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Mr. Luddite[_4_]

On 3/19/2020 5:06 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 19 Mar 2020 13:19:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/19/2020 1:07 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:

Bank of America's top U.S. economist on Thursday warned that the country is
now in a recession in a note to investors.

CNBC reported that Michelle Meyer wrote in a letter to the company's
clients that the U.S. economy is in a "deep plunge" brought on by the
global coronavirus outbreak, which has sickened thousands across the
country and more than 200,000 globally.

“We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession
... joining the rest of the world, and it is a deep plunge,” Meyer
reportedly wrote. “

Not by the classic definition of a recession but still true.

What is weird though is that a recession is always marked by
a decline in spending by consumers due to economic uncertainty
and rising unemployment.

The situation we are in right now is not the result of the
above. It was brought on suddenly and without warning for
a reason that had nothing to do with economic uncertainty.

People would spend if they could but nothing is open.

I think once they actually get a chance to roll up the unemployment
numbers, nobody will question whether this is a recession or not.
Those numbers lag reality by a few weeks since it is based on people
filing for unemployment benefits, being approved, then the
bureaucratic inertia to get those numbers out.
Our folks are really just getting laid off here but the prognosis for
coming back is slim. Effectively season is over here, a month to a
month and a half early. In a season that only lasts 4 months, that is
a big hit to their income. I bet a lot of small businesses will not
survive the summer.

A month ago construction was booming everywhere. This virus thing
shut it down like someone standing on the brakes. That is not
typical of a general economic slowdown.

You make it sound like a recession starts every year in Florida
in terms of the construction trades.

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