Reuters Poll: Bush Opens Four-Point Lead on Kerry

Fri Oct 15, 7:12 AM ET Politics - Reuters


By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) opened a four-point
lead on Democratic Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) the day after the final
debate between the White House rivals, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll
released on Friday.


Bush led Kerry 48-44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which
included one night of polling done after Wednesday's debate in Tempe, Arizona.
Bush led Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, by only one point, 46-45 percent,
the previous day.


An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from
his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise.


"The good news for the president is that he has improved his performance among
the small group of undecideds," said pollster John Zogby, who found 6 percent
of likely voters are undecided. "Nearly a quarter now say that he deserves to
be re-elected, up from 18 percent in our last poll."


Zogby said the difference between Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats
and Bush's 89 percent support from Republicans also should be "worrisome" for
Kerry in such a tight race.


"Kerry needs to close the deal with his fellow Democrats," Zogby said.


Both candidates headed to the swing state of Nevada in upbeat mood on Thursday
after their final debate and renewed their battle during separate appearances
in Las Vegas over who was best suited to lead the middle class to prosperity.


The focus of the race now turns to less than a dozen crucial battleground
states, with Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin and Iowa -- where Bush and Kerry are
running neck and neck -- all certain to see plenty of the candidates down the
stretch.


The new tracking poll found Bush pulling into a tie with Kerry among Catholics
and women voters, and moving slightly ahead with young voters. Kerry still
holds a solid lead among seniors.


The poll of 1,220 likely voters was taken Tuesday through Thursday and has a
margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will
continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.


A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling,
then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows
pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.


The poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader (news - web sites), blamed by
some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Al Gore (news - web sites) to cost
him the election in 2000, with the support of 1.1 percent of likely voters.