Battlegrounds States Poll - August 2, 2004

Overview

John Kerry saw slightly stronger support among likely voters in 16
battleground states during the Democratic National Convention, according
to the latest Zogby Interactive poll. Mr. Kerry now leads in 13 states,
up from the 12 states he held a week ago, while President Bush leads in
three states.

The latest poll, conducted July 26-30, was conducted simultaneously with
the convention, though some voters were polled before Mr. Kerry's
acceptance speech. Mr. Kerry's slight post-convention boost is what
pollster John Zogby said he expected. Only a slim margin of voters is
undecided, he says, so the conventions aren't likely to cause major
swings of support. "The president will get a small bump but -- like
Kerry -- not a big one. There is just not enough give this year," Mr.
Zogby says.

The leads Messrs. Bush and Kerry hold in 11 of the 16 states are within
the margin of error, which varies between +/- 2.5 and +/- 4.4 percentage
points. Of the 13 states in which Mr. Kerry is in the lead, all but five
are within the margin of error. Mr. Bush's top spots, in three states
(Arkansas, Nevada and Ohio), are all within the margin of error. For
analysis of how this could play out in the Electoral College,
info-battleground04-an0726.html click here.

Presuming that all the states go to the current leading candidates and
that the other 34 states go as they did in the 2000 election, Mr. Bush
would get 220 votes in the Electoral College and Mr. Kerry would get
318. Excluding the 32 total electoral votes from four states considered
too close to call, Mr. Bush would get 215 votes and Mr. Kerry, 291.

Ralph Nader, who is fighting to get on state ballots as an independent
candidate, struggled in the latest poll. His best showing was 2.3% of
voters polled in New Hampshire, while the results from eight of the
remaining 15 states showed him at less than 1%. In July, he snagged 5.9%
of the voters polled in Nevada, and 4.4% in Arkansas. Over the weekend,
Mr. Nader made it onto his second state ballot, New Jersey (earlier,
he'd only qualified for Nevada), but he is having trouble in other key
states.

The polls were conducted by Zogby Interactive, a division of Zogby
International, which is conducting online polls twice a month through
Election Day in states selected with The Wall Street Journal Online.
Demographic information submitted by participants in the polls is
spot-checked to help prevent fraud, and the results are weighted to make
them representative of each state's overall voting population.

The margin of error varies from state to state depending on the number
of participants in each state. It ranges between +/- 2.5 and +/- 4.4
percentage points. Number of survey respondents: Arkansas, 503; Florida,
1,587; Iowa, 497; Michigan, 1,022; Minnesota, 652; Missouri, 949;
Nevada, 505; New Hampshire, 552; New Mexico, 494; Ohio, 1,571; Oregon,
644; Pennsylvania, 932; Tennessee, 821; Washington, 1,162; West
Virginia, 517; Wisconsin, 634.
--
"There's an old saying in Tennessee - I know it's in Texas, probably in
Tennessee - that says, fool me once, shame on - shame on you. Fool me -
you can't get fooled again." -George W. Bush, Nashville, Tenn., Sept.
17, 2002

I don't trust Zogby's polls. His brother is the founder and President of
the Arab American Institute...an organization which is very much opposed to
Bush's virtually unconditional support for Israel.

How much of a bounce did Kerry get according to the CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Poll?

NOYB wrote:

I don't trust Zogby's polls. His brother is the founder and President of
the Arab American Institute...an organization which is very much opposed to
Bush's virtually unconditional support for Israel.

Zogby is a Republican pollster. No one familiar with polling or
pollsters questions his integrity.



How much of a bounce did Kerry get according to the CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Poll?

Dunno. Didn't see that one. But the Republican sites that keep track of
polls regularly show Kerry ahead in the EC, and that is the race that
counts.

Remember, if Bush loses one significant state in 2004 and Kerry captures
the states Gore won, Bush is gone.

If it looks as if that is going to happen, we'll be on Code Red, and
Dick Cheney will be sitting in the bombardier's seat in a Stealth, ready
to drop a dirty nuke on some American city. Bet on it, the neocons are
not going to let go; they want their dumb-boy Bush in the Oval Office.

The elections in your state ought to be under world scrutiny; your
corrupt governor already has shown he's working hard to fix the results
this year.


--
"There's an old saying in Tennessee - I know it's in Texas, probably in
Tennessee - that says, fool me once, shame on - shame on you. Fool me -
you can't get fooled again." -George W. Bush, Nashville, Tenn., Sept.
17, 2002

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:

I don't trust Zogby's polls. His brother is the founder and President
of
the Arab American Institute...an organization which is very much opposed
to
Bush's virtually unconditional support for Israel.

Zogby is a Republican pollster.

You keep repeating that lie. Zogby is *not* a Republican pollster. If
anything, he has closer associations with the Democratic Party.


No one familiar with polling or
pollsters questions his integrity.

Really? You've asked every one of them?






How much of a bounce did Kerry get according to the CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Poll?

Dunno. Didn't see that one.

I did. Kerry led by 2 points before the Convention. Bush leads by 4 points
after it.


But the Republican sites that keep track of
polls regularly show Kerry ahead in the EC, and that is the race that
counts.

Those sites use last week's data...and some rely heavily on flawed polls
like the LA Times and Zogby interactive.


Remember, if Bush loses one significant state in 2004 and Kerry captures
the states Gore won, Bush is gone.

If it looks as if that is going to happen, we'll be on Code Red, and
Dick Cheney will be sitting in the bombardier's seat in a Stealth, ready
to drop a dirty nuke on some American city. Bet on it, the neocons are
not going to let go; they want their dumb-boy Bush in the Oval Office.


Cheney's heart couldn't withstand the G-forces.

"Gould 0738" wrote in message
...
Oh, looky here.

The overtly REPUBLICAN site that takes all the polls, combines the results
and
projects the winner has Bush slip slidin' away.

Let's all sing along:

Slip slidin away,
Slip slidin away,
The more you smear your opposition
The more you're slip slidin away......


From Election Projection.com:
Kerry 327 EV
Bush 211 EV



http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html


In 4 of the states which Kerry "leads", he has less than a 1 point lead:
Ohio 0.14%
Florida 0.45%
Nevada 0.47%
Missouri 0.88%

Those states have 63 electoral college votes and Bush won all 4 in 2000.
He'll win all 4 again.

Bush was leading 2 weeks ago, so what happened since then? Bush-friendly
polling data (Foxnews, WSJ, etc.) has been replaed with Kerry-friendly
polling data (Newsweek, ABC News, CBS, Washington Post, etc), because the
Kerry friendly polling data is "newer".
http://electionprojection.com/formula.html

That's it! There's no other significant difference. In two weeks, Bush
will lead by 30 or 40 EC votes again.

In article . net,
says...

"Gould 0738" wrote in message
...
Oh, looky here.

The overtly REPUBLICAN site that takes all the polls, combines the results
and
projects the winner has Bush slip slidin' away.

Let's all sing along:

Slip slidin away,
Slip slidin away,
The more you smear your opposition
The more you're slip slidin away......


From Election Projection.com:
Kerry 327 EV
Bush 211 EV



http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html


In 4 of the states which Kerry "leads", he has less than a 1 point lead:
Ohio 0.14%
Florida 0.45%
Nevada 0.47%
Missouri 0.88%

Those states have 63 electoral college votes and Bush won all 4 in 2000.
He'll win all 4 again.

Bush was leading 2 weeks ago, so what happened since then? Bush-friendly
polling data (Foxnews, WSJ, etc.) has been replaed with Kerry-friendly
polling data (Newsweek, ABC News, CBS, Washington Post, etc), because the
Kerry friendly polling data is "newer".
http://electionprojection.com/formula.html

That's it! There's no other significant difference. In two weeks, Bush
will lead by 30 or 40 EC votes again.

Wooohoooo!!! Here's one of the "nobby predictions" list!!!

Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaa!!!

"jps" wrote in message
...
In article . net,
says...

"Gould 0738" wrote in message
...
Oh, looky here.

The overtly REPUBLICAN site that takes all the polls, combines the
results
and
projects the winner has Bush slip slidin' away.

Let's all sing along:

Slip slidin away,
Slip slidin away,
The more you smear your opposition
The more you're slip slidin away......


From Election Projection.com:
Kerry 327 EV
Bush 211 EV



http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html


In 4 of the states which Kerry "leads", he has less than a 1 point lead:
Ohio 0.14%
Florida 0.45%
Nevada 0.47%
Missouri 0.88%

Those states have 63 electoral college votes and Bush won all 4 in 2000.
He'll win all 4 again.

Bush was leading 2 weeks ago, so what happened since then?
Bush-friendly
polling data (Foxnews, WSJ, etc.) has been replaed with Kerry-friendly
polling data (Newsweek, ABC News, CBS, Washington Post, etc), because
the
Kerry friendly polling data is "newer".
http://electionprojection.com/formula.html

That's it! There's no other significant difference. In two weeks, Bush
will lead by 30 or 40 EC votes again.

Wooohoooo!!! Here's one of the "nobby predictions" list!!!

Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaa!!!

Good. I'm glad you liked that. Just so you can archive it, here's the
prediction again:

Today is August 3rd. By August 17th, Bush will be leading on
electionprojection.com's EC tally by at least 30 to 40 EC votes.

"NOYB" wrote in message hlink.net...
"jps" wrote in message
...
In article . net,
says...

"Gould 0738" wrote in message
...
Oh, looky here.

The overtly REPUBLICAN site that takes all the polls, combines the
results
and
projects the winner has Bush slip slidin' away.

Let's all sing along:

Slip slidin away,
Slip slidin away,
The more you smear your opposition
The more you're slip slidin away......


From Election Projection.com:
Kerry 327 EV
Bush 211 EV



http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html


In 4 of the states which Kerry "leads", he has less than a 1 point lead:
Ohio 0.14%
Florida 0.45%
Nevada 0.47%
Missouri 0.88%

Those states have 63 electoral college votes and Bush won all 4 in 2000.
He'll win all 4 again.

Bush was leading 2 weeks ago, so what happened since then?
Bush-friendly
polling data (Foxnews, WSJ, etc.) has been replaed with Kerry-friendly
polling data (Newsweek, ABC News, CBS, Washington Post, etc), because
the
Kerry friendly polling data is "newer".
http://electionprojection.com/formula.html

That's it! There's no other significant difference. In two weeks, Bush
will lead by 30 or 40 EC votes again.

Wooohoooo!!! Here's one of the "nobby predictions" list!!!

Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaa!!!

Good. I'm glad you liked that. Just so you can archive it, here's the
prediction again:

Today is August 3rd. By August 17th, Bush will be leading on
electionprojection.com's EC tally by at least 30 to 40 EC votes.

Ah, the spin continues, your a good little marcher for the party!! You
didn't mention, in your previous prediction, that the tally had to be
from electionprojection.com.

"basskisser" wrote in message
om...
"NOYB" wrote in message
hlink.net...
"jps" wrote in message
...
In article . net,
says...

"Gould 0738" wrote in message
...
Oh, looky here.

The overtly REPUBLICAN site that takes all the polls, combines the
results
and
projects the winner has Bush slip slidin' away.

Let's all sing along:

Slip slidin away,
Slip slidin away,
The more you smear your opposition
The more you're slip slidin away......


From Election Projection.com:
Kerry 327 EV
Bush 211 EV



http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html


In 4 of the states which Kerry "leads", he has less than a 1 point
lead:
Ohio 0.14%
Florida 0.45%
Nevada 0.47%
Missouri 0.88%

Those states have 63 electoral college votes and Bush won all 4 in
2000.
He'll win all 4 again.

Bush was leading 2 weeks ago, so what happened since then?
Bush-friendly
polling data (Foxnews, WSJ, etc.) has been replaed with
Kerry-friendly
polling data (Newsweek, ABC News, CBS, Washington Post, etc),
because
the
Kerry friendly polling data is "newer".
http://electionprojection.com/formula.html

That's it! There's no other significant difference. In two weeks,
Bush
will lead by 30 or 40 EC votes again.

Wooohoooo!!! Here's one of the "nobby predictions" list!!!

Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaa!!!

Good. I'm glad you liked that. Just so you can archive it, here's the
prediction again:

Today is August 3rd. By August 17th, Bush will be leading on
electionprojection.com's EC tally by at least 30 to 40 EC votes.

Ah, the spin continues, your a good little marcher for the party!! You
didn't mention, in your previous prediction, that the tally had to be
from electionprojection.com.

I responded to Gould's post about electionprojection.com. Two weeks ago,
Bush led according to electionprojection.com. Currently, Kerry leads
according to electionprojection.com. I predicted that Bush will lead in EC
votes according to electionprojection.com by 30 to 40 votes by August 17th.
If you knew how to follow a thread, you'd have known that I was talking
about electionprojection.com's tally. What other EC tally would I have
been referring to?

"NOYB" wrote in message hlink.net...
"basskisser" wrote in message
om...
"NOYB" wrote in message
hlink.net...
"jps" wrote in message
...
In article . net,
says...

"Gould 0738" wrote in message
...
Oh, looky here.

The overtly REPUBLICAN site that takes all the polls, combines the
results
and
projects the winner has Bush slip slidin' away.

Let's all sing along:

Slip slidin away,
Slip slidin away,
The more you smear your opposition
The more you're slip slidin away......


From Election Projection.com:
Kerry 327 EV
Bush 211 EV



http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html


In 4 of the states which Kerry "leads", he has less than a 1 point
lead:
Ohio 0.14%
Florida 0.45%
Nevada 0.47%
Missouri 0.88%

Those states have 63 electoral college votes and Bush won all 4 in
2000.
He'll win all 4 again.

Bush was leading 2 weeks ago, so what happened since then?
Bush-friendly
polling data (Foxnews, WSJ, etc.) has been replaed with
Kerry-friendly
polling data (Newsweek, ABC News, CBS, Washington Post, etc),
because
the
Kerry friendly polling data is "newer".
http://electionprojection.com/formula.html

That's it! There's no other significant difference. In two weeks,
Bush
will lead by 30 or 40 EC votes again.

Wooohoooo!!! Here's one of the "nobby predictions" list!!!

Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaa!!!

Good. I'm glad you liked that. Just so you can archive it, here's the
prediction again:

Today is August 3rd. By August 17th, Bush will be leading on
electionprojection.com's EC tally by at least 30 to 40 EC votes.

Ah, the spin continues, your a good little marcher for the party!! You
didn't mention, in your previous prediction, that the tally had to be
from electionprojection.com.

I responded to Gould's post about electionprojection.com. Two weeks ago,
Bush led according to electionprojection.com. Currently, Kerry leads
according to electionprojection.com. I predicted that Bush will lead in EC
votes according to electionprojection.com by 30 to 40 votes by August 17th.
If you knew how to follow a thread, you'd have known that I was talking
about electionprojection.com's tally. What other EC tally would I have
been referring to?

God you're dumb. That is the whole ****ing point! You didn't MENTION a
specific EC tally when you originally made the prediction. Jeez.