Thunder,

The debates are designed to sway those on the fence, and you are correct, if
Kerry looks presidential and strong in all 3 debates, and Bush looks as weak
and flustered as much as he did in the in this debate, it will probably help
Kerry gain the majority of the swing votes in the key states.

I sure hope Bush never says "It is a hard job" again, damn what the hell was
he trying to say with that line of crap.

Harry said something about Bush's talking points only lasted 20 min and I
would have to agree with him. Kerry seemed apprehensive in the first 10
min. and I thought Bush was doing a better job than Kerry, but after Bush
repeated the same lines 3 times it was all down hill from there. Kerry
might have said the same thing over and over again, but he said it
differently every time.

While the online surveys show Kerry ahead by 70% to 30%, but ABC's
scientific poll showed the following:

Among a random sample of 531 registered voters who watched the debate, 45
percent called Kerry the winner, 36 percent said it was Bush and 17 percent
called it a tie. It was a clean win for Kerry: Independents by a 20-point
margin said he prevailed.

Moreover, while 70 percent of Bush's supporters said Bush was the winner,
considerably more Kerry supporters - 89 percent - said their man won.


Who Won? (Among Debate Viewers)
Kerry 45%
Bush 36
Tie 17


As is customary, the debate did not immediately change many minds. Bush's
support was 50 percent among viewers before the debate, and 51 percent after
it; Kerry's, 46 percent before, 47 percent after. Ralph Nader had 1 percent
before and a tad less than that after.


Vote Preference Among Debate Viewers
Before the debate After the debate
Bush 50% 51
Kerry 46 47
Nader 1 0.5


This kind of outcome is typical in presidential debates, which tend to
reinforce viewers' preferences rather than change them. But the debates - an
essential window on the candidates' styles as well as their substance - can
affect the race more subtly as voters move toward their final judgments.

The results of this survey are not among all registered or likely voters;
instead they are among registered voters who watched the debate Thursday
night. They are, however, similar to the race overall, 51 percent to 45
percent among likely voters in an ABC News/Washington Post poll earlier this
week.

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/polit...ll_040930.html



"thunder" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 01 Oct 2004 12:35:20 +0000, Taco Heaven wrote:

Bush completely blew it, but according to CNN the polls do not show the
debate changed anyone's mind.

It's way too early to say but . . . for many, this was their first real
look at Kerry. It may take some time to sink in. If Kerry hadn't made a
good showing, he was done for. I'm not so sure the same can be said of
Bush. Reagan did very poorly in his first debate with Mondale, but
devastated him in the second. This race is far from over, but Kerry's
showing can not hurt him. On the other hand, another poor showing by Bush
and he may be Crawford bound.