Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning? That is a
high risk bet in anyone's mind. Remember the odds the bookmakers are giving
do not reflect anything except the way people are betting. Their objective
with the spread and odds, is to get 50% to bet one way and 50% to bet the
other way.

"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan Smithers" wrote in message
news:uishd.554848$8_6.215592@attbi_s04...

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...
If they're so much as even, then all of the polls that use weighting are
wrong...to the tune of
2-3 points. That's why I'm predicting Bush wins the popular vote by 4
points.

You might be correct, but no one in the business of projecting voter
turnout can accurately predict which candidate will do the best job of
getting out the vote. This election will result in a higher than average
voter turnout. Historically, high voter turnout has benefited the
democratic candidates, but it might change, but I think your prediction
is mostly based upon hope and not facts.

The Republican GOTV changed dramatically after the 2000 election......as
seen by the 2002 gain in house seats.....which bucked the trend of the
opposition party gaining seats.


I think the aggressive campaign to get young voters registered and have
them vote on Tuesday will have a major impact on the results. Again,
from what I have seen, this should benefit Kerry. Since the Repub. will
probably still control both houses of Congress, if Kerry wins he will
have to work with Congress on any get any bills through Congress.

"J. Smithers" wrote in message
news:Fvshd.449874$mD.384629@attbi_s02...
Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning? That is a
high risk bet in anyone's mind. Remember the odds the bookmakers are
giving do not reflect anything except the way people are betting. Their
objective with the spread and odds, is to get 50% to bet one way and 50%
to bet the other way.

To many variables, but to the point that NYOB was making, things have
changed since 2000, and the pollsters gauging things based on that election
are making mistakes.


"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan Smithers" wrote in message
news:uishd.554848$8_6.215592@attbi_s04...

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...
If they're so much as even, then all of the polls that use weighting
are wrong...to the tune of
2-3 points. That's why I'm predicting Bush wins the popular vote by 4
points.

You might be correct, but no one in the business of projecting voter
turnout can accurately predict which candidate will do the best job of
getting out the vote. This election will result in a higher than
average voter turnout. Historically, high voter turnout has benefited
the democratic candidates, but it might change, but I think your
prediction is mostly based upon hope and not facts.

The Republican GOTV changed dramatically after the 2000 election......as
seen by the 2002 gain in house seats.....which bucked the trend of the
opposition party gaining seats.


I think the aggressive campaign to get young voters registered and have
them vote on Tuesday will have a major impact on the results. Again,
from what I have seen, this should benefit Kerry. Since the Repub. will
probably still control both houses of Congress, if Kerry wins he will
have to work with Congress on any get any bills through Congress.

"NOYB" wrote in message
link.net...

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The poll used to project a state on www.electoral-vote.com is the
latest
poll based on the average of the range of dates on which the survey was
taken. He's very clear about that.

He's lying and you believed it. Check for yourself. The Mason-Dixon
poll
is more current than the Zogby poll, even when you average the range of
dates. Mason-Dixon has Bush up 4 in Florida, and up 1 in Minnesota
(it's
right there in the first table on his website). Your guy uses Zogby's
numbers for both states...thus giving both states to Kerry. What a
farce!


Last week Zogby was your favorite pollster. Silly boy.

No. I posted Zogby's numbers for you, Harry, since he seems to be the
only
pollster you'll believe. If that's the case, then your boy Kerry is in
trouble.
This election is about ebbs and flows for each campaign. Zogby uses a
3-day rolling average tracking poll. For today's poll, he's using data
from the 29th, 30th,
and 31st...and has dropped Thursday Oct. 28th's results off the average.
And guess what?
Bush actually gained from an uptick in his favor. That means Bush's
number have
been improving while Kerry's are dropping. By tomorrow morning, my
prediciton is
that Zogby will have Bush up 3...which is exactly what Rove is predicting.
I'm a little more
optimistic and think Bush will the popular vote by 4 points.

Listening to Zogby on the radio this morning, his partisanship was
showing......claiming things were trending to kerry, and it is obvious he is
counting on a the 'newly registered' to swing heavily for kerry.

My big question is how many of the 'newly registered' that were signed up by
paid collectors are (A) legitimate voters (B) will actually show up (C) vote
for kerry???





You're really putting too much of your cold heart into these last-minute
polls. The election is a dead heat. What matters Tuesday is voter
turnout.

Not really. I think Zogby's weighting is flawed, but his tracking polls
at least
show consistent trends in the polls. There is no doubt that Kerry had
better momentum
(at least relative to the week before) going into the weekend...but Bush
has better momentum
heading into eleciton day.



Got any links to real polls along the I-4 Corridor?

I don't know...and even if there were, I don't that that any any of the
locally-sponsored polls are worth a damn.
Most showed a statistical dead-heat between Jeb and McBride heading into
the 2002 election...and Jeb won by 13
points.

"J. Smithers" wrote in message
news:Fvshd.449874$mD.384629@attbi_s02...
Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning?

I'd bet a grand on Bush winning...as long as I could deduct it againt the
large tax hike that would be coming my way should Kerry win.

"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"J. Smithers" wrote in message
news:Fvshd.449874$mD.384629@attbi_s02...
Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning? That is
a high risk bet in anyone's mind. Remember the odds the bookmakers are
giving do not reflect anything except the way people are betting. Their
objective with the spread and odds, is to get 50% to bet one way and 50%
to bet the other way.

To many variables, but to the point that NYOB was making, things have
changed since 2000, and the pollsters gauging things based on that
election are making mistakes.

The pollsters should look at the trend from the 1996 election to the 2000
election, where the electorate grew more and more Republican...and then look
at the time from the 2000 until the 2002 election, where it became even
more so. That's why guys like Zogby were waaaaay off base with their 2002
predictions. They didn't take into account that there was a change in the
make-up of the electorate...and they're repeating that mistake once again.

"NOYB" wrote in message
link.net...

"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"J. Smithers" wrote in message
news:Fvshd.449874$mD.384629@attbi_s02...
Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning? That is
a high risk bet in anyone's mind. Remember the odds the bookmakers are
giving do not reflect anything except the way people are betting. Their
objective with the spread and odds, is to get 50% to bet one way and 50%
to bet the other way.

To many variables, but to the point that NYOB was making, things have
changed since 2000, and the pollsters gauging things based on that
election are making mistakes.

The pollsters should look at the trend from the 1996 election to the 2000
election, where the electorate grew more and more Republican...and then
look at the time from the 2000 until the 2002 election, where it became
even more so. That's why guys like Zogby were waaaaay off base with their
2002 predictions. They didn't take into account that there was a change
in the make-up of the electorate...and they're repeating that mistake once
again.

Another telling fact is where Kerry is campaigning.....he's in Mi.
today.....a state that was supposed to be a 'lock' of the dem's.....should
tell you something about the what the party 'internals' are saying. The
number so states Bush needs to hold from the 2000 election, vs the number
that kerry is trying to hold is another telling aspect......yes it could go
the other way, and the media is doing everything it can to spin it as
'close'

Where would this election be if it wasn't for the 15% media spin for
kerry???? That should tell everyone a lot about the future of the democratic
party.

"NOYB" wrote in message
...

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance, today's
Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by 4 points
and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does the
webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely on
Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major
polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses
*averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at
electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

It looks like the polling groups are 'assigning' undetermined voters to each
canidate according to who they think they are goinig to break for....I heard
one poll was as much as 9-1 in favor of kerry...................it is no
wonder there is such a wide swing in the polls..............

"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"NOYB" wrote in message
...

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral
College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance,
today's Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by 4
points and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does the
webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely on
Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major
polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses
*averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at
electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

It looks like the polling groups are 'assigning' undetermined voters to
each canidate according to who they think they are goinig to break
for....I heard one poll was as much as 9-1 in favor of
kerry...................it is no wonder there is such a wide swing in the
polls..............

Yes, Gallup took the undecideds and chose to divvy them up 9 to 1 in Kerry's
favor.

Pew split them up evenly. That's why Gallup shows a tie, and Pew shows Bush
up 3 points.

I guess it's safe to say that even in the worst case scenario, the polls are
tied...but in the more likely scenario, Bush is up 3 points. If undecideds
break to Bush, then Bush could be up as high as 4 or 5 points.

I'm hoping Strategic Vision is right:
Bush leads in FL (+4), OH (+2), WI (+2), IA (+3), MI (+1). He's tied in MN
and NJ. He trails in PA by 1 point.

That'd be a nightmare scenario for Kerry. Bush would have 313 electoral
votes to Kerry's 225. If NJ and MN went to Bush, he'd have 338 to Kerry's
200. If Hawaii went to Bush, he'd have 342 to 196.

I predict Bush will win FL, OH, WI, IA, and NM. PA, MI, MN, NJ, and HI will
go to Kerry.

Total predicted EC: 296 to 242 (not quite the 301 that I predicted earlier
because NH seems to have swung back to Kerry).



"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"NOYB" wrote in message
...

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral
College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance,
today's Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by 4
points and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does the
webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely on
Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major
polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses
*averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at
electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

It looks like the polling groups are 'assigning' undetermined voters to
each canidate according to who they think they are goinig to break
for....I heard one poll was as much as 9-1 in favor of
kerry...................it is no wonder there is such a wide swing in the
polls..............

"NOYB" wrote in message
link.net...
I'm hoping Strategic Vision is right:
Bush leads in FL (+4), OH (+2), WI (+2), IA (+3), MI (+1). He's tied in
MN and NJ. He trails in PA by 1 point.

That'd be a nightmare scenario for Kerry. Bush would have 313 electoral
votes to Kerry's 225. If NJ and MN went to Bush, he'd have 338 to Kerry's
200. If Hawaii went to Bush, he'd have 342 to 196.


Quinnipiac has Bush up by 8 in Fla, and tied in Pa.

Mich I think is a coin flip. The mayor of Detroit has done NOTHING wrt the
GOTV.....so a lot will depend on how much of a turnout Wayne Co. has.
Kerry pullout out of much of Mich way to early, and now has to spend time
here tonight.

Fla. looks pretty solid, and Oh. is moving more and more in the right
direction....as long as there is not too much ballot fraud in Cleveland.

Bush rally support has been strong with 20-30 k turn outs, while Kerry doing
about have that.


I predict Bush will win FL, OH, WI, IA, and NM. PA, MI, MN, NJ, and HI
will go to Kerry.

Total predicted EC: 296 to 242 (not quite the 301 that I predicted
earlier because NH seems to have swung back to Kerry).



"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"NOYB" wrote in message
...

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral
College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance,
today's Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by
4 points and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does
the webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based
solely on Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major
polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses
*averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at
electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

It looks like the polling groups are 'assigning' undetermined voters to
each canidate according to who they think they are goinig to break
for....I heard one poll was as much as 9-1 in favor of
kerry...................it is no wonder there is such a wide swing in the
polls..............