Abbot Labs
 

Wow.

Abbot Labs has developed a super fast covid-19 test machine
that produces test results in 5 minutes.

They are shipping 50,000 of them a week.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

Abbot Labs
 

On 3/29/2020 5:47 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:

Wow.

Abbot Labs has developed a super fast covid-19 test machine
that produces test results in 5 minutes.

They are shipping 50,000 of them a week.



Whoops. Got that wrong. It's not 50K machines.

The machines they make use test kits that Abbot Labs makes.
The company will start shipping the test kits next week
and will be ramping up to 50K test kits a *day* (not a week).

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

Abbot Labs
 

Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/29/2020 5:47 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:

Wow.

Abbot Labs has developed a super fast covid-19 test machine
that produces test results in 5 minutes.

They are shipping 50,000 of them a week.



Whoops.Â* Got that wrong.Â* It's not 50K machines.

The machines they make use test kits that Abbot Labs makes.
The company will start shipping the test kits next week
and will be ramping up to 50K test kits a *day* (not a week).


That's still a big achievement!

Abbot Labs
 

On 3/30/2020 7:12 PM, Alex wrote:
Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/29/2020 5:47 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:

Wow.

Abbot Labs has developed a super fast covid-19 test machine
that produces test results in 5 minutes.

They are shipping 50,000 of them a week.



Whoops.Â* Got that wrong.Â* It's not 50K machines.

The machines they make use test kits that Abbot Labs makes.
The company will start shipping the test kits next week
and will be ramping up to 50K test kits a *day* (not a week).


That's still a big achievement!



Could be life saving.

Hey, I have a question. Been busy with stuff today and
haven't paid a lot of attention to the latest covid-19
stuff.

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

Right now there are about 750K reported confirmed
cases world wide and about 37K deaths. Again,
that's world-wide.

If her predictions of 100k-200k deaths in the USA
by itself and under the best of conditions ...
that is mind-blowing.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

Abbot Labs
 

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.


--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

Abbot Labs
 

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 01:00:17 -0400,
wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.

American Experience has a show about the 1918 flu that is running on
my PBS station as we speak.

Abbot Labs
 

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 01:00:17 -0400,
wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.

From the interweb

The estimated population of the United States on 1 July 1918 was some
103 million (Linder and Grove 1943), so approximately 0.5 percent of
the US population died as a result of the epidemic. Worldwide, the
death toll is generally put at 20 million.

Abbot Labs
 

On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.




A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.

I am not sure I buy the "models" the scientists use to make these
predictions. Seems like they apply current "data" to an algorithm
that is missing some components and may or may not be realistic.

A simple analogy:

Picture sitting in your car on a highway. From a stand-still
put the pedal to the metal and hold it there, never releasing it.

The car will soon reach a maximum rate of acceleration but as
speed increases the rate of acceleration declines until at
some point other factors prevent any further speed increase.

Using this analogy, sometimes I think the covid-19 experts who are using
data to create their models are like taking the peak acceleration rate
of the car and assuming that rate becomes a constant.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

Abbot Labs
 

On 3/31/20 8:11 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.




A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.

Too bad Americans have a total incompetent in the White House who in his
every briefing demonstrates how little he knows, how little he cares,
and whose only real concern is the fall election. MAGA. Trump had that
pillow moron speaking at the briefing yesterday...the con man pillow man.

Trump introduced pillowman Mike Lindell as 'my friend,' and had him
speak at the podium set up in the White House Rose Garden Monday, in an
event that centered on the push for hospital equipment. Lindell, a
religious crackpot and drug addict, also spoke at CPAC.

'Boy do you sell those pillows it’s unbelievable what you do,' Trump
said, putting in a plug for the product that is a fixture in TV
advertisements, including on Fox News.

Abbot Labs
 

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 08:11:25 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.




A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.

I am not sure I buy the "models" the scientists use to make these
predictions. Seems like they apply current "data" to an algorithm
that is missing some components and may or may not be realistic.

A simple analogy:

Picture sitting in your car on a highway. From a stand-still
put the pedal to the metal and hold it there, never releasing it.

The car will soon reach a maximum rate of acceleration but as
speed increases the rate of acceleration declines until at
some point other factors prevent any further speed increase.

Using this analogy, sometimes I think the covid-19 experts who are using
data to create their models are like taking the peak acceleration rate
of the car and assuming that rate becomes a constant.

Your flu numbers seem pretty low:

"This year's flu season is shaping up to be possibly less severe than the
2017-2018 season, when 61,000 deaths were linked to the virus. However, it could
equal or surpass the 2018-2019 season's 34,200 flu-related deaths."

https://www.health.com/condition/col...flu-every-year

I'm thinking the reverse, that the estimate of 100K-200K is the 'good behavior'
curve, and the 1M-2M number is the 'bad behavior' curve. The good folks seemed
kind of confusing with their numbers yesterday, but that's what I got out of it.
In other words, the 100K-200K number is the low end of the current curve, but
does not include any possible breakthroughs in treatment (cure?).
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

Abbot Labs
 

On 3/31/2020 8:19 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/31/20 8:11 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.




A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.



Too bad Americans have a total incompetent in the White House who in his
every briefing demonstrates how little he knows, how little he cares,
and whose only real concern is the fall election. MAGA. Trump had that
pillow moron speaking at the briefing yesterday...the con man pillow man.

Trump introduced pillowman Mike Lindell as 'my friend,' and had him
speak at the podium set up in the White House Rose Garden Monday, in an
event that centered on the push for hospital equipment. Lindell, a
religious crackpot and drug addict, also spoke at CPAC.

'Boy do you sell those pillows it’s unbelievable what you do,' Trump
said, putting in a plug for the product that is a fixture in TV
advertisements, including on Fox News.


Thanks a bunch for hijacking my post that was focused on how the
covid-19 models are generated and turning it into another of your
anti-Trump diarrhea moments. You snipped everything of importance.

I am putting you in quarantine ... i.e. the "Pig Pen" where you
can commiserate with the only other occupant, Nomen Nescio.

Sick of your bull**** and hope you get the help you obviously need.


--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

Abbot Labs
 

On 3/31/20 8:47 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/31/2020 8:19 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/31/20 8:11 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.




A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.



Too bad Americans have a total incompetent in the White House who in
his every briefing demonstrates how little he knows, how little he
cares, and whose only real concern is the fall election. MAGA. Trump
had that pillow moron speaking at the briefing yesterday...the con man
pillow man.

Trump introduced pillowman Mike Lindell as 'my friend,' and had him
speak at the podium set up in the White House Rose Garden Monday, in
an event that centered on the push for hospital equipment. Lindell, a
religious crackpot and drug addict, also spoke at CPAC.

'Boy do you sell those pillows it’s unbelievable what you do,' Trump
said, putting in a plug for the product that is a fixture in TV
advertisements, including on Fox News.


Thanks a bunch for hijacking my post that was focused on how the
covid-19 models are generated and turning it into another of your
anti-Trump diarrhea moments.Â* You snipped everything of importance.

I am putting you in quarantine ... i.e. the "Pig Pen" where you
can commiserate with the only other occupant, Nomen Nescio.

Sick of your bull**** and hope you get the help you obviously need.



I'm sorry my realistic comments about Trump and his team of asskissing
incompetents offends you.

And here's a bit of realism for you...No one and I mean no one can do
any more than guess at the number of COVOID-19 infected individuals we
end up with in this country or how many will die. There are just too
many factors to consider and the previous models, including what we know
about the 1918 pandemic, are not relevant.

Here's what matters:

Stay away from everyone.
Go out only when it is necessary and protect yourself.
Get the damned White House to force massive production of PPE, masks for
civilians, ventilators, and more research on a preventive vaccination
and meds to "cure it," and stop with the mindless daily briefings and
asskissing.
Ramp up the production of tests, and make them available for free to
everyone as many times as they need to test themselves.

Abbot Labs
 

On 3/31/2020 8:39 AM, John wrote:
On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 08:11:25 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.




A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.

I am not sure I buy the "models" the scientists use to make these
predictions. Seems like they apply current "data" to an algorithm
that is missing some components and may or may not be realistic.

A simple analogy:

Picture sitting in your car on a highway. From a stand-still
put the pedal to the metal and hold it there, never releasing it.

The car will soon reach a maximum rate of acceleration but as
speed increases the rate of acceleration declines until at
some point other factors prevent any further speed increase.

Using this analogy, sometimes I think the covid-19 experts who are using
data to create their models are like taking the peak acceleration rate
of the car and assuming that rate becomes a constant.

Your flu numbers seem pretty low:

"This year's flu season is shaping up to be possibly less severe than the
2017-2018 season, when 61,000 deaths were linked to the virus. However, it could
equal or surpass the 2018-2019 season's 34,200 flu-related deaths."

https://www.health.com/condition/col...flu-every-year

I'm thinking the reverse, that the estimate of 100K-200K is the 'good behavior'
curve, and the 1M-2M number is the 'bad behavior' curve. The good folks seemed
kind of confusing with their numbers yesterday, but that's what I got out of it.
In other words, the 100K-200K number is the low end of the current curve, but
does not include any possible breakthroughs in treatment (cure?).

Yes, the 100K - 200k covid-19 deaths *is* Dr. Birx's most recent "best
case" estimate ... if everyone cooperates "perfectly".

Her worst case was up to 2.3 million deaths if people do nothing.

I don't understand how their "models" can identify that number.
Why stop at 2.3 million? Why not everyone? If the model is
accurate, there has to be another factor that limits it to 2.3 million.

My point was that earlier in this pandemic the estimates were much lower
and "experts" were pointing out that more people would likely die from
the seasonal flu than from covid-19. That has obviously changed.

It could be that it is an attempt to wake people up and emphasize the
need to follow the CDC recommendations to limit travel, practice
social distance, wash your hands, etc.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

Abbot Labs
 

On 3/31/2020 8:54 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/31/20 8:47 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/31/2020 8:19 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/31/20 8:11 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.




A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.



Too bad Americans have a total incompetent in the White House who in
his every briefing demonstrates how little he knows, how little he
cares, and whose only real concern is the fall election. MAGA. Trump
had that pillow moron speaking at the briefing yesterday...the con
man pillow man.

Trump introduced pillowman Mike Lindell as 'my friend,' and had him
speak at the podium set up in the White House Rose Garden Monday, in
an event that centered on the push for hospital equipment. Lindell, a
religious crackpot and drug addict, also spoke at CPAC.

'Boy do you sell those pillows it’s unbelievable what you do,' Trump
said, putting in a plug for the product that is a fixture in TV
advertisements, including on Fox News.


Thanks a bunch for hijacking my post that was focused on how the
covid-19 models are generated and turning it into another of your
anti-Trump diarrhea moments.Â* You snipped everything of importance.

I am putting you in quarantine ... i.e. the "Pig Pen" where you
can commiserate with the only other occupant, Nomen Nescio.

Sick of your bull**** and hope you get the help you obviously need.



In case you didn't notice, Luddite has you in his bozo bin. Your verbal
diarrhea finally got to him. I will be happy to inform him of anything
of merit that I think he might want to hear from you. I will perform
this service free of charge to you.

--
Pity Fat Harry. His ability to produce rational thought on his own, no
longer exists, if it ever did at all.

Abbot Labs
 

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 12:57:48 AM UTC-5, wrote:
On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 01:00:17 -0400,
wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.

From the interweb

The estimated population of the United States on 1 July 1918 was some
103 million (Linder and Grove 1943), so approximately 0.5 percent of
the US population died as a result of the epidemic. Worldwide, the
death toll is generally put at 20 million.

Interesting that Stalin was estimated to put away about that same amount of his own countrymen.

Abbot Labs
 

Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/31/2020 8:19 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/31/20 8:11 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.




A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.



Too bad Americans have a total incompetent in the White House who in
his every briefing demonstrates how little he knows, how little he
cares, and whose only real concern is the fall election. MAGA. Trump
had that pillow moron speaking at the briefing yesterday...the con
man pillow man.

Trump introduced pillowman Mike Lindell as 'my friend,' and had him
speak at the podium set up in the White House Rose Garden Monday, in
an event that centered on the push for hospital equipment. Lindell, a
religious crackpot and drug addict, also spoke at CPAC.

'Boy do you sell those pillows it’s unbelievable what you do,' Trump
said, putting in a plug for the product that is a fixture in TV
advertisements, including on Fox News.


Thanks a bunch for hijacking my post that was focused on how the
covid-19 models are generated and turning it into another of your
anti-Trump diarrhea moments.Â* You snipped everything of importance.

I am putting you in quarantine ... i.e. the "Pig Pen" where you
can commiserate with the only other occupant, Nomen Nescio.

Sick of your bull**** and hope you get the help you obviously need.



It's time to change your name, too.Â* You are honoring him with "Mr.
Luddite".

Abbot Labs
 

Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/31/2020 8:39 AM, John wrote:
On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 08:11:25 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.




A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.

I am not sure I buy the "models" the scientists use to make these
predictions. Seems like they apply current "data" to an algorithm
that is missing some components and may or may not be realistic.

A simple analogy:

Picture sitting in your car on a highway. From a stand-still
put the pedal to the metal and hold it there, never releasing it.

The car will soon reach a maximum rate of acceleration but as
speed increases the rate of acceleration declines until at
some point other factors prevent any further speed increase.

Using this analogy, sometimes I think the covid-19 experts who are
using
data to create their models are like taking the peak acceleration rate
of the car and assuming that rate becomes a constant.

Your flu numbers seem pretty low:

"This year's flu season is shaping up to be possibly less severe than
the
2017-2018 season, when 61,000 deaths were linked to the virus.
However, it could
equal or surpass the 2018-2019 season's 34,200 flu-related deaths."

https://www.health.com/condition/col...flu-every-year


I'm thinking the reverse, that the estimate of 100K-200K is the 'good
behavior'
curve, and the 1M-2M number is the 'bad behavior' curve. The good
folks seemed
kind of confusing with their numbers yesterday, but that's what I got
out of it.
In other words, the 100K-200K number is the low end of the current
curve, but
does not include any possible breakthroughs in treatment (cure?).

Yes, the 100K - 200k covid-19 deaths *is* Dr. Birx's most recent "best
case" estimate ... if everyone cooperates "perfectly".

Her worst case was up to 2.3 million deaths if people do nothing.

I don't understand how their "models" can identify that number.
Why stop at 2.3 million?Â* Why not everyone?Â* If the model is
accurate, there has to be another factor that limits it to 2.3 million.

My point was that earlier in this pandemic the estimates were much lower
and "experts" were pointing out that more people would likely die from
the seasonal flu than from covid-19. That has obviously changed.

It could be that it is an attempt to wake people up and emphasize the
need to follow the CDC recommendations to limit travel, practice
social distance, wash your hands, etc.


Many have survived and are, as many suggest, immune from the virus - for
now.

Abbot Labs
 

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 19:48:45 -0400, Alex wrote:

Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/31/2020 8:39 AM, John wrote:
On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 08:11:25 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.




A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.

I am not sure I buy the "models" the scientists use to make these
predictions. Seems like they apply current "data" to an algorithm
that is missing some components and may or may not be realistic.

A simple analogy:

Picture sitting in your car on a highway. From a stand-still
put the pedal to the metal and hold it there, never releasing it.

The car will soon reach a maximum rate of acceleration but as
speed increases the rate of acceleration declines until at
some point other factors prevent any further speed increase.

Using this analogy, sometimes I think the covid-19 experts who are
using
data to create their models are like taking the peak acceleration rate
of the car and assuming that rate becomes a constant.

Your flu numbers seem pretty low:

"This year's flu season is shaping up to be possibly less severe than
the
2017-2018 season, when 61,000 deaths were linked to the virus.
However, it could
equal or surpass the 2018-2019 season's 34,200 flu-related deaths."

https://www.health.com/condition/col...flu-every-year


I'm thinking the reverse, that the estimate of 100K-200K is the 'good
behavior'
curve, and the 1M-2M number is the 'bad behavior' curve. The good
folks seemed
kind of confusing with their numbers yesterday, but that's what I got
out of it.
In other words, the 100K-200K number is the low end of the current
curve, but
does not include any possible breakthroughs in treatment (cure?).

Yes, the 100K - 200k covid-19 deaths *is* Dr. Birx's most recent "best
case" estimate ... if everyone cooperates "perfectly".

Her worst case was up to 2.3 million deaths if people do nothing.

I don't understand how their "models" can identify that number.
Why stop at 2.3 million?Â* Why not everyone?Â* If the model is
accurate, there has to be another factor that limits it to 2.3 million.

My point was that earlier in this pandemic the estimates were much lower
and "experts" were pointing out that more people would likely die from
the seasonal flu than from covid-19. That has obviously changed.

It could be that it is an attempt to wake people up and emphasize the
need to follow the CDC recommendations to limit travel, practice
social distance, wash your hands, etc.


Many have survived and are, as many suggest, immune from the virus - for
now.

That may be the plan all along. Let the youngsters go out there and
get it. Hopefully most just think they have a cold, a few might be in
trouble but they were going be trouble when they get it anyway. Once
the people who go out, can go out, the economy can start up again.
Dunno but it isn't a horrible plan, just don't let them kiss granny
(or be in the same house) until you know they had it and got over it.
For us old farts, lockdown isn't that big a deal. I don't go anywhere
anyway. I just pay more attention to what I shove in a hole in my head
with a dirty hand.
I just pretend I am rebuilding a developer and watch where I put my
hands.