On Sun, 7 Jun 2009 22:51:45 -0700, "Calif Bill"
wrote:


"jps" wrote in message
.. .

Think this would have happened if Bush were still in office or the
Republicans would have retained the White House?

Not a freakin' chance...

American-Backed Alliance Appears to Win in Lebanon
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN

BEIRUT, Lebanon - An American-backed alliance appeared to retain
control of the Lebanese Parliament on Sunday in a hotly contested
election that had been billed as a showdown between Tehran and
Washington for influence in the Middle East.

Preliminary results reported on Lebanese television showed the
alliance, known as the March 14 coalition, had managed to preserve its
majority in Parliament. If those results are confirmed, they would
represent a significant and unexpected defeat for Hezbollah and its
allies, Iran and Syria. Most polls had showed a tight race, but one in
which the Hezbollah-led group would win.

The tentative victory may have been aided by nearly unprecedented
turnout. The preliminary results showed that about 55 percent of the
3.26 million registered voters cast ballots. Lebanese television
reported that the March 14 coalition, a predominantly Sunni, Christian
and Druze alliance, held at least 67 seats out of 128 in Parliament.

Though the Hezbollah-led challengers appeared to lose, Hezbollah
itself - a Shiite political, social and military organization that is
officially regarded by the United States and Israel as a terrorist
group - will continue to be one of Lebanon's most powerful political
forces. The biggest disappointment may well have been Michel Aoun, a
retired general who appeared to preserve his bloc of seats but left
the Christian constituency divided.

The interest in the contest was so high that during the day, people
waited up to four hours to vote, many, including the elderly and the
infirm, standing in the hot sun and in packed hallways.

Thousands of troops fanned out across this small, fractured nation to
keep the peace and stayed in the streets into the night as the results
came in. Despite big crowds at polling places, though, there were few
reports of disturbances, Lebanese and election monitoring officials
said.

"There is the fate of the country this time," said Mireille Fiani, 45,
as she stood crushed up against a crowd inside a school to cast her
vote.

The majority party in Parliament gets to build the next government and
set the direction of national policy. Had the opposition won, for
example, there was the expectation that Lebanon would not cooperate
with the international tribunal set up to investigate the
assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former premier.

Initially it was expected to be a very close race, with political
analysts saying that as few as seven seats might have decided the
outcome of the contest. Even with the majority expanding its base by a
few seats, there was likely still the need, analysts said, to bring
the opposition into a national unity government. Lebanon remains a
divided and polarized nation that needs stability if for no other
reason than to deal with its foreign debt of $50 billion.

Official results were expected on Monday at noon here.

Three groups of election monitors have been deployed, including former
President Carter's organization. But even before the race began, it
was marred by charges of unprecedented vote buying. In the most
contested districts, there were reports of votes being bought for as
much as $2,000, and thousands of expatriates received all-expense-paid
trips to Lebanon to vote.

In one district, an ambulance brought hospital patients to the polls
to cast ballots.

Lebanon has long been seen as a proxy battlefield for regional and
global interests, and so foreign powers from Washington to Tehran have
paid close attention. But its politics are also intensely local, with
power divided among sect leaders who jealously guard their interests.

On one side is the March 14 coalition, which holds the majority bloc
and is led by the Sunni Muslim Future Movement of Saad Hariri, whose
father's assassination in 2005 led to huge protests that forced Syria
to withdraw its troops from Lebanon.

On the other side is the March 8 coalition, whose two main members are
Hezbollah and the Christian party of Mr. Aoun, the Free Patriotic
Movement.

If Hezbollah's alliance had emerged victorious, it would have
represented another step in the evolution of a once parochial Shiite
militia that started as a guerrilla force fighting Israeli occupation
of the south into a national institution that slowly has defined the
identity of the state.

Hezbollah has said that it would work to build what it called a
"culture of resistance," and define the enemy of Lebanon as Israel and
the United States. It also said it would make it a high priority to
build a strong national military.

Instead, it is the March 14 group that appears to find itself having
won greater legitimacy. When Mr. Hariri's alliance first won in 2005,
it did so as part of an alliance with Hezbollah. The two camps broke
ties shortly after the election and for years since Hezbollah said
that March 14 would not have had the majority if not for its help, and
therefore represented an illegitimate government.

Having won in opposition to Hezbollah would add a boost to the bloc's
legitimacy, political analysts said.

Mr. Aoun, on the other hand, walks away with less than when he entered
the race. The Sunni and Shiite communities are largely united behind
their respective parties. Mr. Aoun gambled that he would be able to
bring the majority of Christian voters with him into the alliance with
Hezbollah, and appears to have been rejected by his intended
constituents.

That division was played out on Sunday in the election district known
as Beirut One, where early results showed that General Aoun's
candidates lost. Soldiers in armored personnel carriers were stationed
in the middle of Sassine Square as troops patrolled the sidewalks.

Joseph Khoury, 47, was overseeing an election office for the Lebanese
Forces, a former militia turned political organization that is aligned
with March 14. He said that victory was essential to preserve
Lebanon's independence. "We don't want Iran to occupy Lebanon," he
said, relying on what has been described as a scare tactic to drum up
votes.

Tony Badr, 22, a Lebanese Forces supporter, said that he was
"disappointed" that "a large Christian party has aligned with Syria
and Iran and their agents," Hezbollah.

But down the road, Christian supporters of Mr. Aoun said that the
alliance with Mr. Hariri and his Saudi-backed March 14 group was more
dangerous to Christians. "What am I going to tell you, Hezbollah is a
party defending Lebanon," said George Anid. "The Shia have simple
hearts like us and they will protect us."

Hwaida Saad contributed reporting.


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/08/wo...n.html?_r=1&hp

Obama had zero to do with the victory. It was the Lebanese who have been
shattered by the Hezbollah who see no good to come with a Hezbollah led
government. Until they opened the doors to Hezbollah, Lebanon was the
Geneva of the Middle east.

I'm sure your analysis is far better than a trained journalist in the
subject who works for a nation paper of record.

Excuse me!

I suppose you think the timing of Obama's trip was just coincidental
with an election where Hezbollah control hung in the balance.

Simple soul you are.