Flying Pig Float Plan
 

Geoff Schultz wrote:
If you're coastal US, then I would believe that the localized coastal
forecasts should be fairly accurate.

Sure. Often, they're so vague or describe such a wide range of
probably conditions that they're not useful, but they're usually quite
accurate.

On Jul 29, 6:38 am, wrote:
And you would be wrong, at least in my part of the coastal US. Very wrong.

I bet the problem is that you don't know how to read (or listen) to a
weather forecast.

I've kept a weather log as part of my general sailing & cruising for
decades. This includes a decade of trailer-cruising, and trailering
racing one-design class boats all over the eastern US... occasionally
out West.

Back in the 1970s, NOAA weather was about 75% accurate in all the
areas I sailed. Since then, they've improved to about 90%. On our
recent Great Loop, the weather forecasts were actually better than
that.

Often, they aren't very useful... "50% chance of thunderstorms" for
example. "Winds 5 to 15 knots" for another.

But the real problem is that people expect the weatherman to be able
to lead them by the hand and tell them exactly what to expect. Sorry,
nobody can do that. But private services who invest a lot in making
you feel good can give a better result in terms of confidence.

Fresh Breezes (50% chance of)- Doug King

Flying Pig Float Plan
 

On Jul 29, 7:59*am, wrote:
...
Often, they aren't very useful... "50% chance of thunderstorms" for
example. "Winds 5 to 15 knots" for another.

I would say that both of those statements are VERY useful, as long as
they are correct. One tells me that I might get wet and the other
that I can probably sail, without needing a reef.

Todd

Flying Pig Float Plan
 

wrote:
So, genius, how much of the great loop goes through the Long Island
Sound?


And Saltie/BB's inner soul speaks out.... bitter, lost, a failure,
envious of those who have actually gone places & done things...

How much of my post did you actually read & grasp? About the same as
the weather reports you insist are so inaccurate?

Got any one-design racing in LIS? Think anybody who has spent a couple
decades traveling the eastern US racing sailboats might have been
there once or twice?

Tell you what, log a couple of years of these "inaccurate weather
reports" tally the predictions and the actual conditions, and get back
to us.

As some others have said, it takes a bit of knowledge to interpret
reported weather data, and you have to PAY ATTENTION to predictions
since they often (usually, in fact) change over time. If you like the
Accu-Weather people to hold your hand and tell you that when Mickey's
big hand is on the three, then the wind will shift to the southeast,
then I'm glad they are there to provide that service for you.

Fresh Breezes- Doug King

Flying Pig Float Plan
 

...
Often, they aren't very useful... "50% chance of thunderstorms" for
example. "Winds 5 to 15 knots" for another.

wrote:
I would say that both of those statements are VERY useful, as long as
they are correct. One tells me that I might get wet and the other
that I can probably sail, without needing a reef.


Fair enough. If you can sail in 15 knots without needing to reef, you
might find 5 knots of wind rather boring though ;)

The "50% chance of thunderstorms" is a joke. There's a 100% chance of
thunderstomrs... the question is, will one hit right where you happen
to be at the moment? And will it be a summer afternoon flash-bang or a
70-knot howler with golf-ball sized hail? I see this a key point!

wrote:
Doug does his boating safely indoors, and he doesn't have sails, just
an ignition key.


Nice to know that being an embittered ex-stalker hasn't changed the
fact that you don't know WTF you're talking about, Saltie/BB.

http://downloads.c-2.com/photos/1210001286.jpg

DSK

Flying Pig Float Plan
 

wrote in message
...
http://downloads.c-2.com/photos/1210001286.jpg

DSK


Doug.. nice pic. Is that the one right before the one where you're swept off
the boat by the swinging boom? I heard it was a two-fer, since you got a
picture from both the person taking this one and the guy in the boat taking
one at just the right moment. Just kidding... LOL!

Is this your new boat?

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

Flying Pig Float Plan
 

http://downloads.c-2.com/photos/1210001286.jpg


"Capt. JG" wrote:
Doug.. nice pic.

Thanks, it's from a race, too.... well, a few minutes before the
start ;)


... Is that the one right before the one where you're swept off
the boat by the swinging boom? I heard it was a two-fer, since you got a
picture from both the person taking this one and the guy in the boat taking
one at just the right moment. Just kidding... LOL!


That incident was greatly exaggerated. Actually I wasn't swept off the
boat at all, I managed to hold on to the swinging boom with one hand,
continued to steer by dragging my feet in the water, doused the
spinnaker with my free hand then brought the boat to a close-hauled
course and stepped back aboard. We passed three of the other boats in
the race, and also caught a fish, during this maneuver. There is no
truth to the rumor that anybody went overboard, much less Angelina
Jolie, during that race. I wish people would stop repeating &
spreading these outlandish tales about what happens on my boat....

Is this your new boat?


It's a 1981 but it's new to me! Been a lot of fun so far!

DSK

Flying Pig Float Plan
 

wrote in message
...
http://downloads.c-2.com/photos/1210001286.jpg


"Capt. JG" wrote:
Doug.. nice pic.

Thanks, it's from a race, too.... well, a few minutes before the
start ;)


... Is that the one right before the one where you're swept off
the boat by the swinging boom? I heard it was a two-fer, since you got a
picture from both the person taking this one and the guy in the boat
taking
one at just the right moment. Just kidding... LOL!


That incident was greatly exaggerated. Actually I wasn't swept off the
boat at all, I managed to hold on to the swinging boom with one hand,
continued to steer by dragging my feet in the water, doused the
spinnaker with my free hand then brought the boat to a close-hauled
course and stepped back aboard. We passed three of the other boats in
the race, and also caught a fish, during this maneuver. There is no
truth to the rumor that anybody went overboard, much less Angelina
Jolie, during that race. I wish people would stop repeating &
spreading these outlandish tales about what happens on my boat....

The set up for the fish catching part was great.

Angelina only goes overboard when it comes to adopting kids from Africa.

Is this your new boat?


It's a 1981 but it's new to me! Been a lot of fun so far!

DSK

Looks great!
--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

Flying Pig Float Plan
 

On Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:41:11 -0700 (PDT), wrote:


That incident was greatly exaggerated. Actually I wasn't swept off the
boat at all, I managed to hold on to the swinging boom with one hand,
continued to steer by dragging my feet in the water, doused the
spinnaker with my free hand then brought the boat to a close-hauled
course and stepped back aboard.

Yes, but were you also trimming the main sheet with your teeth ?

Flying Pig Float Plan
 

"Wayne.B" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:41:11 -0700 (PDT), wrote:


That incident was greatly exaggerated. Actually I wasn't swept off the
boat at all, I managed to hold on to the swinging boom with one hand,
continued to steer by dragging my feet in the water, doused the
spinnaker with my free hand then brought the boat to a close-hauled
course and stepped back aboard.

Yes, but were you also trimming the main sheet with your teeth ?



Well, duhhh....

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

Flying Pig Float Plan
 

On 2008-07-29 11:53:04 -0400, said:

Fair enough. If you can sail in 15 knots without needing to reef, you
might find 5 knots of wind rather boring though ;)

Depends on the boat. We had forecasts for 5-15 Sunday and got them all
at some point or another. Reefed for a few, but it's no big deal for us.

The "50% chance of thunderstorms" is a joke. There's a 100% chance of
thunderstomrs... the question is, will one hit right where you happen
to be at the moment? And will it be a summer afternoon flash-bang or a
70-knot howler with golf-ball sized hail? I see this a key point!

THAT takes local knowledge and interpretation. Around here, if they add
"afternoon" to that, they'll be summer squalls over about 50% of the
area. When it's *not* just squalls, they'll split up the AM and PM
forecasts. Below 20%, they're covering their butt. Between 20-40, we
can probably sail around the isolated clouds. 60 or higher, and we'll
at best be able to scoot quickly between cells. 80+ and we'll likely
hunker down.

Problem with forecasts, particularly where we are, is that the weather
above Pooles Island can differ from below. We had that happen Sunday.
Were on the Bush and scooted just ahead of a black cloud to the north
coming south. We got some good winds and a light drizzle, our friends
on the Sassafras (about 5 nm away) got PLASTERED.

4th of July weekend, we had a couple-hour monsoon at Fairlee (eastern
shore). Our friends on the Gunpowder River (western shore) didn't get a
drop.

All this in a 5-nm radius from Pooles Island.

--
Jere Lull
Xan-à-Deux -- Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD
Xan's pages: http://web.mac.com/jerelull/iWeb/Xan/
Our BVI trips & tips: http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/