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Wayne B

On Fri, 06 May 2011 16:47:19 -0400, wrote:

The open question is how much of his is real market forces and how
much is just speculation. The speculation part can swing fairly wildly
but the market component is going to be fairly predictable.
We can't ignore the number of cars the Chinese and the Indians are
putting on the road every year.

Speculation (buying inventory forward) is largely limited by storage
capacity. Once the tank farms approach full capacity, storage rates
start going up and it becomes increasingly expensive and risky. Same
thing with the threat of rising interest rates or increased margin
requirements. The real story is that the Saudi oil fields are pumping
at close to max capacity even though they will not publicly admit it.
The fun will start when it becomes obvious to everyone that the Saudis
can no longer pick up the pace to meet demand peaks,

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On Fri, 06 May 2011 17:56:36 -0400, Wayne B
wrote:

On Fri, 06 May 2011 16:47:19 -0400, wrote:

The open question is how much of his is real market forces and how
much is just speculation. The speculation part can swing fairly wildly
but the market component is going to be fairly predictable.
We can't ignore the number of cars the Chinese and the Indians are
putting on the road every year.

Speculation (buying inventory forward) is largely limited by storage
capacity. Once the tank farms approach full capacity, storage rates
start going up and it becomes increasingly expensive and risky. Same
thing with the threat of rising interest rates or increased margin
requirements. The real story is that the Saudi oil fields are pumping
at close to max capacity even though they will not publicly admit it.
The fun will start when it becomes obvious to everyone that the Saudis
can no longer pick up the pace to meet demand peaks,

It's a good argument for fuel efficiency and as many alternatives to
oil as we can find.

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