Shortwave Sportfishing wrote:
http://tinyurl.com/rc4vf

"Our second quarter results are in line with our expectations," said
Brunswick Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Dustan E. McCoy.
"Throughout the key second quarter selling season for 2006-model-year
marine products, however, we have experienced significant declines in
retail demand, which has resulted in an increase in pipeline
inventories. As we now enter the off- season, we can't rely solely on
retail demand to rebalance the pipeline. So, we will be reducing
further our production levels, leading to a lowering of our earnings
estimate for the second half of the year. This is primarily due to
reduced sales and the impact of fixed cost absorption from production
cuts needed to adjust pipeline inventories. Although this will result
in reduced margins, we believe that managing pipeline inventories is
critical in a cyclical, as well as a seasonal, industry."

Translation: "Oh oh - things ain't lookin' so good." :)


Brunswick is a pretty decent barometer of the new boat building
industry as a whole.
They offer a wide variety of products, spanning price points everywhere
between "affordable, entry-level" to "exclusive".

New boat sales are softer this year in some areas around the US this
year due to a combination of factors that overshadow the fairly healthy
appearance of our general economic climate.

First, of course, is the impact of soaring fuel costs. Most builders,
including most of the lines offered by Brunswick, have been behaving as
if fuel were free for the last several years. The most popular selling
models have been the boats with the biggest engines. With fuel dock
prices routinely at $4/gallon or more, the concept of $100- $200 an
hour fuel burns in some of the medium size boats is turning off a lot
of prospective newcomers to boating. When the newcomers disappear, so
does a lot of the market for second hand entry level boats, and many
the current boaters willing to turn a blind eye to fuel costs hesitate
to move up to a larger new boat before finding a buyer for their
present craft.

The second major factor is the return of real estate mortgage rates to
more traditional levels from a 2-3 year period of record lows, combined
with a moderation (in some cases a decrease) in housing prices. Much of
the recent activity in big ticket luxury sales (which obviously
includes boats) was funded by consumers using their homes like ATM's.
I'm certain we all know people who "refinanced" several times during
the last few years, and went on a spending spree every time. If they
went for the adjustable rate deal and borrowed the max that almost
anybody would lend them, watch for bargains appearing in their
driveways very soon. :-)

Minor factors would include the rapidly escalating prices for new
boats. One of my industry contacts reports that he is "shocked" by the
preliminary pricing he has seen for 2007 models. The explanation from
the factory was that "fiberglass boats are primarily a petroleum
product". Today's new boat prices might seem as anachronistic as $1.95/
gallon unleaded by this time next year. Real wage growth in many
traditional middle class occupations has been problematic for the last
couple of decades or so, and it appears that the expanding classes are
the upper class and the lower class while the middle class remains at a
fairly stagnant number (therefore a slowly eroding percentage of the
general population). Lower economic classes aren't good prospects for
new boats, and the upper classes will buy boats with very high dollar
markups but can't be relied upon to provide the unit volume required to
sustain a mass producer like Brunswick.

The immediate local market in the Pacific Northwest is off a bit from
last year, but not as badly hammered as markets in some other areas. We
are dealing with high fuel prices, just like everybody else, but have
so far escaped the slowdown in housing prices that is appearing in some
other major metro areas. (Average selling price of King County
properties is up 16% since the first of the year). The sense of
prosperity created by rising prices for dirt as well as the refi
opportunities still available to those who aren't put off by the
interest rates spins off some "free money" (ha!) that people will use
for high ticket luxury items- including boats.

On 12 Jul 2006 09:33:33 -0700, "Chuck Gould"
wrote:


Shortwave Sportfishing wrote:
http://tinyurl.com/rc4vf

"Our second quarter results are in line with our expectations," said
Brunswick Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Dustan E. McCoy.
"Throughout the key second quarter selling season for 2006-model-year
marine products, however, we have experienced significant declines in
retail demand, which has resulted in an increase in pipeline
inventories. As we now enter the off- season, we can't rely solely on
retail demand to rebalance the pipeline. So, we will be reducing
further our production levels, leading to a lowering of our earnings
estimate for the second half of the year. This is primarily due to
reduced sales and the impact of fixed cost absorption from production
cuts needed to adjust pipeline inventories. Although this will result
in reduced margins, we believe that managing pipeline inventories is
critical in a cyclical, as well as a seasonal, industry."

Translation: "Oh oh - things ain't lookin' so good." :)


Brunswick is a pretty decent barometer of the new boat building
industry as a whole.
They offer a wide variety of products, spanning price points everywhere
between "affordable, entry-level" to "exclusive".

New boat sales are softer this year in some areas around the US this
year due to a combination of factors that overshadow the fairly healthy
appearance of our general economic climate.

First, of course, is the impact of soaring fuel costs. Most builders,
including most of the lines offered by Brunswick, have been behaving as
if fuel were free for the last several years. The most popular selling
models have been the boats with the biggest engines. With fuel dock
prices routinely at $4/gallon or more, the concept of $100- $200 an
hour fuel burns in some of the medium size boats is turning off a lot
of prospective newcomers to boating. When the newcomers disappear, so
does a lot of the market for second hand entry level boats, and many
the current boaters willing to turn a blind eye to fuel costs hesitate
to move up to a larger new boat before finding a buyer for their
present craft.

The second major factor is the return of real estate mortgage rates to
more traditional levels from a 2-3 year period of record lows, combined
with a moderation (in some cases a decrease) in housing prices. Much of
the recent activity in big ticket luxury sales (which obviously
includes boats) was funded by consumers using their homes like ATM's.
I'm certain we all know people who "refinanced" several times during
the last few years, and went on a spending spree every time. If they
went for the adjustable rate deal and borrowed the max that almost
anybody would lend them, watch for bargains appearing in their
driveways very soon. :-)

Minor factors would include the rapidly escalating prices for new
boats. One of my industry contacts reports that he is "shocked" by the
preliminary pricing he has seen for 2007 models. The explanation from
the factory was that "fiberglass boats are primarily a petroleum
product". Today's new boat prices might seem as anachronistic as $1.95/
gallon unleaded by this time next year. Real wage growth in many
traditional middle class occupations has been problematic for the last
couple of decades or so, and it appears that the expanding classes are
the upper class and the lower class while the middle class remains at a
fairly stagnant number (therefore a slowly eroding percentage of the
general population). Lower economic classes aren't good prospects for
new boats, and the upper classes will buy boats with very high dollar
markups but can't be relied upon to provide the unit volume required to
sustain a mass producer like Brunswick.

The immediate local market in the Pacific Northwest is off a bit from
last year, but not as badly hammered as markets in some other areas. We
are dealing with high fuel prices, just like everybody else, but have
so far escaped the slowdown in housing prices that is appearing in some
other major metro areas. (Average selling price of King County
properties is up 16% since the first of the year). The sense of
prosperity created by rising prices for dirt as well as the refi
opportunities still available to those who aren't put off by the
interest rates spins off some "free money" (ha!) that people will use
for high ticket luxury items- including boats.

Some great points there, Chuck.

Maybe I'll sell my house for big bucks (to me anyway) and move to North
Carolina where I can be close to water, close to golf, decently close to
the kids, and get a nice house for about a third of what mine will sell
for. *Then* I may consider a new boat, paid for with cash.
--
******************************************
***** Have a Spectacular Day! *****
******************************************

John

"Chuck Gould" wrote in message
ups.com...

Shortwave Sportfishing wrote:
http://tinyurl.com/rc4vf

"Our second quarter results are in line with our expectations," said
Brunswick Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Dustan E. McCoy.
"Throughout the key second quarter selling season for 2006-model-year
marine products, however, we have experienced significant declines in
retail demand, which has resulted in an increase in pipeline
inventories. As we now enter the off- season, we can't rely solely on
retail demand to rebalance the pipeline. So, we will be reducing
further our production levels, leading to a lowering of our earnings
estimate for the second half of the year. This is primarily due to
reduced sales and the impact of fixed cost absorption from production
cuts needed to adjust pipeline inventories. Although this will result
in reduced margins, we believe that managing pipeline inventories is
critical in a cyclical, as well as a seasonal, industry."

Translation: "Oh oh - things ain't lookin' so good." :)


Brunswick is a pretty decent barometer of the new boat building
industry as a whole.
They offer a wide variety of products, spanning price points everywhere
between "affordable, entry-level" to "exclusive".

New boat sales are softer this year in some areas around the US this
year due to a combination of factors that overshadow the fairly healthy
appearance of our general economic climate.

First, of course, is the impact of soaring fuel costs. Most builders,
including most of the lines offered by Brunswick, have been behaving as
if fuel were free for the last several years. The most popular selling
models have been the boats with the biggest engines. With fuel dock
prices routinely at $4/gallon or more, the concept of $100- $200 an
hour fuel burns in some of the medium size boats is turning off a lot
of prospective newcomers to boating. When the newcomers disappear, so
does a lot of the market for second hand entry level boats, and many
the current boaters willing to turn a blind eye to fuel costs hesitate
to move up to a larger new boat before finding a buyer for their
present craft.

The second major factor is the return of real estate mortgage rates to
more traditional levels from a 2-3 year period of record lows, combined
with a moderation (in some cases a decrease) in housing prices. Much of
the recent activity in big ticket luxury sales (which obviously
includes boats) was funded by consumers using their homes like ATM's.
I'm certain we all know people who "refinanced" several times during
the last few years, and went on a spending spree every time. If they
went for the adjustable rate deal and borrowed the max that almost
anybody would lend them, watch for bargains appearing in their
driveways very soon. :-)

Minor factors would include the rapidly escalating prices for new
boats. One of my industry contacts reports that he is "shocked" by the
preliminary pricing he has seen for 2007 models.

Chuck,
You practically plagiarized the post that I sent 30 minutes before you wrote
this. But I won't hold a grudge. At least this wasn't another one of your
net-cop responses.

"Shortwave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On 12 Jul 2006 09:33:33 -0700, "Chuck Gould"
wrote:

~~ snippage ~~

The immediate local market in the Pacific Northwest is off a bit from
last year, but not as badly hammered as markets in some other areas. We
are dealing with high fuel prices, just like everybody else, but have
so far escaped the slowdown in housing prices that is appearing in some
other major metro areas. (Average selling price of King County
properties is up 16% since the first of the year). The sense of
prosperity created by rising prices for dirt as well as the refi
opportunities still available to those who aren't put off by the
interest rates spins off some "free money" (ha!) that people will use
for high ticket luxury items- including boats.

Well said and I can't really disagree with anything you presented.

There have been days when I've seen you disagree with things as true as the
idea that fish prefer water to trees. You must be in a better mood today.

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...

"Chuck Gould" wrote in message
ups.com...

Shortwave Sportfishing wrote:
http://tinyurl.com/rc4vf

"Our second quarter results are in line with our expectations," said
Brunswick Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Dustan E. McCoy.
"Throughout the key second quarter selling season for 2006-model-year
marine products, however, we have experienced significant declines in
retail demand, which has resulted in an increase in pipeline
inventories. As we now enter the off- season, we can't rely solely on
retail demand to rebalance the pipeline. So, we will be reducing
further our production levels, leading to a lowering of our earnings
estimate for the second half of the year. This is primarily due to
reduced sales and the impact of fixed cost absorption from production
cuts needed to adjust pipeline inventories. Although this will result
in reduced margins, we believe that managing pipeline inventories is
critical in a cyclical, as well as a seasonal, industry."

Translation: "Oh oh - things ain't lookin' so good." :)


Brunswick is a pretty decent barometer of the new boat building
industry as a whole.
They offer a wide variety of products, spanning price points everywhere
between "affordable, entry-level" to "exclusive".

New boat sales are softer this year in some areas around the US this
year due to a combination of factors that overshadow the fairly healthy
appearance of our general economic climate.

First, of course, is the impact of soaring fuel costs. Most builders,
including most of the lines offered by Brunswick, have been behaving as
if fuel were free for the last several years. The most popular selling
models have been the boats with the biggest engines. With fuel dock
prices routinely at $4/gallon or more, the concept of $100- $200 an
hour fuel burns in some of the medium size boats is turning off a lot
of prospective newcomers to boating. When the newcomers disappear, so
does a lot of the market for second hand entry level boats, and many
the current boaters willing to turn a blind eye to fuel costs hesitate
to move up to a larger new boat before finding a buyer for their
present craft.

The second major factor is the return of real estate mortgage rates to
more traditional levels from a 2-3 year period of record lows, combined
with a moderation (in some cases a decrease) in housing prices. Much of
the recent activity in big ticket luxury sales (which obviously
includes boats) was funded by consumers using their homes like ATM's.
I'm certain we all know people who "refinanced" several times during
the last few years, and went on a spending spree every time. If they
went for the adjustable rate deal and borrowed the max that almost
anybody would lend them, watch for bargains appearing in their
driveways very soon. :-)

Minor factors would include the rapidly escalating prices for new
boats. One of my industry contacts reports that he is "shocked" by the
preliminary pricing he has seen for 2007 models.

Chuck,
You practically plagiarized the post that I sent 30 minutes before you
wrote this.

Hmmm....I bet he did not read your post Nobby. Maybe you and Chuck are
twins separated at birth. ;-)

NOYB wrote:

Chuck,
You practically plagiarized the post that I sent 30 minutes before you wrote
this. But I won't hold a grudge. At least this wasn't another one of your
net-cop responses.

I'm a fast typer, NOYB- but I wasy busy typing my 4-5 paragraphs at the
same time your fired off your 6-8 lines. The fact that we both hold a
similar theory about current economic trends impacting boat sales
doesn't mean that either of us plagiarized the other.

I suppose you're probably upset because we actually agree on something?
Perhaps that explains the unwarranted snide remark.

" JimH" jimhUNDERSCOREosudad@yahooDOTcom wrote in message
...

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...

"Chuck Gould" wrote in message
ups.com...

Shortwave Sportfishing wrote:
http://tinyurl.com/rc4vf

"Our second quarter results are in line with our expectations," said
Brunswick Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Dustan E. McCoy.
"Throughout the key second quarter selling season for 2006-model-year
marine products, however, we have experienced significant declines in
retail demand, which has resulted in an increase in pipeline
inventories. As we now enter the off- season, we can't rely solely on
retail demand to rebalance the pipeline. So, we will be reducing
further our production levels, leading to a lowering of our earnings
estimate for the second half of the year. This is primarily due to
reduced sales and the impact of fixed cost absorption from production
cuts needed to adjust pipeline inventories. Although this will result
in reduced margins, we believe that managing pipeline inventories is
critical in a cyclical, as well as a seasonal, industry."

Translation: "Oh oh - things ain't lookin' so good." :)


Brunswick is a pretty decent barometer of the new boat building
industry as a whole.
They offer a wide variety of products, spanning price points everywhere
between "affordable, entry-level" to "exclusive".

New boat sales are softer this year in some areas around the US this
year due to a combination of factors that overshadow the fairly healthy
appearance of our general economic climate.

First, of course, is the impact of soaring fuel costs. Most builders,
including most of the lines offered by Brunswick, have been behaving as
if fuel were free for the last several years. The most popular selling
models have been the boats with the biggest engines. With fuel dock
prices routinely at $4/gallon or more, the concept of $100- $200 an
hour fuel burns in some of the medium size boats is turning off a lot
of prospective newcomers to boating. When the newcomers disappear, so
does a lot of the market for second hand entry level boats, and many
the current boaters willing to turn a blind eye to fuel costs hesitate
to move up to a larger new boat before finding a buyer for their
present craft.

The second major factor is the return of real estate mortgage rates to
more traditional levels from a 2-3 year period of record lows, combined
with a moderation (in some cases a decrease) in housing prices. Much of
the recent activity in big ticket luxury sales (which obviously
includes boats) was funded by consumers using their homes like ATM's.
I'm certain we all know people who "refinanced" several times during
the last few years, and went on a spending spree every time. If they
went for the adjustable rate deal and borrowed the max that almost
anybody would lend them, watch for bargains appearing in their
driveways very soon. :-)

Minor factors would include the rapidly escalating prices for new
boats. One of my industry contacts reports that he is "shocked" by the
preliminary pricing he has seen for 2007 models.

Chuck,
You practically plagiarized the post that I sent 30 minutes before you
wrote this.

Hmmm....I bet he did not read your post Nobby. Maybe you and Chuck are
twins separated at birth. ;-)

He's my alter ego.

"Chuck Gould" wrote in message
oups.com...

NOYB wrote:

Chuck,
You practically plagiarized the post that I sent 30 minutes before you
wrote
this. But I won't hold a grudge. At least this wasn't another one of
your
net-cop responses.

I'm a fast typer, NOYB- but I wasy busy typing my 4-5 paragraphs at the
same time your fired off your 6-8 lines. The fact that we both hold a
similar theory about current economic trends impacting boat sales
doesn't mean that either of us plagiarized the other.

I suppose you're probably upset because we actually agree on something?

Yes, it bothers me that we could actually be on the same wavelength at
times.

"NOYB" wrote in message
nk.net...

" JimH" jimhUNDERSCOREosudad@yahooDOTcom wrote in message
...

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...

"Chuck Gould" wrote in message
ups.com...

Shortwave Sportfishing wrote:
http://tinyurl.com/rc4vf

"Our second quarter results are in line with our expectations," said
Brunswick Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Dustan E. McCoy.
"Throughout the key second quarter selling season for 2006-model-year
marine products, however, we have experienced significant declines in
retail demand, which has resulted in an increase in pipeline
inventories. As we now enter the off- season, we can't rely solely on
retail demand to rebalance the pipeline. So, we will be reducing
further our production levels, leading to a lowering of our earnings
estimate for the second half of the year. This is primarily due to
reduced sales and the impact of fixed cost absorption from production
cuts needed to adjust pipeline inventories. Although this will result
in reduced margins, we believe that managing pipeline inventories is
critical in a cyclical, as well as a seasonal, industry."

Translation: "Oh oh - things ain't lookin' so good." :)


Brunswick is a pretty decent barometer of the new boat building
industry as a whole.
They offer a wide variety of products, spanning price points everywhere
between "affordable, entry-level" to "exclusive".

New boat sales are softer this year in some areas around the US this
year due to a combination of factors that overshadow the fairly healthy
appearance of our general economic climate.

First, of course, is the impact of soaring fuel costs. Most builders,
including most of the lines offered by Brunswick, have been behaving as
if fuel were free for the last several years. The most popular selling
models have been the boats with the biggest engines. With fuel dock
prices routinely at $4/gallon or more, the concept of $100- $200 an
hour fuel burns in some of the medium size boats is turning off a lot
of prospective newcomers to boating. When the newcomers disappear, so
does a lot of the market for second hand entry level boats, and many
the current boaters willing to turn a blind eye to fuel costs hesitate
to move up to a larger new boat before finding a buyer for their
present craft.

The second major factor is the return of real estate mortgage rates to
more traditional levels from a 2-3 year period of record lows, combined
with a moderation (in some cases a decrease) in housing prices. Much of
the recent activity in big ticket luxury sales (which obviously
includes boats) was funded by consumers using their homes like ATM's.
I'm certain we all know people who "refinanced" several times during
the last few years, and went on a spending spree every time. If they
went for the adjustable rate deal and borrowed the max that almost
anybody would lend them, watch for bargains appearing in their
driveways very soon. :-)

Minor factors would include the rapidly escalating prices for new
boats. One of my industry contacts reports that he is "shocked" by the
preliminary pricing he has seen for 2007 models.

Chuck,
You practically plagiarized the post that I sent 30 minutes before you
wrote this.

Hmmm....I bet he did not read your post Nobby. Maybe you and Chuck are
twins separated at birth. ;-)

He's my alter ego.



I can imagine a Darth Vader, Luke Skywalker
scenario.........................

You sure you don't mean R2D2 and C3-PO?


JimH wrote:
"NOYB" wrote in message
nk.net...

" JimH" jimhUNDERSCOREosudad@yahooDOTcom wrote in message
...

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...

"Chuck Gould" wrote in message
ups.com...

Shortwave Sportfishing wrote:
http://tinyurl.com/rc4vf

"Our second quarter results are in line with our expectations," said
Brunswick Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Dustan E. McCoy.
"Throughout the key second quarter selling season for 2006-model-year
marine products, however, we have experienced significant declines in
retail demand, which has resulted in an increase in pipeline
inventories. As we now enter the off- season, we can't rely solely on
retail demand to rebalance the pipeline. So, we will be reducing
further our production levels, leading to a lowering of our earnings
estimate for the second half of the year. This is primarily due to
reduced sales and the impact of fixed cost absorption from production
cuts needed to adjust pipeline inventories. Although this will result
in reduced margins, we believe that managing pipeline inventories is
critical in a cyclical, as well as a seasonal, industry."

Translation: "Oh oh - things ain't lookin' so good." :)


Brunswick is a pretty decent barometer of the new boat building
industry as a whole.
They offer a wide variety of products, spanning price points everywhere
between "affordable, entry-level" to "exclusive".

New boat sales are softer this year in some areas around the US this
year due to a combination of factors that overshadow the fairly healthy
appearance of our general economic climate.

First, of course, is the impact of soaring fuel costs. Most builders,
including most of the lines offered by Brunswick, have been behaving as
if fuel were free for the last several years. The most popular selling
models have been the boats with the biggest engines. With fuel dock
prices routinely at $4/gallon or more, the concept of $100- $200 an
hour fuel burns in some of the medium size boats is turning off a lot
of prospective newcomers to boating. When the newcomers disappear, so
does a lot of the market for second hand entry level boats, and many
the current boaters willing to turn a blind eye to fuel costs hesitate
to move up to a larger new boat before finding a buyer for their
present craft.

The second major factor is the return of real estate mortgage rates to
more traditional levels from a 2-3 year period of record lows, combined
with a moderation (in some cases a decrease) in housing prices. Much of
the recent activity in big ticket luxury sales (which obviously
includes boats) was funded by consumers using their homes like ATM's.
I'm certain we all know people who "refinanced" several times during
the last few years, and went on a spending spree every time. If they
went for the adjustable rate deal and borrowed the max that almost
anybody would lend them, watch for bargains appearing in their
driveways very soon. :-)

Minor factors would include the rapidly escalating prices for new
boats. One of my industry contacts reports that he is "shocked" by the
preliminary pricing he has seen for 2007 models.

Chuck,
You practically plagiarized the post that I sent 30 minutes before you
wrote this.

Hmmm....I bet he did not read your post Nobby. Maybe you and Chuck are
twins separated at birth. ;-)

He's my alter ego.



I can imagine a Darth Vader, Luke Skywalker
scenario.........................