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Harry Krause
 
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Default Isabel regains strength 160-195 mph winds

As predicted, Hurricane Isabel has regained her strength.

From Accuweather:

Hurricane Isabel has strengthened again Saturday afternoon. As of 5 PM
EDT Saturday, the center of Isabel was located near 22.6 north and 62.6
west, or about 375 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The maximum
sustained winds have increased again to 160 mph with gusts to 195 mph,
back to a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Isabel is moving to the west at around 12 mph, and this general track
should expected to continue for the next 24 hours. An eyewall
replacement cycle took place this morning, which caused the winds to
increase this afternoon. The forecasting of weakening and strengthening
of an intense hurricane is very difficult, as the eyewall replacement
cycles that govern the intensity of such storms are hard to predict. It
is probable that Isabel will remain a category five hurricane for the
next 12 hours or so, before beginning another eyewall replacement cycle
that would result in temporary weakening. The current path will take
Isabel north of the Leeward Islands and well north of Puerto Rico
overnight. The hurricane should be north of the Dominican Republic by
early Monday. On Tuesday, we expect it located east of the Bahamas. The
main synoptic features that will play a role in the track of Isabel are
the Western Atlantic high pressure ridge now nosing into New England and
an upper-level trough that will approach the eastern U.S. late in the
weekend and early next week. A weakening of the Western Atlantic ridge
in the next couple of days will cause the hurricane to move on a
west-northwest and even northwest track. If the ridge does not weaken,
the storm will probably track farther south. Either way, Isabel is still
several days away from affecting the U.S. mainland. The area of low
pressure from the remnants of Tropical Storm Henri is still moving
slowly northward through the mid-Atlantic Saturday with some rain and
thunder. This feature was unable to get re-organized into a tropical
system. Rough surf will continue through Saturday night but the winds
have come down and will continue to do so as the system becomes weaker
and more disorganized. A tropical wave is located along 92 west, south
of 20 north Saturday. This system is causing showers and thunderstorms
to fire up in the southern Bay of Campeche. Some of this moisture will
be drawn northward into Deep South Texas on Sunday as a front moves into
that area. In the eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave is located along 43
west, south of 20 north. Weak surface winds make this feature very hard
to find. Another tropical wave is positioned over the Cape Verde Islands
along 25 west and south of 18 north with scattered convection.




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Steven Shelikoff
 
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Default Isabel regains strength 160-195 mph winds

On Sat, 13 Sep 2003 18:30:09 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote:

As predicted, Hurricane Isabel has regained her strength.


The forcast track seems to be moving further south. Good news for me,
bad news for someone else.

Here's where I've been following it's track:
http://hurricane.terrapin.com/

Below are some links available from the site.

Current forcast track is at:
http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-13A/ftrack.html

and current probability plot is at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/AL1303P.GIF

Steve
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