Bank of America's top U.S. economist on Thursday warned that the country is
now in a recession in a note to investors.

CNBC reported that Michelle Meyer wrote in a letter to the company's
clients that the U.S. economy is in a "deep plunge" brought on by the
global coronavirus outbreak, which has sickened thousands across the
country and more than 200,000 globally.

“We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession
.... joining the rest of the world, and it is a deep plunge,� Meyer
reportedly wrote. “

On 3/19/2020 1:07 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:


Bank of America's top U.S. economist on Thursday warned that the country is
now in a recession in a note to investors.

CNBC reported that Michelle Meyer wrote in a letter to the company's
clients that the U.S. economy is in a "deep plunge" brought on by the
global coronavirus outbreak, which has sickened thousands across the
country and more than 200,000 globally.

“We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession
... joining the rest of the world, and it is a deep plunge,� Meyer
reportedly wrote. “




Not by the classic definition of a recession but still true.


What is weird though is that a recession is always marked by
a decline in spending by consumers due to economic uncertainty
and rising unemployment.

The situation we are in right now is not the result of the
above. It was brought on suddenly and without warning for
a reason that had nothing to do with economic uncertainty.

People would spend if they could but nothing is open.



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https://www.avg.com

Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/19/2020 1:07 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:


Bank of America's top U.S. economist on Thursday warned that the country is
now in a recession in a note to investors.

CNBC reported that Michelle Meyer wrote in a letter to the company's
clients that the U.S. economy is in a "deep plunge" brought on by the
global coronavirus outbreak, which has sickened thousands across the
country and more than 200,000 globally.

“We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession
... joining the rest of the world, and it is a deep plunge,� Meyer
reportedly wrote. “




Not by the classic definition of a recession but still true.


What is weird though is that a recession is always marked by
a decline in spending by consumers due to economic uncertainty
and rising unemployment.

The situation we are in right now is not the result of the
above. It was brought on suddenly and without warning for
a reason that had nothing to do with economic uncertainty.

People would spend if they could but nothing is open.




Our local chain grocery stores are about 60% stocked with plenty of fruits
and veggies, no paper products, some meats, not much frozen food. We are
avoiding other retail outlets.

On 3/19/2020 1:30 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/19/2020 1:07 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:


Bank of America's top U.S. economist on Thursday warned that the country is
now in a recession in a note to investors.

CNBC reported that Michelle Meyer wrote in a letter to the company's
clients that the U.S. economy is in a "deep plunge" brought on by the
global coronavirus outbreak, which has sickened thousands across the
country and more than 200,000 globally.

“We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession
... joining the rest of the world, and it is a deep plunge,� Meyer
reportedly wrote. “




Not by the classic definition of a recession but still true.


What is weird though is that a recession is always marked by
a decline in spending by consumers due to economic uncertainty
and rising unemployment.

The situation we are in right now is not the result of the
above. It was brought on suddenly and without warning for
a reason that had nothing to do with economic uncertainty.

People would spend if they could but nothing is open.




Our local chain grocery stores are about 60% stocked with plenty of fruits
and veggies, no paper products, some meats, not much frozen food. We are
avoiding other retail outlets.


Yeah, one thing I noticed this morning at our local supermarket
during "senior" hour. The frozen food freezers were pretty much empty.

We have a farmer's market type place here called "Quintels" that
specializes in fresh fruits, veggies, etc., along with some
chicken and turkey at times.

They have started a delivery service to your home. You call them,
place an order for what you want from their website, put it on
a credit card and the next day they deliver it. Delivery fee is
$5.00 but is waived right now if you are a senior. My wife placed
an order yesterday and it will arrive today.




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On Thu, 19 Mar 2020 13:19:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/19/2020 1:07 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:


Bank of America's top U.S. economist on Thursday warned that the country is
now in a recession in a note to investors.

CNBC reported that Michelle Meyer wrote in a letter to the company's
clients that the U.S. economy is in a "deep plunge" brought on by the
global coronavirus outbreak, which has sickened thousands across the
country and more than 200,000 globally.

“We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession
... joining the rest of the world, and it is a deep plunge,� Meyer
reportedly wrote. “




Not by the classic definition of a recession but still true.


What is weird though is that a recession is always marked by
a decline in spending by consumers due to economic uncertainty
and rising unemployment.

The situation we are in right now is not the result of the
above. It was brought on suddenly and without warning for
a reason that had nothing to do with economic uncertainty.

People would spend if they could but nothing is open.

I think once they actually get a chance to roll up the unemployment
numbers, nobody will question whether this is a recession or not.
Those numbers lag reality by a few weeks since it is based on people
filing for unemployment benefits, being approved, then the
bureaucratic inertia to get those numbers out.
Our folks are really just getting laid off here but the prognosis for
coming back is slim. Effectively season is over here, a month to a
month and a half early. In a season that only lasts 4 months, that is
a big hit to their income. I bet a lot of small businesses will not
survive the summer.

On 3/19/2020 5:06 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 19 Mar 2020 13:19:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/19/2020 1:07 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:


Bank of America's top U.S. economist on Thursday warned that the country is
now in a recession in a note to investors.

CNBC reported that Michelle Meyer wrote in a letter to the company's
clients that the U.S. economy is in a "deep plunge" brought on by the
global coronavirus outbreak, which has sickened thousands across the
country and more than 200,000 globally.

“We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession
... joining the rest of the world, and it is a deep plunge,� Meyer
reportedly wrote. “




Not by the classic definition of a recession but still true.


What is weird though is that a recession is always marked by
a decline in spending by consumers due to economic uncertainty
and rising unemployment.

The situation we are in right now is not the result of the
above. It was brought on suddenly and without warning for
a reason that had nothing to do with economic uncertainty.

People would spend if they could but nothing is open.

I think once they actually get a chance to roll up the unemployment
numbers, nobody will question whether this is a recession or not.
Those numbers lag reality by a few weeks since it is based on people
filing for unemployment benefits, being approved, then the
bureaucratic inertia to get those numbers out.
Our folks are really just getting laid off here but the prognosis for
coming back is slim. Effectively season is over here, a month to a
month and a half early. In a season that only lasts 4 months, that is
a big hit to their income. I bet a lot of small businesses will not
survive the summer.



A month ago construction was booming everywhere. This virus thing
shut it down like someone standing on the brakes. That is not
typical of a general economic slowdown.

You make it sound like a recession starts every year in Florida
in terms of the construction trades.



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On Thu, 19 Mar 2020 19:09:58 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/19/2020 5:06 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 19 Mar 2020 13:19:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/19/2020 1:07 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:


Bank of America's top U.S. economist on Thursday warned that the country is
now in a recession in a note to investors.

CNBC reported that Michelle Meyer wrote in a letter to the company's
clients that the U.S. economy is in a "deep plunge" brought on by the
global coronavirus outbreak, which has sickened thousands across the
country and more than 200,000 globally.

“We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession
... joining the rest of the world, and it is a deep plunge,� Meyer
reportedly wrote. “




Not by the classic definition of a recession but still true.


What is weird though is that a recession is always marked by
a decline in spending by consumers due to economic uncertainty
and rising unemployment.

The situation we are in right now is not the result of the
above. It was brought on suddenly and without warning for
a reason that had nothing to do with economic uncertainty.

People would spend if they could but nothing is open.

I think once they actually get a chance to roll up the unemployment
numbers, nobody will question whether this is a recession or not.
Those numbers lag reality by a few weeks since it is based on people
filing for unemployment benefits, being approved, then the
bureaucratic inertia to get those numbers out.
Our folks are really just getting laid off here but the prognosis for
coming back is slim. Effectively season is over here, a month to a
month and a half early. In a season that only lasts 4 months, that is
a big hit to their income. I bet a lot of small businesses will not
survive the summer.



A month ago construction was booming everywhere. This virus thing
shut it down like someone standing on the brakes. That is not
typical of a general economic slowdown.

You make it sound like a recession starts every year in Florida
in terms of the construction trades.

Not really in construction but certainly in server world. Typically
there are a lot of them who will follow the snowbirds north around the
end of April and into May and work up there for the summer. We ran
into a waitress we know in Naples, working in Fairbanks AK. A lot of
the people at my wife's club had gigs they worked up north in the
summer. This shutdown caught them at the time where they were saving
up for the move and now they are not even certain there will be a job
up there if they could get there.