or upper middle class
means aren't buying boats, and that volume is pretty crucial to
pricing of a lot of goods and services that even those of us who
aren't going to be trading boats any time soon consume on a regular
basis.

I've been saying that for over a year now just based on observation
and intuition.

I'm not exactly destitute, but it cost me $204 today to fill the truck
with diesel (30 gallons - $83) and fill the boat (42 gallons - $121)
after burning off the old fuel this afternoon.

Do that every weekend, plus all the other expenses of going to work
(which I don't do), increasing food and home energy costs, something
has to give and that's going to be the boat.

While the economy is stable, this notion of the FED that only core CPI
is a valid indicator of inflation and living costs is ridiculous. The
real rate of inflation is around 13% from the first of the year and
the FED is pretending it's only around 2.3% because they discount
energy and food. Last year, real inflation was something like 9%.

Add increasing income taxes, increasing fees (my registrations went up
this year by $5 across the board), insurance, etc., boating is the
first to go.

Maybe it will go back to the days of 40 years ago. We skied behind 40 hp
Outboards in 16-18' boats. Why do we all the sudden need $70,000 boat to
ski behind. A Tourney ski boat dealer just changed hands here in town.
They were advertising discounts of $20,000 on some boats. Talk about being
overpriced to start with.

Heh - hell, we used to use my 13 foot Boston Whaler Sport with a 25
Merc and water ski in the harbor all the time.

Of course I was sixty pounds lighter then, but still... :)

34 Week inventory, sales down, stock soaring (????)
 

On Thu, 26 Apr 2007 20:07:38 -0700, "Danlw"
wrote:


"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
.. .
On 26 Apr 2007 18:08:12 -0700, Chuck Gould
wrote:

Means that folks of ordinary or upper middle class
means aren't buying boats, and that volume is pretty crucial to
pricing of a lot of goods and services that even those of us who
aren't going to be trading boats any time soon consume on a regular
basis.

I've been saying that for over a year now just based on observation
and intuition.

I'm not exactly destitute, but it cost me $204 today to fill the truck
with diesel (30 gallons - $83) and fill the boat (42 gallons - $121)
after burning off the old fuel this afternoon.

Do that every weekend, plus all the other expenses of going to work
(which I don't do), increasing food and home energy costs, something
has to give and that's going to be the boat.

While the economy is stable, this notion of the FED that only core CPI
is a valid indicator of inflation and living costs is ridiculous. The
real rate of inflation is around 13% from the first of the year and
the FED is pretending it's only around 2.3% because they discount
energy and food. Last year, real inflation was something like 9%.

Add increasing income taxes, increasing fees (my registrations went up
this year by $5 across the board), insurance, etc., boating is the
first to go.

WOW. Only 42 gallons in the boat! Count your blessings--I put in 110
gallons today--ouch! Did get away with only 18 gallons of Diesel in the
truck though. ;).

I only have a 50 gallon tank in the Ranger. :)

But speaking of which and somewhat related to Chuck's post, I know a
lot of the tourny fishermen around here are cutting back on their
weekend tournaments because of fuel prices - they can't afford to
travel anymore - it would cost them more to go than they could
potentially win.

34 Week inventory, sales down, stock soaring (????)
 

On Fri, 27 Apr 2007 01:34:19 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:

On 26 Apr 2007 18:08:12 -0700, Chuck Gould
wrote:

Means that folks of ordinary or upper middle class
means aren't buying boats, and that volume is pretty crucial to
pricing of a lot of goods and services that even those of us who
aren't going to be trading boats any time soon consume on a regular
basis.

I've been saying that for over a year now just based on observation
and intuition.

I'm not exactly destitute, but it cost me $204 today to fill the truck
with diesel (30 gallons - $83) and fill the boat (42 gallons - $121)
after burning off the old fuel this afternoon.

Do that every weekend, plus all the other expenses of going to work
(which I don't do), increasing food and home energy costs, something
has to give and that's going to be the boat.

While the economy is stable, this notion of the FED that only core CPI
is a valid indicator of inflation and living costs is ridiculous. The
real rate of inflation is around 13% from the first of the year and
the FED is pretending it's only around 2.3% because they discount
energy and food. Last year, real inflation was something like 9%.

Add increasing income taxes, increasing fees (my registrations went up
this year by $5 across the board), insurance, etc., boating is the
first to go.

....and besides, golf is not only cheaper, it's better exercise than
fishing, unless you walk on water!

34 Week inventory, sales down, stock soaring (????)
 

On Apr 27, 4:02�am, Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Thu, 26 Apr 2007 20:07:38 -0700, "Danlw"
wrote:







"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
.. .
On 26 Apr 2007 18:08:12 -0700, Chuck Gould
wrote:

Means that folks of ordinary or upper middle class
means aren't buying boats, and that volume is pretty crucial to
pricing of a lot of goods and services that even those of us who
aren't going to be trading boats any time soon consume on a regular
basis.

I've been saying that for over a year now just based on observation
and intuition.

I'm not exactly destitute, but it cost me $204 today to fill the truck
with diesel (30 gallons - $83) and fill the boat (42 gallons - $121)
after burning off the old fuel this afternoon.

Do that every weekend, plus all the other expenses of going to work
(which I don't do), increasing food and home energy costs, something
has to give and that's going to be the boat.

While the economy is stable, this notion of the FED that only core CPI
is a valid indicator of inflation and living costs is ridiculous. *The
real rate of inflation is around 13% from the first of the year and
the FED is pretending it's only around 2.3% because they discount
energy and food. *Last year, real inflation was something like 9%.

Add increasing income taxes, increasing fees (my registrations went up
this year by $5 across the board), insurance, etc., boating is the
first to go.

WOW. Only 42 gallons in the boat! *Count your blessings--I put in 110
gallons today--ouch! *Did get away with only 18 gallons of Diesel in the
truck though. ;).

I only have a 50 gallon tank in the Ranger. :)

But speaking of which and somewhat related to Chuck's post, I know a
lot of the tourny fishermen around here are cutting back on their
weekend tournaments because of fuel prices - they can't afford to
travel anymore - it would cost them more to go than they could
potentially win.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Wandering off a bit, but I heard a fascinating analysis of the fuel
price situation the other day.

The speaker postulated that when there is no realistic threat or
opportunity for a new supplier to enter the market and increase
supply, it becomes more profitable to short the market and sell to the
highest bidders than to ramp up production to meet demand. He said
that in my state, supply is managed down to the point where there is
only a 1-2% reserve on hand most of the time and when the reserve
begins shrinking prices are raised to raise profits as well as curtail
demand.

We have been exporting tanker loads of *refined* petroleum products
from WA to Canada and Japan; yet we are constantly hearing that a lack
of refinery capacity is to blame for high fuel prices.

The oil companies are entitled to make a decent return on their
product. Nothing says that we are entitled to cheap fuel; but each
year that prices get this ridiculously out of sight another group of
people decide to give up boating, flying, RVing, or etc. As people get
out of the sport, many of the suppliers of goods and services that are
part of the infrastructure begin to fail. Boat companies go OOB,
resort marinas close down, fuel docks have to shut, bait shacks don't
make it, etc. It's sad that the next generation won't have some of the
same recreational opportunities that we have enjoyed---- but then
again why should we assume the next generation even wants the same
recreational opportunities? The 20-somethings today are a pretty
different breed, (but that's probably always been the perspective of
old farts like me).