On Fri, 08 Aug 2003 03:06:02 GMT, "Jim"
wrote:


Ahh, but if you bothered to read my entire post, it was not only a one week drop I
reported but a drop in the month of July. Spin it anyway you want to. The fact is
that unemployment dropped in July.


I'm only jumping into this, because it is somewhat related to boating,
as this economy is impacting all industries.

It has not been shown that unemployment dropped, only that the folks
being put out of work dropped. Not that alone, the media that spins
this news routinely forgets to mention that thousands of folks finally
run out of their benefits, and are no longer a "statistic." It
doesn't mean they've entered the workforce, or it would show in other
data. Jobs are moving overseas, and will continue to do so.
Companies are myopic in this regard, because their only concern is
profits, which makes corporate executives rich, and gives analysts
their fuel to prosper.

Another spin on your part. The fact is that productivity increased for 2 straight
quarters.

Spin? Productivity.........Part of Greenspan's "new economy."
Productivity is wonderful for corporate America, as it drives, that's
right, profits. Take a look at what the media and analysts purport to
be "surprisingly good earnings" for Q2. Earnings on cost cutting, tax
benefits, aquisitions, and a weak dollar are not earnings.

Companies are now finding that they can squeeze more work out of each
employee, so they're unlikely to hire. Moreover, they'll use these
current metrics when the economy does start to recover, so as business
does improve, the rate of adding new employees will be much lower than
in the past. Q2 GDP was driven almost exclusively by mortgage
activity, and with interest rates surging upward, GDP likely won't see
this benefit in Q3.

Bear in mind that you don't see the full story unless you dig for it.
The media, analysts and economists work in concert to spin even poor
data, making sure everyone has a good prescription for their rose
colored glasses. Talk to folks on the front line, and they'll look at
you cross-eyed if you start talking "recovery".

"SeaDweller" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 08 Aug 2003 03:06:02 GMT, "Jim"
wrote:


Ahh, but if you bothered to read my entire post, it was not only a one week drop I
reported but a drop in the month of July. Spin it anyway you want to. The fact is
that unemployment dropped in July.


I'm only jumping into this, because it is somewhat related to boating,
as this economy is impacting all industries.

It has not been shown that unemployment dropped, only that the folks
being put out of work dropped. Not that alone, the media that spins
this news routinely forgets to mention that thousands of folks finally
run out of their benefits, and are no longer a "statistic." It
doesn't mean they've entered the workforce, or it would show in other
data. Jobs are moving overseas, and will continue to do so.
Companies are myopic in this regard, because their only concern is
profits, which makes corporate executives rich, and gives analysts
their fuel to prosper.

Unemployment rates have been calculated in exactly the same way for decades. If you
find flaw in the way they are developed I suggest you contact the US BLS.



Another spin on your part. The fact is that productivity increased for 2 straight
quarters.

Spin? Productivity.........Part of Greenspan's "new economy."
Productivity is wonderful for corporate America, as it drives, that's
right, profits. Take a look at what the media and analysts purport to
be "surprisingly good earnings" for Q2. Earnings on cost cutting, tax
benefits, aquisitions, and a weak dollar are not earnings.

Companies are now finding that they can squeeze more work out of each
employee, so they're unlikely to hire. Moreover, they'll use these
current metrics when the economy does start to recover, so as business
does improve, the rate of adding new employees will be much lower than
in the past. Q2 GDP was driven almost exclusively by mortgage
activity, and with interest rates surging upward, GDP likely won't see
this benefit in Q3.

With greater productivity comes higher corporate profits (that is, afterall, what
companies are in business for, correct?) which leads to expansions and more employees.
That is Economy 101.

The productivity rate increased to 5.7%, almost twice the annual average of 2.8% from
'96 to '02.

Jobless claims also fell almost 1%, the lowest since February, 03.

The economy also expanded last quarter at a 2.4% annual rate, a full % point faster
than the first quarter '03.

The Dow and NASDAQ have shown strong gains the 1st 2 quarters of this year.

Add it all together and the end result will be more people working and lower
unemployment. We have already seen a dip in unemployment from June to July.

You put whatever negative spin you want on it but the numbers show otherwise.

" Sorry libs, the sky certainly ain't a fallin'.

Everyone's greater concern is that this represents another example of
increasing productivity NOT being returned to Middle America in the
form higher wages or growing job quality and quantity.

I don't usually contribute to off-topic political posts, but I am
becoming increasingly worried about the future of jobs in this nation.
USA TODAY, this week, had a section on the mass export of jobs to
India that are traditionally professional jobs, such as IT, Claims
Adjusting, Customer Service, Banking, ETC. Many Fortune 500 companies
now have call centers in India to handle customer service. Indian
workers assume American names such as "Jennnifer Smith" as a pseudonym
at work and converse daily with thousands of Americans. COmmunication
costs have dropped, so all this can be moved offshore.

The manufacturing sector continues to die a little more each time we
go through this. I think we are coming to a crossroad where jobs
worth having will not be in this nation. Temping, low wages, and no
job security are not going to get mortgages, pay children's college
tuition, and run this economy.

Our entire economy right now is built on second mortgages digging
Americans "out of debt". People have now instituionalized their
consumer debt as 15-30 year first or second mortgages. The result is
little discretionary income as those individuals turn around and add
new credit card debt to maintian thier lifestyle. I honestly fear
there will be large new consumer debt, no new way to spread it out to
make it more manageable, and folks are going to find themselves moving
into their 50's & 60's with large debts, and no where to turn.

We have been threatened to raise productivity (with no reward for
doing so), taught to fear for our jobs, keep our heads down, and
don't expect anything more than the privilage of keeping our job for
one more month. The current administration must either address the
issue, or admit to our children that "every child will be left behind"
unless they are well-connected as they are the first generation that
will achieve less than their parents (as a whole).

I see no sacrifice or challenges to the upper incomes in this nation,
but we are gutting the middle class, stomping on the working class,
and not being told the truth. I listened carefully to the President's
address on the lawn of the White House before he went on vacation.
Constant questions about jobs resulted in vague, contentless, babbble
about "savings accounts" for job seekers, needing to invest in high
tech training, etc. As I said earlier, we are shipping these jobs
overseas.

I supported President Bush, but I'm quickly losing faith in him. I
watch the justification for war evaporate, more manufacturing jobs,
and now professional jobs, go overseas, aging men try to fulfil dreams
of glory that were applicable to the 1970's, and a significant shift
of tax policy and wealth shift to the upper class. This
administration is attempting to do away with defined pension plans to
"assist business" with the burdens they bear, etc. etc.

I have actually heard my 15 year old son remark about hoping to have
what mom and dad have when he is our age. That would be a 16 year old
Carver, a 13 year old and a 3 year car in the garage, and two kids in
braces at $5K per mouth. Will he do it?

Thanks for lending me your ear. I have no desire to flame or argue,
and won't reply to any responses. I'm just concerned, that's all.

Regards,

Coff

"Gould 0738" wrote in message
...
Unemployment rates have been calculated in exactly the same way for decades.
If you
find flaw in the way they are developed I suggest you contact the US BLS.

Your article didn't address unemployment rates at all.

The BLS links I provided at the bottom of that post certainly did. Did you miss that?

It specifically noted
"new claims for unemployment benefits." Sea Dweller is right- it's only a
measurement of how many additional people joined the ranks of the unemployed-
just under 400,000 each week noted in the report.

We'd have to compare the number of new jobs created (a statistic missing from
the new account) with the number of people laid off and fired as well as the
number of
"discouraged" workers who have run out of
benefits, still can't find work, and move in with relatives, etc, to determine
whether total employment went up or down.

If unemployment is declining, that's great. But you can't show that by noting
the "new claims for jobless benefits". The claims only establish the rate at
which people are becoming unemployed, not how many people are laid off vs.
working.


Put whatever spin you want on it but I stand by my previous statement and the facts I
presented.



With greater productivity comes higher corporate profits (that is, afterall,
what
companies are in business for, correct?) which leads to expansions and more
employees.
That is Economy 101.

No, that's not what recent history has shown us.

I see you use the disclaimer *recent* when looking at history. Interesting.

But history *has* shown us exactly what I described.

Ever take an economics course Chuck?

Been to major downtown bank
lately? Forty years ago, a big bank would have been wall to wall desks. Lending
officers, accountants, clerks, secretaries, typists, etc. Today, your footsteps
echo across acres of empty, marble floors. More efficient technology created
productivity increases, so banks are able to accomplish more business and
earn more profits with far *fewer* people than ever before. The banking
industry did not use the increased profits to increase payroll.......just the
opposite. It used the decreased payroll to further increase profits. One of the
banks I do business with has a goofy looking telephone booth in the lobby,
along with a sign that says
"Talk to a banker!" You pick up the phone and get transferred to some high
school kid reading a script in Omaha, for all I know. Increased efficiency and
productivity
seldom result in an increase in payroll....and one of the corporate incentives
to be more productive and efficient is to be in a position to *decrease*
payroll expense.

Automation has reduced the number of workers needed to do a job. Productivity has
increased as a result of it.

Menial jobs have been replaced by robots and PC's. Many have also gone overseas. You
have to be educated and offer a skill to survive in todays job market. The days of the
high school graduate working on an assembly line and making the same money as a college
educated teacher or engineer are numbered.

Like it or not automation is here to stay. And it is not a bad thing. Get with the
times or get passed over.


"We could automate widget packaging. The machine would cost $300,000."

"We really shouldn't spend $300,000 this quarter."

"We can eliminate 4 employees in the packing department, and with benefits
considered we'll save almost $200k in the next 12 months. That's a fairly
decent return on investment."

"Sold!"

That's reality, 101.

No, that is negative thinking and speculation 101.



The productivity rate increased to 5.7%, almost twice the annual average of
2.8% from
'96 to '02.

Could it be some of the remaining workers are so frightened for their jobs they
are working a few hours "off the clock'?

Again, negative thinking and conjecture.

I would hate to live in your negative world Chuck.

My dad has been trying to talk to someone at Dell computers about an error
they made, and all he keeps reaching are ex-7-11 employees. I figure that
the latest trend of using foreign speaking people in customer support won't
last long once the customer satisfaction polling data comes in.



"Coff" wrote in message
om...
" Sorry libs, the sky certainly ain't a fallin'.

Everyone's greater concern is that this represents another example of
increasing productivity NOT being returned to Middle America in the
form higher wages or growing job quality and quantity.

I don't usually contribute to off-topic political posts, but I am
becoming increasingly worried about the future of jobs in this nation.
USA TODAY, this week, had a section on the mass export of jobs to
India that are traditionally professional jobs, such as IT, Claims
Adjusting, Customer Service, Banking, ETC. Many Fortune 500 companies
now have call centers in India to handle customer service. Indian
workers assume American names such as "Jennnifer Smith" as a pseudonym
at work and converse daily with thousands of Americans. COmmunication
costs have dropped, so all this can be moved offshore.

The manufacturing sector continues to die a little more each time we
go through this. I think we are coming to a crossroad where jobs
worth having will not be in this nation. Temping, low wages, and no
job security are not going to get mortgages, pay children's college
tuition, and run this economy.

Our entire economy right now is built on second mortgages digging
Americans "out of debt". People have now instituionalized their
consumer debt as 15-30 year first or second mortgages. The result is
little discretionary income as those individuals turn around and add
new credit card debt to maintian thier lifestyle. I honestly fear
there will be large new consumer debt, no new way to spread it out to
make it more manageable, and folks are going to find themselves moving
into their 50's & 60's with large debts, and no where to turn.

We have been threatened to raise productivity (with no reward for
doing so), taught to fear for our jobs, keep our heads down, and
don't expect anything more than the privilage of keeping our job for
one more month. The current administration must either address the
issue, or admit to our children that "every child will be left behind"
unless they are well-connected as they are the first generation that
will achieve less than their parents (as a whole).

I see no sacrifice or challenges to the upper incomes in this nation,
but we are gutting the middle class, stomping on the working class,
and not being told the truth. I listened carefully to the President's
address on the lawn of the White House before he went on vacation.
Constant questions about jobs resulted in vague, contentless, babbble
about "savings accounts" for job seekers, needing to invest in high
tech training, etc. As I said earlier, we are shipping these jobs
overseas.

I supported President Bush, but I'm quickly losing faith in him. I
watch the justification for war evaporate, more manufacturing jobs,
and now professional jobs, go overseas, aging men try to fulfil dreams
of glory that were applicable to the 1970's, and a significant shift
of tax policy and wealth shift to the upper class. This
administration is attempting to do away with defined pension plans to
"assist business" with the burdens they bear, etc. etc.

I have actually heard my 15 year old son remark about hoping to have
what mom and dad have when he is our age. That would be a 16 year old
Carver, a 13 year old and a 3 year car in the garage, and two kids in
braces at $5K per mouth. Will he do it?

Thanks for lending me your ear. I have no desire to flame or argue,
and won't reply to any responses. I'm just concerned, that's all.

Regards,

Coff

On Fri, 08 Aug 2003 12:34:08 GMT, "Jim"
wrote:

Unemployment rates have been calculated in exactly the same way for decades. If you
find flaw in the way they are developed I suggest you contact the US BLS.

There's certainly flaws in the data, but at least these same flaws are
carried over month-to-month! You're confusing new claims with the
unemployment rate, and they are not one in the same. New claims are
declining, but that doesn't mean the core unemployment rate is
declining. If more folks are put out of work than are hired, what do
you think occurs?

The unemployment rate fell in July, but not because businesses were
creating jobs -- it's because more than a half million people took
themselves out of the workforce.

With greater productivity comes higher corporate profits (that is, afterall, what
companies are in business for, correct?) which leads to expansions and more employees.
That is Economy 101.

Indeed, but therein lies the core issue.........Corporate earnings
(profits) are coming from increased productivity and cost cutting, not
increases in revenue. How can companies expand and add more employees
if their revenues are flat? Don't forget supply and demand in your
discussion of Economics 101.

You put whatever negative spin you want on it but the numbers show otherwise.

I'm not trying to put a negative spin on the numbers, they speak for
themselves.

The BLS links I provided at the bottom of that post certainly did. Did you
miss that?

I seldom follow links provided in a post unless the only message is "check this
link." Beyond that, I expect that most of the important facts have been
presented in the main body of the argument.
No, I didn't follow the link.


Put whatever spin you want on it but I stand by my previous statement and the
facts I
presented.



I don't think anybody is disputing your facts. Just the interpretation.


I see you use the disclaimer *recent* when looking at history. Interesting.

What happens tomorrow is probably going to be a whole lot more like what
happened last week or last year than what happened
50, 100, or 1000 years ago. Yeah.


Automation has reduced the number of workers needed to do a job.
Productivity has
increased as a result of it.

We agree. (We disagree that increassed productivity always leads to the
creation of new jobs.)

Menial jobs have been replaced by robots and PC's. Many have also gone
overseas. You
have to be educated and offer a skill to survive in todays job market.

......and your edcated, skillful, job increasingly *must* include some element
that requires your physical presence in a specific location. It's not just the
widget welding jobs that are going offshore these days. Hardworking people with
5-6 years of
college and technical skills are losing jobs to competing workers in South
America, India, the Phillipines, the former Soviet Union, etc. If you can
"tele-commute" to your job from Cul-de-sac Acres, some other guy can
"tele-commute" from Bangkok. While he could live about as well as you can on
about 20% of your salary, your company will only pay him about 10%. Bummer.

The days of the
high school graduate working on an assembly line and making the same money as
a college
educated teacher or engineer are numbered.

Most assembly line workers make more than most teachers. :-)


Like it or not automation is here to stay. And it is not a bad thing. Get
with the
times or get passed over.

Once again, we don't disagree. But, how does this increasing automation,
resulting in more productivity per employee, bring about increasing numbers of
jobs? Automation is embraced by industry because it *decreases* payroll
expense.



"We could automate widget packaging. The machine would cost $300,000."

"We really shouldn't spend $300,000 this quarter."

"We can eliminate 4 employees in the packing department, and with benefits
considered we'll save almost $200k in the next 12 months. That's a fairly
decent return on investment."

"Sold!"

That's reality, 101.

No, that is negative thinking and speculation 101.



The productivity rate increased to 5.7%, almost twice the annual average
of
2.8% from
'96 to '02.

Could it be some of the remaining workers are so frightened for their jobs
they
are working a few hours "off the clock'?

Again, negative thinking and conjecture.

I would hate to live in your negative world Chuck.

(You know, there used to be a guy posting here as "Dennis Compton" who would
accuse anybody not beating the pro-Bush conservative drum as a negative
thinker.
You couldn't possibly be the same guy, since after a short period of time every
one of his posts was nothing but personal attack from end to end. Poor dude had
to be one frustrated Jose about the time he disappeared.)

"Jim" wrote in message
news:usEYa.92129$uu5.12579@sccrnsc04...

Ahh, but if you bothered to read my entire post, it was not only a one
week drop I
reported but a drop in the month of July. Spin it anyway you want to.
The fact is
that unemployment dropped in July.


Hmmm. Wait till they tally up Kodak's latest round of layoffs. Another 5,000
will bite the dust shortly.

"Gould 0738" wrote in message
...
Excerpt:
"U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky, D-1st, and U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind.,
have made another move in their efforts to prevent the closure of the
Magnequench facility in Valparaiso and its re-location to the People's
Republic of China."

hahaha Follow the link!!!

--
Q

If we ever declare war on China, we're screwed. They'll just refuse to
sell us
any munitions. :-)

When's the last time you found shoes or boots made in this country? Danner
Boot Co. still makes boots for SOME government agencies, but if the feds
stop supporting them and that business ends up in China, we're phucked. Who
needs ammo when your army hasn't got shoes? Perhaps we'll equip Army Rangers
with Nike or New Balance hoops shoes, assuming the country of origin hasn't
been conquered by some terrorist group. In that case, we should be able to
make our own flip-flops from recycled tires, and go to war dressed like the
Viet Cong.

"Gould 0738" wrote in message
...
The BLS links I provided at the bottom of that post certainly did. Did you
miss that?

I seldom follow links provided in a post unless the only message is "check this
link." Beyond that, I expect that most of the important facts have been
presented in the main body of the argument.
No, I didn't follow the link.


Put whatever spin you want on it but I stand by my previous statement and the
facts I
presented.



I don't think anybody is disputing your facts. Just the interpretation.


I see you use the disclaimer *recent* when looking at history. Interesting.

What happens tomorrow is probably going to be a whole lot more like what
happened last week or last year than what happened
50, 100, or 1000 years ago. Yeah.


Interesting. Too bad you cannot remain consistent though.

You see, when I asked you in another thread to post examples of how unions have
recently improved the lives of their members you lectured me with their great deeds in
the early to mid 20th century, entirely dismissing the importance of the *recent* past
(yesterday,

Now in this argument you dismiss the past and rely only on last year, tomorrow and
yesterday (the recent past).

Whatever works best for you at any given moment I guess. ;-)