On 28/07/2011 7:05 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 27 Jul 2011 20:22:48 -0600,
wrote:

or http://tinyurl.com/3kqdb4o

Well, if the pattern persists and it should, gold should go to at least
$3500 before it peeks.

Gold is not an investment it is a trade.

Agreed.

You buy it when we have a recession and sell it when you see a real
change in how the economy s going.
In the 70s that $100 gold ended up peaking shortly after Reagan was
elected at almost $700. The next time was when we had the Reagan
recession and gold was $300 and crested around $600 when the recession
broke.

Yep. There is a time to sell it. But I don't think we are near that
point. Even if DC comes in with a deal, does not mean your out of the
woods. Bernanke prints so much money that inflation when it comes will
be mean. Part of why the economy is stalling in fact is because
inflation is hitting, but the elasticity to pass on the costs isn't
there. So as businesses make less, they employ fewer people.

But inflation as to the buying public, they see it once recovery starts
in earnest and have more elasticity in wages. Until wages or taxes go
down, the people are tapped out.

Shortages could start to occur any time.

This time the "buy" was when the economy was growing around 2001,
again around $300. I am not sure where the top is but it will
certainly be after the US gets a handle on its unemployment problems
and corrals the debt. I fear we will be waiting for western Europe
too.
$3500 may be a bit high but $2000 is likely and $2500 not
unreasonable.
The strange thing is the gold bugs seem to know the housing boom was
not real. Look at the gold chart for the 2000s.

Much of how high gold goes will be a function on how long Bernanke keeps
printing money in the ruse of US treasury borrowing. The more
borrowing, the more the money print, the more inflation will drive gold.
If money print actually stops, gold could see a top and fall back a bit.

I have some silver coin at 5x face but not the pickup truck load I
should have bought

Ditto, I have 18 one ounce coin pieces in a safety deposit box. Bought
a Canadian Silver Mint batch. Took two home, bought them when I met my
lovely wife and that is why 2 are at home. Hard to believe how much
that has appreciated. Have some gold too but no clue how much they
weight in at.

--
Obama, enslaving Americans with debt-tax slavery for a spending binge.
Doesn't even borrow real money, Bernanke just creates it like a
counterfeiter. .