Today's Discussion
Today's Discussion
POSTED: July 17, 2005 2:06 p.m.

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE, INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES,
THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. As of 1:00 p.m. CDT Sunday, Hurricane Emily was
centered at 19.0 north and 84.4 west, or about 195 miles east-southeast of
Cozumel, Mexico. This is also about 200 miles west of Grand Cayman. The
minimum central pressure was estimated at 948 millibars (27.99 inches).
Maximum sustained winds have dropped off to around 145 mph, with higher
gusts. Emily is moving off to the west-northwest at 20 mph. While there will
be some fluctuation in intensity as Emily approaches the Yucatan, the storm
will largely be in a favorable environment until landfall near Cozumel
tonight. Average surface pressures in the area remain low, and water
temperatures remain high. Worsening conditions are expected across the
Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon into early tonight as Emily approaches,
with bands of rain and winds increasing to hurricane strength, causing
damage. In addition, a destructive storm surge and large waves will impact
the Mexican coast into tonight, especially near and just north of the
location where Emily makes landfall. Emily will likely pose a threat to the
northern or central Mexican coast Tuesday of next week. The prospect of
Emily making a direct hit on south Texas still exists, although the best
chance seems to be south of Brownsville, in Mexico. A landfall north of the
Rio Grande River cannot be completely ruled out. Even as Emily moves across
the western Caribbean and Yucatan peninsula, the hurricane will generate
large swells in the Gulf of Mexico. Due to the severe erosion of beaches and
dune loss from recent storms, a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued through
Monday night from Dauphin Island, Alabama eastward to Destin, Florida. Tide
levels are expected to run up to 4 feet above normal and this could result
in some coastal flooding along the Alabama and northwest Florida coasts.
Some additional beach erosion can also occur along the beaches in Alabama
and the Florida panhandle. In addition, people venturing to area beaches
throughout the Gulf of Mexico should be on alert for an increased threat of
rip currents until Emily makes a final landfall. There are three tropical
waves in the Atlantic and all were moving west at around 20 mph. One was
along 28 west, south of 18 north, although much of the convection with this
wave has dissipated for the time being. A second wave was near 46 west,
south of 19 north. There is some cyclonic rotation with this wave. A third
wave was near 59 west, 20 north and was associated with some thunderstorm
activity; however, upper level winds are not favorable for further
development at this time.