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One for the not so swift among us-
Jack Goff wrote:
Of course not. But those records are woefully incomplete to enable an accurate model to be constructed. How many weather satellites did we have 100 years ago? You seem to be thinking that climate is like an NPN transistor. It's not. Think of a black box with 200 inputs and 10 outputs. We know what the ouputs are, and can measure them. We know what most of the inputs are, and are pretty sure about the rest. It's reasonable to assume that there's a few that we don't know about, and may never know. Of the inputs we understand, we've just recently identified and have been able to measure many of them (in the climate timeline scheme of things). We've seen that there is a huge time lag inside of this box, sometimes years, sometimes decades. Finally, we have virtually no control of any of the inputs, so we can't change just one and observe the outputs. Most of the inputs are totally out of our control, and are constantly changing. So once again, unlike your simple circuit on the bench, the climate computer model can not be verified against the real world. So answer this, Rick. As previously discussed, weather models can't tell us with any decent accuracy what it will be like in 5 days. Are you really telling me that you believe a climate model's prediction for 94 years into the future? Jack While historical data is admittedly incomplete that doesn't make it useless nor is accurate 94 year extrapolation necessary for model utility. Obviously the methodology differs from fields where controlled experiments are practical, a limitation not unique to climatology. Where I live the five day forecasts are pretty good these days, much better than they were a decade ago. "All models are wrong, some are useful". -rick- |
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