Poll: Most don't know who speaks for GOP
By Susan Page, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — Republicans, out of power and divided over how to get it
back, are finding even the most basic questions hard to answer.

Here's one: Who speaks for the GOP?

The question flummoxes most Americans, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds,
which is among the reasons for the party's sagging state and uncertain
direction.

A 52% majority of those surveyed couldn't come up with a name when asked
to specify "the main person" who speaks for Republicans today. Of those
who could, the top response was radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh
(13%), followed in order by former vice president Dick Cheney, Arizona
Sen. John McCain and former House speaker Newt Gingrich. Former
president George W. Bush ranked fifth, at 3%.

So the dominant faces of the Republican Party are all men, all white,
all conservative and all old enough to join AARP, ranging in age from 58
(Limbaugh) to 72 (McCain). (snerk nothing but old farts)

They include some of the country's most strident voices on issues from
Sonia Sotomayor's nomination to the Supreme Court to President Obama's
policies at home and abroad. Two are retired from politics, and one has
never been a candidate.

Only McCain holds elective office, and his age and status as the loser
of last year's presidential election make him an unlikely standard
bearer for the party's future.

"It's a problem," says Douglas Holtz-Eakin, an adviser to McCain's 2008
presidential campaign who this month is filing the papers to create a
think tank aimed at generating new ideas for conservatives. "We need the
perceived leadership of the party to be those who are the future."

"We cannot be a party of balding white guys," says former Republican
Party national chairman Ed Gillespie, a White House counselor for George
W. Bush. "We have to have a broader appeal, but there's time for us to
make that change."

Republicans have seen an erosion of support across almost all
demographic groups — the steepest decline since World War II, even
bigger than in the aftermath of the Watergate scandal in the 1970s.
Since 2004, Republicans have gone from a 3 percentage point advantage in
party identification over Democrats in USA TODAY polls to a 7 point
disadvantage.

In that time, the GOP has lost control of the White House, the House of
Representatives and the Senate. It is struggling to forge a united
response to the popular new Democratic president. The result has been to
give Obama "an extension" to his political honeymoon, Democratic
pollster Stan Greenberg says.

No surprise, then, that a debate rages over what to do next.

The annual Congressional Republican fundraising dinner Monday prompted
weeks of political drama over who would deliver the keynote address.
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's name was announced, but when questions arose
over her schedule Gingrich was tapped. Then a last-minute kerfuffle
developed over whether Palin, McCain's running mate, would attend after all.

In the end, she showed up at the Washington Convention Center, walked
across the stage and waved but didn't speak. He delivered an hour-long,
policy-laden address that castigated Obama for having "already failed"
on the economy and called for a "majority Republican Party" that would
tolerate disparate views.

In recent days, the party's divisions over Sotomayor have played out in
public.

At one end of the spectrum, Limbaugh labeled the appellate judge a
racist and Gingrich said she should be forced to withdraw, although he
later backed away from his harshest words. At the other, Sen. Olympia
Snowe, R-Maine, praised the nominee's judicial philosophy and defended
Sotomayor's temperament after meeting with her last week.

"We're undergoing, obviously, an identity problem, both in terms of the
issues and what we represent as Republicans, what the Republican brand
is all about," Snowe says. One of the few moderate Republicans left in
the Senate — their ranks shrank when Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania
switched to the Democrats — she worries her party has "lost its way."

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, who declined to
be interviewed about the GOP's future, has been caught in the crossfire
between Limbaugh and others. (In the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, only 1% said
Steele spoke for the GOP.)

USA TODAY asked whether Republicans, to succeed, should either do a
better job arguing for conservative views or change positions on some
issues to appeal to moderates — an ongoing debate within the party.
Cheney sparked headlines last month when he said on CBS' Face the Nation
that he would rather have a GOP defined by the conservative Limbaugh
than the moderate former secretary of State, Colin Powell.

A majority of those surveyed said the party should make changes to draw
moderates. Among Republicans, however, nearly two-thirds said the party
would be better off by holding a conservative line and advocating it
more effectively — as Limbaugh advocates.

"They're disorganized, they don't have a leader, and they're trying to
be too moderate," Kim Lowe, 43, of Charlotte, says. The conservative
stay-at-home mom and interior designer, who was among those surveyed,
predicts that a message of fiscal responsibility ultimately will prevail
with voters.

"I believe they'll come back once America sees what Obama is doing," she
says.

'Politics is self-correcting'

Political fortunes are cyclical, of course. Republicans were crushed in
Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide but regained the White House four years
later amid turmoil over civil rights and the Vietnam War. In the 1980s,
Democratic liberals and centrists faced off, sometimes bitterly, over
welfare, crime and other issues until Bill Clinton won the presidency in
1992.

"When you have a party out of power, especially after you've lost an
election, it's not surprising there would be many voices competing to
speak," says Frank Donatelli, who was political director in the Reagan
White House and helped run the Republican National Committee for the
McCain campaign last year.

Republican opportunities will come in response to Democratic excesses,
Donatelli says: "Politics is self-correcting."

In time, the GOP will be defined and led by its presidential nominee, he
says. Several prospects are laying the groundwork for potential runs in
2012.

Last week, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty announced he wouldn't seek a
third term, stoking speculation that he is interested in the White
House. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, Mississippi Gov. Haley
Barbour, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and Gingrich have been
making appearances in key primary states.

Republican candidates also are competitive in this year's two
gubernatorial races, in New Jersey and Virginia, for seats now held by
Democrats. Winning either would help Republicans argue they are making a
comeback.

Still, some see the GOP's immediate plight as perilous.

"We're in the basement of a 100-story building," says Ed Rollins, a
Republican strategist who advised the presidential campaigns of Ronald
Reagan in 1984, independent Ross Perot in 1992 and Huckabee in 2008.

Rollins says next year's congressional and state legislative elections
are crucial. If Republicans don't make significant gains in the House,
he says, the redrawing of congressional district lines after the 2010
Census could lock in Democratic advantages for a decade.

Then there are the demographics of the GOP's decline.

From Bush's inauguration in 2001 to Obama's inauguration in 2009,
Republicans lost significant support among nearly every major
demographic group, according to a Gallup analysis — among men and women,
Americans at all income levels, residents of every region and those ages
18-64.

The losses were particularly steep among those under 30, the rising
Millennial generation. Support for the GOP among college graduates fell
by about 10 percentage points. Surveys of voters as they left polling
places also showed a significant decline among Hispanics, the nation's
fastest-growing ethnic group.

Republicans maintained support among seniors, conservatives and frequent
churchgoers.

To win elections, Gillespie says, the party needs to make more inroads
among the rapidly expanding parts of the population. "I was not a math
major, but I know that getting an increasing share of a decreasing
percentage of the overall vote is not a good thing," he says. "That's
what we're doing now."

"The world has changed, and they cannot be staying in the same place
where they've been for the last 200 years," says Erika Quinteros, 63, an
independent from suburban Philadelphia who was called in the survey. The
retired doctor sometimes votes for Republicans — she liked former
Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge— but says the current GOP seems "too
radical" for her.

In the poll, 34% had a favorable impression of the Republican Party,
matching the lowest level in more than a decade. In comparison, 53% had
a favorable impression of the Democratic Party.

Dissatisfaction with the GOP extends to within its own ranks. Among
Republicans, 33% had an unfavorable impression of their own party. In
contrast, 4% of Democrats had an unfavorable impression of their party.

The GOP's electoral setbacks, policy divisions and image problems make
it harder for the party to influence the national debate.

"It's as if the Republican Party is in a time-out chair," says Charlie
Cook, editor and publisher of the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
"Nobody's really listening to them. Nobody's caring what they think. The
question is when they're asked to rejoin the class, are they going to
have something new or different to say?"

"I don't think people know what they stand for," says Troy Collett, 39,
a Republican from Shelbyville, Ind., who was surveyed. In the 2008
election, he says, "all they knew was there was a war in Iraq that most
people disagreed with, and spending was out of control, and gas prices
were high."

A GOP 'wilderness'

Asked by Gallup "what comes to mind when you think of the Republican
Party," 25% said "unfavorable" and another 1 in 4 offered negative
assessments including "no direction," "close-minded" and "poor economic
conditions." Sixteen percent said "conservative" and 7% "favorable."

For the Democratic Party, the most dominant impression was "liberal,"
mentioned by 15%. One in 3 used positive phrases such as "for the
people" and "socially conscious." The most prevalent negative judgments
saw the Democrats as "big spending" (8%) and "self-centered" (4%).

The survey of 1,015 adults, taken by land line and cellphone May 29-31,
has a margin of error of +/– 3 percentage points.

Like the Democrats or not, there was a broad consensus about who speaks
for the party. Obama was named by 58%. He was followed by 11% who cited
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and 3% who cited Secretary of State Hillary
Rodham Clinton. Twenty-one percent couldn't come up with a name.

And Obama's popularity — 67% had a favorable opinion of him — is
boosting his party. Even the 14-year-old daughter of Rollins, the
Republican strategist, has put up posters of the president in her bedroom.

Some analysts say a stumble by the president and the Democrat-controlled
Congress would give Republicans their best opportunity to recover.

"Republicans are counting on the Obama administration to disintegrate,
to disappoint, very rapidly and very spectacularly, and a big popular
movement of unhappiness with the administration to coalesce," says David
Frum, a speechwriter in the Bush White House.

Frum, who says the party hasn't yet come to terms with its problems, has
launched a website called newmajority.com to encourage a debate.

"There's a lot of time and nothing wrong with the Republican Party that
health care reform or the cap-and-trade (energy plan) or something like
that blowing up wouldn't help fix," Cook says.

At the moment, though, "Republicans are going through a wilderness
period, and it may take a while to come out of it."
--
The modern GOP is little more than an army of moral absolutists led by a
gang of moral nihilists.