Isabel regains strength 160-195 mph winds
 

As predicted, Hurricane Isabel has regained her strength.

From Accuweather:

Hurricane Isabel has strengthened again Saturday afternoon. As of 5 PM
EDT Saturday, the center of Isabel was located near 22.6 north and 62.6
west, or about 375 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The maximum
sustained winds have increased again to 160 mph with gusts to 195 mph,
back to a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Isabel is moving to the west at around 12 mph, and this general track
should expected to continue for the next 24 hours. An eyewall
replacement cycle took place this morning, which caused the winds to
increase this afternoon. The forecasting of weakening and strengthening
of an intense hurricane is very difficult, as the eyewall replacement
cycles that govern the intensity of such storms are hard to predict. It
is probable that Isabel will remain a category five hurricane for the
next 12 hours or so, before beginning another eyewall replacement cycle
that would result in temporary weakening. The current path will take
Isabel north of the Leeward Islands and well north of Puerto Rico
overnight. The hurricane should be north of the Dominican Republic by
early Monday. On Tuesday, we expect it located east of the Bahamas. The
main synoptic features that will play a role in the track of Isabel are
the Western Atlantic high pressure ridge now nosing into New England and
an upper-level trough that will approach the eastern U.S. late in the
weekend and early next week. A weakening of the Western Atlantic ridge
in the next couple of days will cause the hurricane to move on a
west-northwest and even northwest track. If the ridge does not weaken,
the storm will probably track farther south. Either way, Isabel is still
several days away from affecting the U.S. mainland. The area of low
pressure from the remnants of Tropical Storm Henri is still moving
slowly northward through the mid-Atlantic Saturday with some rain and
thunder. This feature was unable to get re-organized into a tropical
system. Rough surf will continue through Saturday night but the winds
have come down and will continue to do so as the system becomes weaker
and more disorganized. A tropical wave is located along 92 west, south
of 20 north Saturday. This system is causing showers and thunderstorms
to fire up in the southern Bay of Campeche. Some of this moisture will
be drawn northward into Deep South Texas on Sunday as a front moves into
that area. In the eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave is located along 43
west, south of 20 north. Weak surface winds make this feature very hard
to find. Another tropical wave is positioned over the Cape Verde Islands
along 25 west and south of 18 north with scattered convection.




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Isabel regains strength 160-195 mph winds
 

Correction, misread the data on my last.

NHC 120 hour projection at 14/0300Z has an eye location of N36.5 W75, or
about 50 miles offshore near Elizabeth City.

Isabel regains strength 160-195 mph winds
 

On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 03:34:53 GMT, "John Gaquin"
wrote:
NHC 120 hour projection at 14/0300Z has an eye location of N36.5 W75, or
about 50 miles offshore near Elizabeth City.
==================
Most models show it going up Chesapeake Bay late in the week.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/im...0313_model.gif

The navy wave height forecast is interesting:

http://152.80.49.210/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

Here's the latest from Accuweather, 5:00AM Sunday:

Hurricane Isabel, a powerful category five storm on the Saffir-Simpson
scale, continues to churn westward across the tropical Atlantic
Sunday. As of 5 a.m., the center of Isabel was located near latitude
23.3 north and longitude 65.2 west, centering the storm about 340
miles to the north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The maximum sustained
winds are near 160 mph with higher wind gusts of around 195 mph
possible. Isabel is moving to the west-northwest at 13 mph, and this
movement should continue for at least the next 12 to 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles to the north of
the storm. The storm may make a gradual turn to the northwest and slow
in its forward speed beyond 24 hours as it nears the eastern coast of
the United States. The storm may also lose some of its intensity
beyond 24 hours as it enters a less favorable wind sheared environment
near the southeastern U.S. However, for now, Hurricane Isabel
continues to benefit from a ventilating outflow as the upper levels
all around the storm allow it to maintain its current strength. On its
current path, the hurricane should pass north of Hispaniola on Sunday,
and by Tuesday Isabel, may be located east of the Bahamas. The two
main synoptic features that will play a key role in the track of
Isabel are an upper-level high pressure ridge over the western
Atlantic, which is now nosing into New England, and an upper-level
trough that will approach the eastern U.S. early next week. A
weakening of the Western Atlantic ridge may cause the hurricane to
turn more northwest. If the ridge does not weaken, the storm will
likely to continue on its west-northwest course. The longer Isabel
tracks west before turning to the north, the greater the chance that
the hurricane will significantly impact interests along the East Coast
of the U.S. Either way, Isabel is still several days away from
affecting the U.S. mainland. The current forecast track for Isabel
takes the storm near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and then up the
Chesapeake Bay late in the week. However, all of the residents of the
East Coast should keep abreast of the latest information concerning
this very powerful hurricane.

Isabel regains strength 160-195 mph winds
 

On Sat, 13 Sep 2003 18:30:09 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote:

As predicted, Hurricane Isabel has regained her strength.

The forcast track seems to be moving further south. Good news for me,
bad news for someone else.

Here's where I've been following it's track:
http://hurricane.terrapin.com/

Below are some links available from the site.

Current forcast track is at:
http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-13A/ftrack.html

and current probability plot is at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/AL1303P.GIF

Steve

Isabel regains strength 160-195 mph winds
 

"Jim -" wrote in message news:Gks9b.466957
The models vary and are nothing but intelligent guesses.

Pick a path, any path:

Actually, four of the five are all in a path just 200 miles wide. That's
quite narrow for a projection 3 days out.

JG