BoatBanter.com

BoatBanter.com (https://www.boatbanter.com/)
-   Cruising (https://www.boatbanter.com/cruising/)
-   -   Flying Pig Float Plan (https://www.boatbanter.com/cruising/96501-flying-pig-float-plan.html)

Skip Gundlach July 28th 08 03:02 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 

Flying Pig Float Plan


Our current plan is to depart on the falling tide on Monday, July
28 afternoon. Our best forecasts of currents and winds at this
time are for us to go directly East from St. Mary's River to the
Gulf Stream, taking advantage of the offshore currents to get us
there, rather than angling north to take the longer leg of the
triangle. We anticipate picking up the Gulf Stream early
Tuesday. Current in that area can be viewed he
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy.../145/0-0-17/16

Once in the Gulf Stream, weather and currents allowing, we'll
stay in it through approximately 38-00N/70-00W, about halfway
between Cape Charles and Cape May's latitude, then turn from its
eastward bend to Northeast, approaching Cape Cod. Current in
that area can be viewed he
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy.../145/0-0-17/24

At approximately 40-37N and 69-00W, we'll turn north, to go
through the Great South Channel off Cape Cod, and once clear of
the shoal areas, turn slightly northwest to go to Portland.
Depending on what time we arrive, the currents could be very
favorable or heavily against us. You can see those he
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy.../145/0-0-17/32

We intend daily reports via sailmail, as well as having our SPOT
(http://share.findmespot.com/shared/f...PLcZGvSb3 nMe)
on continuously during our passage. We'll also send "OK"
messages via Spot on a daily basis.

At this time weather, wind and currents all look very good for
our passage, but in the event that changes, or there are
equipment difficulties which suggest otherwise, we'll not
hesitate to come in from wherever we are at the time.

See our log listings for the daily reports...

L8R

Skip and Lydia (and Portia, of course!)


Morgan 461 #2
SV Flying Pig KI4MPC
See our galleries at www.justpickone.org/skip/gallery !
Follow us at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TheFlyingPigLog
and/or http://groups.google.com/group/flyingpiglog

"You are never given a wish without also being given the power
to make it come true. You may have to work for it however."
(and)
"There is no such thing as a problem without a gift for you in
its hands. You seek problems because you need their gifts."
(Richard Bach, in The Reluctant Messiah)



[email protected] July 28th 08 04:27 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On Jul 28, 7:02*am, "Skip Gundlach" wrote:
...
At this time weather, wind and currents all look very good for
our passage, but in the event that changes, or there are
equipment difficulties which suggest otherwise, we'll not
hesitate to come in from wherever we are at the time.

...

IMO, this is the best part of the plan. I'm a big fan of the Navy and
NOAA wx products, but having used them for years I don't expect them
to be correct. I know they are digital and look lovely, but remember
that the NOAA guys look at all of these same models and more and have
years of experience and still mess up the forecast as often as not.
At sea the forecasts are __much less reliable__ than they are near
shore or on land. So, I suggest looking at the sky, the barometer,
the thermometer and the sea and if they don't agree with what the
computer or your router say then the router and models are wrong! The
models often change radically run to run so if it isn't working to
plan get the newest run. Also, remember that the meso scale models
piggy back on the GFS; if the GFS is wrong, so are they. So, it is a
good idea to do your macro scale checking against a different model
family (eg. NOGAPS) and, if you can, an IR sat picture.

-- Tom.

GeoffSchultz July 28th 08 04:34 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On Jul 28, 11:27*am, " wrote:
On Jul 28, 7:02*am, "Skip Gundlach" wrote:
... At this time weather, wind and currents all look very good for
our passage, but in the event that changes, or there are
equipment difficulties which suggest otherwise, we'll not
hesitate to come in from wherever we are at the time.


...

IMO, this is the best part of the plan. *I'm a big fan of the Navy and
NOAA wx products, but having used them for years I don't expect them
to be correct. *I know they are digital and look lovely, but remember
that the NOAA guys look at all of these same models and more and have
years of experience and still mess up the forecast as often as not.
At sea the forecasts are __much less reliable__ than they are near
shore or on land. *So, I suggest looking at the sky, the barometer,
the thermometer and the sea and if they don't agree with what the
computer or your router say then the router and models are wrong! *The
models often change radically run to run so if it isn't working to
plan get the newest run. *Also, remember that the meso scale models
piggy back on the GFS; if the GFS is wrong, so are they. So, it is a
good idea to do your macro scale checking against a different model
family (eg. NOGAPS) and, if you can, an IR sat picture.

-- Tom.


I find exactly the opposite to be true. The NOAA forecasts are much
more reliable off shore than they are on-shore where land effects can
significantly modify the wind patterns. I believe that they even
state that the forecasts are for 12+ miles off-shore.

-- Geoff

[email protected] July 28th 08 05:42 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On Jul 28, 8:34*am, GeoffSchultz
wrote:
...
I find exactly the opposite to be true. *The NOAA forecasts are much
more reliable off shore than they are on-shore where land effects can
significantly modify the wind patterns. *I believe that they even
state that the forecasts are for 12+ miles off-shore. ...


I don't know where you sail. However, my guess is you are not using
the correct weather product. In most places in the USA NOAA provides
marine forecasts in zones. The zones tend to be along the lines of
near-shore, coastal and offshore with near-shore zones being the
smallest and having the highest detail the offshore the largest and
least detailed. The near shore and coastal products do take land
effects into account. For instance, there are nine zones for which
NOAA produces marine products in the bay and sea areas around San
Francisco. That's pretty typical. The reason they go to all that
trouble is that the wx is often quite different in each zone. So, yes
it is likely they do provide a product that is only valid 12+ miles
off shore in your area. But, if they do then they almost certainly
also have one for the near shore waters and the reason they have
another zone is that they expect the wx to be different nearer shore
and the near shore. It shouldn't come as a surprise that the 12+ mile
out forecast does a poor job of predicting things closer in.

If you want to geek out on this then you will want to look into the
meso scale modeling. You can get NAM and COAMPS grib data from NOAA
for the coastal waters of North America. If you check it out I think
you'll see that the models do take local geographical features into
account. Near shore your local wx dude has these high resolution
models, radar, reporting stations, and so on giving him the best
information to build his forecast from and a small area to
prognosticate over. As the forecast area moves offshore and gets
larger he has less detailed information and has to average the
forecast over a larger area and, IME, the results are, as you would
expect less accurate. YMMV.

-- Tom.

[email protected] July 28th 08 07:36 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On Jul 28, 10:41*am, wrote:
...
I've heard others say the same thing, but the truth is, it matters
where you sail. In the Long Island Sound and surrounding area, NOAA
marine forecasts are worthless. After years of checking 5 different
forecasts including NOAA whenever I needed one, I finally determined
that Accuweather is the most reliable forecaster in my area. I don't
know the reason, but that's the situation here.


Don't get me wrong. My first point was that weather forecasts are not
very reliable and, even if they come in slick digital packages, need
to be checked against the reality of conditions around you. The
argument I was trying to make in the post you replied to was that if
the forecast is bad near shore it will probably be worse offshore all
else being equal. Here in the Pacific doing my own routing and
helping others with theirs my experiences with NOAA's ocean forecasts
and wx faxes has not been good. One nice feature of NOAA forecasts is
that they are signed by the forecaster and I have found that some
forecasters are better than others and some are more interested in
marine weather than others. Reading the "discussion" can provide a
feel for the local abilities and bents. Some of the NOAA guys do way
worse on average than the models. If you are in one of those places
and it matters to you I'd suggest making an effort to get meso scale
model data, particularly NAM.

FWIW, I get my NAM charts from buoyweather.com (I find the slp/rain
chart very useful). I think it's worth the subscription fee. You can
get the data in lots of wrappers for free from NOAA but it is based on
an LC projection so it doesn't work well with my viewer or with the
saildocs chopper. I get COAMPS free from saildocs. I find it a
little less good on average than NAM and the Navy doesn't put COAMPS
out when they are using their computers for other things so it isn't
always available.

Anyway, my motivation for all this typing is that every year I hear
the new guys getting all excited about their GRIBs and so on at the
start of the voyaging season only to hear them complain bitterly when
it turns out that the GRIBs are actually less accurate than the local
wx products they've been dising for years. Yes, every year the wx
forecasting seems to get a bit better but it is a long way from
reliable and it is important to be skeptical and keep a weather eye
open. It sounded to me like Skip was pretty excited about all his new
wx inputs, and I'm glad he's got them, but I wanted to point out that,
regardless of how much they cost or how pretty the charts, they need
to be looked as the very fallible things they are.

-- Tom.


[email protected] July 28th 08 09:11 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On Jul 28, 12:08*pm, Dave wrote:
...
Ya mean the private service does better than the gummint one? Amazing!


Don't know if it changes your feelings but accuweather is wholly
dependent on the US government for the basic wx data they use.

Also, FWIW, I hired a private wx router for my last passage (Honolulu-
San Fran) and fired him less than half the way across since he was

doing much worse than I was with just the government info that I had
access to while underway. He seemed incompetent to me but he's been
in business for years. IME, if the marketplace were working perfectly
the guy I hired would be doing something else for a living...

-- Tom.

GeoffSchultz July 28th 08 10:59 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On Jul 28, 12:42*pm, " wrote:
On Jul 28, 8:34*am, GeoffSchultz
wrote:
...

I find exactly the opposite to be true. *The NOAA forecasts are much
more reliable off shore than they are on-shore where land effects can
significantly modify the wind patterns. *I believe that they even
state that the forecasts are for 12+ miles off-shore. ...


I don't know where you sail. *However, my guess is you are not using
the correct weather product. *In most places in the USA NOAA provides
marine forecasts in zones. *The zones tend to be along the lines of
near-shore, coastal and offshore with near-shore zones being the
smallest and having the highest detail the offshore the largest and
least detailed. *The near shore and coastal products do take land
effects into account. *For instance, there are nine zones for which
NOAA produces marine products in the bay and sea areas around San
Francisco. *That's pretty typical. *The reason they go to all that
trouble is that the wx is often quite different in each zone. *So, yes
it is likely they do provide a product that is only valid 12+ miles
off shore in your area. *But, if they do then they almost certainly
also have one for the near shore waters and the reason they have
another zone is that they expect the wx to be different nearer shore
and the near shore. *It shouldn't come as a surprise that the 12+ mile
out forecast does a poor job of predicting things closer in.

If you want to geek out on this then you will want to look into the
meso scale modeling. *You can get NAM and COAMPS grib data from NOAA
for the coastal waters of North America. *If you check it out I think
you'll see that the models do take local geographical features into
account. *Near shore your local wx dude has these high resolution
models, radar, reporting stations, and so on giving him the best
information to build his forecast from and a small area to
prognosticate over. *As the forecast area moves offshore and gets
larger he has less detailed information and has to average the
forecast over a larger area and, IME, the results are, as you would
expect less accurate. *YMMV.

-- Tom.


Most of my sailing is in the Caribbean with the majority of it being
in the NW Caribbean. I utilize GRIB files with GFS and/or NOGAPS
modules. There are no localized forcasts for on/off-shore.
Everything is off shore and on a macro scale. It's amazing how many
"small" scale systems move through that never make it onto any chart.
If you're coastal US, then I would believe that the localized coastal
forecasts should be fairly accurate.

-- Geoff

Skip Gundlach July 28th 08 11:22 PM

(sorta) Flying Pig Float Plan
 
OK...

I promised...

So, those of you who feel we're a danger to boaters and want us to
maintain a minimum of the sort of distance demanded by the US sub
fleet, mail me directly with your lat/long and I'll honor your wishes.

OTOH, if you'd like to get a look at the crazies aboard Flying Pig,
stay tuned. Next stop Portland, ME area, ETA 10-25 days, or earlier
shore points as dictated by circumstance. LMK where (this bunch of)
you are, and we'll try to rendezvous.

FWIW, I've only hit rocks (once) and mud (many times) with Flying Pig,
but we'll anchor and let you raft up if you're nervous :{))

--
L8R

Skip

Morgan 461 #2
SV Flying Pig KI4MPC
See our galleries at www.justpickone.org/skip/gallery !
Follow us at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TheFlyingPigLog
and/or http://groups.google.com/group/flyingpiglog

"You are never given a wish without also being given the power to
make it come true. You may have to work for it however."
(and)
"There is no such thing as a problem without a gift for you in its
hands. You seek problems because you need their gifts."
(Richard Bach, in The Reluctant Messiah)

"Skip Gundlach" wrote in message
...

Flying Pig Float Plan


Our current plan is to depart on the falling tide on Monday, July
28 afternoon. Our best forecasts of currents and winds at this
time are for us to go directly East from St. Mary's River to the
Gulf Stream, taking advantage of the offshore currents to get us
there, rather than angling north to take the longer leg of the
triangle. We anticipate picking up the Gulf Stream early
Tuesday. Current in that area can be viewed he
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy.../145/0-0-17/16

Once in the Gulf Stream, weather and currents allowing, we'll
stay in it through approximately 38-00N/70-00W, about halfway
between Cape Charles and Cape May's latitude, then turn from its
eastward bend to Northeast, approaching Cape Cod. Current in
that area can be viewed he
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy.../145/0-0-17/24

At approximately 40-37N and 69-00W, we'll turn north, to go
through the Great South Channel off Cape Cod, and once clear of
the shoal areas, turn slightly northwest to go to Portland.
Depending on what time we arrive, the currents could be very
favorable or heavily against us. You can see those he
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy.../145/0-0-17/32

We intend daily reports via sailmail, as well as having our SPOT
(http://share.findmespot.com/shared/f...PLcZGvSb3 nMe)
on continuously during our passage. We'll also send "OK"
messages via Spot on a daily basis.

At this time weather, wind and currents all look very good for
our passage, but in the event that changes, or there are
equipment difficulties which suggest otherwise, we'll not
hesitate to come in from wherever we are at the time.

See our log listings for the daily reports...

L8R

Skip and Lydia (and Portia, of course!)


Morgan 461 #2
SV Flying Pig KI4MPC
See our galleries at www.justpickone.org/skip/gallery !
Follow us at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TheFlyingPigLog
and/or http://groups.google.com/group/flyingpiglog

"You are never given a wish without also being given the power
to make it come true. You may have to work for it however."
(and)
"There is no such thing as a problem without a gift for you in
its hands. You seek problems because you need their gifts."
(Richard Bach, in The Reluctant Messiah)





[email protected] July 29th 08 12:09 AM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On Jul 28, 2:59*pm, GeoffSchultz
wrote:
...
Most of my sailing is in the Caribbean with the majority of it being
in the NW Caribbean. *I utilize GRIB files with GFS and/or NOGAPS
modules. *...


You had me confused. I thought you were using NOAA text products.
Just so you know, COAMPS is available for all of the Caribbean at 0.2
degree resolution @ 3 hour intervals through saildocs or viewfax.
COAMPS is the meso scale version of NOGAPS (both kindness of the USN)
and it has the same availability problems that NOGAPS has. But when
it it there it should provide a more local view than NOGAPS and will
take sea/land interaction into account. Check it out, you might like
it. I think NAM only goes to Puerto Rico. Too bad, as it is better
yet.

-- Tom.

[email protected] July 29th 08 12:50 AM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On Jul 28, 2:03*pm, wrote:
On Mon, 28 Jul 2008 13:11:43 -0700 (PDT), "

wrote:
On Jul 28, 12:08*pm, Dave wrote:
...
Ya mean the private service does better than the gummint one? Amazing!


Don't know if it changes your feelings but accuweather is wholly
dependent on the US government for the basic wx data they use.


I'll bet that Wolfgang Puck can make a better dinner than you can, using the
exact same ingredients.


I'm not taking that bet! :) But, I might bet that accuweather is
just giving you straight meso model output as provided by NOAA and it
is better than the local NOAA wx guy because the wx guy is degrading
the data.

-- Tom.

[email protected] July 29th 08 12:59 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
Geoff Schultz wrote:
If you're coastal US, then I would believe that the localized coastal
forecasts should be fairly accurate.


Sure. Often, they're so vague or describe such a wide range of
probably conditions that they're not useful, but they're usually quite
accurate.

On Jul 29, 6:38 am, wrote:
And you would be wrong, at least in my part of the coastal US. Very wrong.


I bet the problem is that you don't know how to read (or listen) to a
weather forecast.

I've kept a weather log as part of my general sailing & cruising for
decades. This includes a decade of trailer-cruising, and trailering
racing one-design class boats all over the eastern US... occasionally
out West.

Back in the 1970s, NOAA weather was about 75% accurate in all the
areas I sailed. Since then, they've improved to about 90%. On our
recent Great Loop, the weather forecasts were actually better than
that.

Often, they aren't very useful... "50% chance of thunderstorms" for
example. "Winds 5 to 15 knots" for another.

But the real problem is that people expect the weatherman to be able
to lead them by the hand and tell them exactly what to expect. Sorry,
nobody can do that. But private services who invest a lot in making
you feel good can give a better result in terms of confidence.

Fresh Breezes (50% chance of)- Doug King


[email protected] July 29th 08 02:40 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On Jul 29, 7:59*am, wrote:
...
Often, they aren't very useful... "50% chance of thunderstorms" for
example. "Winds 5 to 15 knots" for another.


I would say that both of those statements are VERY useful, as long as
they are correct. One tells me that I might get wet and the other
that I can probably sail, without needing a reef.

Todd


[email protected] July 29th 08 04:13 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
wrote:
So, genius, how much of the great loop goes through the Long Island
Sound?


And Saltie/BB's inner soul speaks out.... bitter, lost, a failure,
envious of those who have actually gone places & done things...

How much of my post did you actually read & grasp? About the same as
the weather reports you insist are so inaccurate?

Got any one-design racing in LIS? Think anybody who has spent a couple
decades traveling the eastern US racing sailboats might have been
there once or twice?

Tell you what, log a couple of years of these "inaccurate weather
reports" tally the predictions and the actual conditions, and get back
to us.

As some others have said, it takes a bit of knowledge to interpret
reported weather data, and you have to PAY ATTENTION to predictions
since they often (usually, in fact) change over time. If you like the
Accu-Weather people to hold your hand and tell you that when Mickey's
big hand is on the three, then the wind will shift to the southeast,
then I'm glad they are there to provide that service for you.

Fresh Breezes- Doug King

[email protected] July 29th 08 04:53 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
...
Often, they aren't very useful... "50% chance of thunderstorms" for
example. "Winds 5 to 15 knots" for another.


wrote:
I would say that both of those statements are VERY useful, as long as
they are correct. One tells me that I might get wet and the other
that I can probably sail, without needing a reef.



Fair enough. If you can sail in 15 knots without needing to reef, you
might find 5 knots of wind rather boring though ;)

The "50% chance of thunderstorms" is a joke. There's a 100% chance of
thunderstomrs... the question is, will one hit right where you happen
to be at the moment? And will it be a summer afternoon flash-bang or a
70-knot howler with golf-ball sized hail? I see this a key point!

wrote:
Doug does his boating safely indoors, and he doesn't have sails, just
an ignition key.



Nice to know that being an embittered ex-stalker hasn't changed the
fact that you don't know WTF you're talking about, Saltie/BB.

http://downloads.c-2.com/photos/1210001286.jpg

DSK

Capt. JG July 29th 08 05:10 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
wrote in message
...
http://downloads.c-2.com/photos/1210001286.jpg

DSK



Doug.. nice pic. Is that the one right before the one where you're swept off
the boat by the swinging boom? I heard it was a two-fer, since you got a
picture from both the person taking this one and the guy in the boat taking
one at just the right moment. Just kidding... LOL!

Is this your new boat?

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com




[email protected] July 29th 08 05:41 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
http://downloads.c-2.com/photos/1210001286.jpg


"Capt. JG" wrote:
Doug.. nice pic.


Thanks, it's from a race, too.... well, a few minutes before the
start ;)


... Is that the one right before the one where you're swept off
the boat by the swinging boom? I heard it was a two-fer, since you got a
picture from both the person taking this one and the guy in the boat taking
one at just the right moment. Just kidding... LOL!


That incident was greatly exaggerated. Actually I wasn't swept off the
boat at all, I managed to hold on to the swinging boom with one hand,
continued to steer by dragging my feet in the water, doused the
spinnaker with my free hand then brought the boat to a close-hauled
course and stepped back aboard. We passed three of the other boats in
the race, and also caught a fish, during this maneuver. There is no
truth to the rumor that anybody went overboard, much less Angelina
Jolie, during that race. I wish people would stop repeating &
spreading these outlandish tales about what happens on my boat....

Is this your new boat?


It's a 1981 but it's new to me! Been a lot of fun so far!

DSK



Capt. JG July 29th 08 06:21 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
wrote in message
...
http://downloads.c-2.com/photos/1210001286.jpg



"Capt. JG" wrote:
Doug.. nice pic.


Thanks, it's from a race, too.... well, a few minutes before the
start ;)


... Is that the one right before the one where you're swept off
the boat by the swinging boom? I heard it was a two-fer, since you got a
picture from both the person taking this one and the guy in the boat
taking
one at just the right moment. Just kidding... LOL!


That incident was greatly exaggerated. Actually I wasn't swept off the
boat at all, I managed to hold on to the swinging boom with one hand,
continued to steer by dragging my feet in the water, doused the
spinnaker with my free hand then brought the boat to a close-hauled
course and stepped back aboard. We passed three of the other boats in
the race, and also caught a fish, during this maneuver. There is no
truth to the rumor that anybody went overboard, much less Angelina
Jolie, during that race. I wish people would stop repeating &
spreading these outlandish tales about what happens on my boat....


The set up for the fish catching part was great.

Angelina only goes overboard when it comes to adopting kids from Africa.

Is this your new boat?


It's a 1981 but it's new to me! Been a lot of fun so far!

DSK


Looks great!
--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com




Wayne.B July 29th 08 10:03 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:41:11 -0700 (PDT), wrote:


That incident was greatly exaggerated. Actually I wasn't swept off the
boat at all, I managed to hold on to the swinging boom with one hand,
continued to steer by dragging my feet in the water, doused the
spinnaker with my free hand then brought the boat to a close-hauled
course and stepped back aboard.


Yes, but were you also trimming the main sheet with your teeth ?


Capt. JG July 29th 08 10:25 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
"Wayne.B" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:41:11 -0700 (PDT), wrote:


That incident was greatly exaggerated. Actually I wasn't swept off the
boat at all, I managed to hold on to the swinging boom with one hand,
continued to steer by dragging my feet in the water, doused the
spinnaker with my free hand then brought the boat to a close-hauled
course and stepped back aboard.


Yes, but were you also trimming the main sheet with your teeth ?



Well, duhhh....

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com




Jere Lull July 30th 08 01:10 AM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On 2008-07-29 11:53:04 -0400, said:

Fair enough. If you can sail in 15 knots without needing to reef, you
might find 5 knots of wind rather boring though ;)


Depends on the boat. We had forecasts for 5-15 Sunday and got them all
at some point or another. Reefed for a few, but it's no big deal for us.

The "50% chance of thunderstorms" is a joke. There's a 100% chance of
thunderstomrs... the question is, will one hit right where you happen
to be at the moment? And will it be a summer afternoon flash-bang or a
70-knot howler with golf-ball sized hail? I see this a key point!


THAT takes local knowledge and interpretation. Around here, if they add
"afternoon" to that, they'll be summer squalls over about 50% of the
area. When it's *not* just squalls, they'll split up the AM and PM
forecasts. Below 20%, they're covering their butt. Between 20-40, we
can probably sail around the isolated clouds. 60 or higher, and we'll
at best be able to scoot quickly between cells. 80+ and we'll likely
hunker down.

Problem with forecasts, particularly where we are, is that the weather
above Pooles Island can differ from below. We had that happen Sunday.
Were on the Bush and scooted just ahead of a black cloud to the north
coming south. We got some good winds and a light drizzle, our friends
on the Sassafras (about 5 nm away) got PLASTERED.

4th of July weekend, we had a couple-hour monsoon at Fairlee (eastern
shore). Our friends on the Gunpowder River (western shore) didn't get a
drop.

All this in a 5-nm radius from Pooles Island.

--
Jere Lull
Xan-à-Deux -- Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD
Xan's pages:
http://web.mac.com/jerelull/iWeb/Xan/
Our BVI trips & tips: http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/


Jere Lull July 30th 08 11:11 PM

Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On 2008-07-30 10:41:02 -0400, Dave said:

On Wed, 30 Jul 2008 00:10:13 GMT, Jere Lull said:

Below 20%, they're covering their butt. Between 20-40, we
can probably sail around the isolated clouds. 60 or higher, and we'll
at best be able to scoot quickly between cells. 80+ and we'll likely
hunker down.


The summer LIS forecast virtually always says something about a
"possibility" of thunderstorms. As a rule of thumb, I will generally go out
unless the probability is more than 50%.


Pretty close to the Chesapeake. I've gotten a little more bold after 16
season's experience. I'm more rarely surprised these days since I
recognize the bad signs more reliably.

Again, that's part of the local knowledge required to interpret any
weather report. I'd be more chicken in foreign cruising grounds -- even
as close as the Chesapeake below the Bay Bridge, within sight of our
marina on a good day.

--
Jere Lull
Xan-à-Deux -- Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD
Xan's pages: http://web.mac.com/jerelull/iWeb/Xan/
Our BVI trips & tips: http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/


Thomas, Spring Point Light July 31st 08 05:17 PM

(sorta) Flying Pig Float Plan
 

"Skip Gundlach" wrote in message
...
OK...

I promised...

So, those of you who feel we're a danger to boaters and want us to
maintain a minimum of the sort of distance demanded by the US sub fleet,
mail me directly with your lat/long and I'll honor your wishes.

OTOH, if you'd like to get a look at the crazies aboard Flying Pig, stay
tuned. Next stop Portland, ME area, ETA 10-25 days, or earlier shore
points as dictated by circumstance. LMK where (this bunch of) you are,
and we'll try to rendezvous.

FWIW, I've only hit rocks (once) and mud (many times) with Flying Pig, but
we'll anchor and let you raft up if you're nervous :{))

--
L8R

Skip

Morgan 461 #2
SV Flying Pig KI4MPC
See our galleries at www.justpickone.org/skip/gallery !
Follow us at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TheFlyingPigLog
and/or http://groups.google.com/group/flyingpiglog

"You are never given a wish without also being given the power to make it
come true. You may have to work for it however."
(and)
"There is no such thing as a problem without a gift for you in its hands.
You seek problems because you need their gifts."
(Richard Bach, in The Reluctant Messiah)

"Skip Gundlach" wrote in message
...

Flying Pig Float Plan


Our current plan is to depart on the falling tide on Monday, July
28 afternoon. Our best forecasts of currents and winds at this
time are for us to go directly East from St. Mary's River to the
Gulf Stream, taking advantage of the offshore currents to get us
there, rather than angling north to take the longer leg of the
triangle. We anticipate picking up the Gulf Stream early
Tuesday. Current in that area can be viewed he
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy.../145/0-0-17/16

Once in the Gulf Stream, weather and currents allowing, we'll
stay in it through approximately 38-00N/70-00W, about halfway
between Cape Charles and Cape May's latitude, then turn from its
eastward bend to Northeast, approaching Cape Cod. Current in
that area can be viewed he
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy.../145/0-0-17/24

At approximately 40-37N and 69-00W, we'll turn north, to go
through the Great South Channel off Cape Cod, and once clear of
the shoal areas, turn slightly northwest to go to Portland.
Depending on what time we arrive, the currents could be very
favorable or heavily against us. You can see those he
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy.../145/0-0-17/32

We intend daily reports via sailmail, as well as having our SPOT
(http://share.findmespot.com/shared/f...PLcZGvSb3 nMe)
on continuously during our passage. We'll also send "OK"
messages via Spot on a daily basis.

At this time weather, wind and currents all look very good for
our passage, but in the event that changes, or there are
equipment difficulties which suggest otherwise, we'll not
hesitate to come in from wherever we are at the time.

See our log listings for the daily reports...

L8R

Skip and Lydia (and Portia, of course!)


Morgan 461 #2
SV Flying Pig KI4MPC
See our galleries at www.justpickone.org/skip/gallery !
Follow us at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TheFlyingPigLog
and/or http://groups.google.com/group/flyingpiglog

"You are never given a wish without also being given the power
to make it come true. You may have to work for it however."
(and)
"There is no such thing as a problem without a gift for you in
its hands. You seek problems because you need their gifts."
(Richard Bach, in The Reluctant Messiah)

================================================== ===============

Wondering ::: why do you post your every move here? One sentence would do
it
[ leaving for Maine ]

I sail Maine, there are hundreds of sailboats sailing the coast. They don't
post their
every move here.

Less posting ,, more sailing ..



Wilbur Hubbard[_2_] July 31st 08 05:34 PM

(sorta) Flying Pig Float Plan
 

"Thomas, Spring Point Light" wrote in message
news:DAlkk.644$rb5.382@trnddc04...

"Skip Gundlach" wrote in message
...
OK...

I promised...

So, those of you who feel we're a danger to boaters and want us to
maintain a minimum of the sort of distance demanded by the US sub fleet,
mail me directly with your lat/long and I'll honor your wishes.

OTOH, if you'd like to get a look at the crazies aboard Flying Pig, stay
tuned. Next stop Portland, ME area, ETA 10-25 days, or earlier shore
points as dictated by circumstance. LMK where (this bunch of) you are,
and we'll try to rendezvous.

FWIW, I've only hit rocks (once) and mud (many times) with Flying Pig,
but we'll anchor and let you raft up if you're nervous :{))

--
L8R

Skip

Morgan 461 #2
SV Flying Pig KI4MPC
See our galleries at www.justpickone.org/skip/gallery !
Follow us at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TheFlyingPigLog
and/or http://groups.google.com/group/flyingpiglog

"You are never given a wish without also being given the power to make it
come true. You may have to work for it however."
(and)
"There is no such thing as a problem without a gift for you in its hands.
You seek problems because you need their gifts."
(Richard Bach, in The Reluctant Messiah)

"Skip Gundlach" wrote in message
...

Flying Pig Float Plan


Our current plan is to depart on the falling tide on Monday, July
28 afternoon. Our best forecasts of currents and winds at this
time are for us to go directly East from St. Mary's River to the
Gulf Stream, taking advantage of the offshore currents to get us
there, rather than angling north to take the longer leg of the
triangle. We anticipate picking up the Gulf Stream early
Tuesday. Current in that area can be viewed he
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy.../145/0-0-17/16

Once in the Gulf Stream, weather and currents allowing, we'll
stay in it through approximately 38-00N/70-00W, about halfway
between Cape Charles and Cape May's latitude, then turn from its
eastward bend to Northeast, approaching Cape Cod. Current in
that area can be viewed he
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy.../145/0-0-17/24

At approximately 40-37N and 69-00W, we'll turn north, to go
through the Great South Channel off Cape Cod, and once clear of
the shoal areas, turn slightly northwest to go to Portland.
Depending on what time we arrive, the currents could be very
favorable or heavily against us. You can see those he
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy.../145/0-0-17/32

We intend daily reports via sailmail, as well as having our SPOT
(http://share.findmespot.com/shared/f...PLcZGvSb3 nMe)
on continuously during our passage. We'll also send "OK"
messages via Spot on a daily basis.

At this time weather, wind and currents all look very good for
our passage, but in the event that changes, or there are
equipment difficulties which suggest otherwise, we'll not
hesitate to come in from wherever we are at the time.

See our log listings for the daily reports...

L8R

Skip and Lydia (and Portia, of course!)


Morgan 461 #2
SV Flying Pig KI4MPC
See our galleries at www.justpickone.org/skip/gallery !
Follow us at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TheFlyingPigLog
and/or http://groups.google.com/group/flyingpiglog

"You are never given a wish without also being given the power
to make it come true. You may have to work for it however."
(and)
"There is no such thing as a problem without a gift for you in
its hands. You seek problems because you need their gifts."
(Richard Bach, in The Reluctant Messiah)

================================================== ===============

Wondering ::: why do you post your every move here? One sentence would do
it
[ leaving for Maine ]

I sail Maine, there are hundreds of sailboats sailing the coast. They
don't post their
every move here.

Less posting ,, more sailing ..



The answer to your question is obvious and I have answered it in prior
posts. But, it is an important question so I shall answer it again.

Skippy and his ilk are brainwashed dolts. They seem to think that people
sail only for the sake of having other people read or hear about their
exploits. The idea that sailing is something that is rightly done for its
OWN sake and should be done right is foreign to them. If they ever
entertained the thought of planning a voyage and then accomplishing it
without fuss and without telling anybody about it, they would soon loose
interest.

Skippy is just a kindergarten playground refugee who runs around doing dumb
stuff all the while yelling to anybody within earshot, "Hey, lookit
MEEEEEEE!"

Another way to look at Skippy and his ilk is to equate them to jet-ski
operators. As long as they have an audience they will spend the entire day
going round and round doing their stupid stunts thinking they are the life
of the party and that everybody loves them and is in awe of their skill.
Meanwhile everybody being bothered by them just wishes they'd go away. But,
should everybody on shore pack up and go home the jet-skiers lose interest
and go off to seek an audience elsewhere. Skippy goes from group to group
seeking a audience.

The idea that sailing is done for the sake of an audience and not the sailor
is one warped attitude. But, as can be seen in this very group, it has many
an adherent. It seems to be some sort of a perverse offshoot of the video
age. People like Skippy actually don't think they have done anything unless
a bunch of people are told about it. And if it happens to be a bumbling
idiotic and dangerous effort so much the better. And the telling of what
used to be something to be embarrassed about has become more important than
the doing of it in a seamanlike manner.

It's pathetic.

Wilbur Hubbard



Larry July 31st 08 06:11 PM

(sorta) Flying Pig Float Plan
 
"Wilbur Hubbard" wrote in news:4891e9b1$0
:

It's pathetic.

Wilbur Hubbard



Instead of being complete assholes, why not simply plonk Skip from your
clients or, probably more accurate, WebTV browser boxes?

You're not the only ones who read here and many people who've never been to
sea, and probably are afraid to post for fear of being attacked by the
assholes, like yourselves, trashing the group like a bunch of grade school
bullies, choose.....on their own....to read what he takes the time to post.

Simply put.....**** OFF, ASSHOLES. Did you get the reaction you were
looking for? I suppose you did....(c;




Wilbur Hubbard[_2_] July 31st 08 06:52 PM

(sorta) Flying Pig Float Plan
 

"Larry" wrote in message
...
"Wilbur Hubbard" wrote in news:4891e9b1$0
:

It's pathetic.

Wilbur Hubbard



Instead of being complete assholes, why not simply plonk Skip from your
clients or, probably more accurate, WebTV browser boxes?

You're not the only ones who read here and many people who've never been
to
sea, and probably are afraid to post for fear of being attacked by the
assholes, like yourselves, trashing the group like a bunch of grade school
bullies, choose.....on their own....to read what he takes the time to
post.

Simply put.....**** OFF, ASSHOLES. Did you get the reaction you were
looking for? I suppose you did....(c;




Your reaction is exactly what I expected from you. Name calling, profanity
and ignorance. Attack the messenger and not the message.

This is your way of discussing? Then you should reconsider your choice to
participate in discussion groups.

My post is on topic, it answers another subscriber's question using my
observations and unique viewpoint based upon more years of sailing
experience than you can claim. The other subscriber has also noted the
absurdity of how some so-called sailors operate these days and how, even
more absurdly, that there are a number of folks who fail to notice this
absurdity. I've had the benefit of being alive way back when people sailed
because they loved the sailing life. Sailing was its own reward. Today
there's a bunch of misguided people who are little more a bunch of stupid
and inept, back-patting, publicity hounds putting publicity before common
sense and safety. They sail only to get noticed. This is absurd!

My observations are valid and based upon facts. It is not my concern if some
people's sensibilities are offended. That's their problem, not mine! Unlike
you, I don't pretend to be everybody's mother.

Wilbur Hubbard




Capt. JG July 31st 08 07:36 PM

(sorta) Flying Pig Float Plan
 
"Larry" wrote in message
...
"Wilbur Hubbard" wrote in news:4891e9b1$0
:

It's pathetic.

Wilbur Hubbard



Instead of being complete assholes, why not simply plonk Skip from your
clients or, probably more accurate, WebTV browser boxes?

You're not the only ones who read here and many people who've never been
to
sea, and probably are afraid to post for fear of being attacked by the
assholes, like yourselves, trashing the group like a bunch of grade school
bullies, choose.....on their own....to read what he takes the time to
post.

Simply put.....**** OFF, ASSHOLES. Did you get the reaction you were
looking for? I suppose you did....(c;


Larry, Larry... Neal knows exactly what he's doing. He pathologic, but not
stupid. He's just interested in disruption and harassment, and he has no
interest in communicating, learning, or even (God help us) teaching.

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com




[email protected] July 31st 08 09:50 PM

(sorta) Flying Pig Float Plan
 
Capt. JG wrote:
"Larry" wrote in message


snip

... but not stupid.


Larry will never let you get by with a baseless assertion like that! :-)

Keith

Shad O'Shay July 31st 08 10:04 PM

(sorta) Flying Pig Float Plan
 

"Wilbur Hubbard" wrote in message
anews.com...

"Larry" wrote in message
...
"Wilbur Hubbard" wrote in news:4891e9b1$0
:

It's pathetic.

Wilbur Hubbard



Instead of being complete assholes, why not simply plonk Skip from your
clients or, probably more accurate, WebTV browser boxes?

You're not the only ones who read here and many people who've never been
to
sea, and probably are afraid to post for fear of being attacked by the
assholes, like yourselves, trashing the group like a bunch of grade
school
bullies, choose.....on their own....to read what he takes the time to
post.

Simply put.....**** OFF, ASSHOLES. Did you get the reaction you were
looking for? I suppose you did....(c;




Your reaction is exactly what I expected from you. Name calling, profanity
and ignorance. Attack the messenger and not the message.

This is your way of discussing? Then you should reconsider your choice to
participate in discussion groups.

My post is on topic, it answers another subscriber's question using my
observations and unique viewpoint based upon more years of sailing
experience than you can claim. The other subscriber has also noted the
absurdity of how some so-called sailors operate these days and how, even
more absurdly, that there are a number of folks who fail to notice this
absurdity. I've had the benefit of being alive way back when people sailed
because they loved the sailing life. Sailing was its own reward. Today
there's a bunch of misguided people who are little more a bunch of stupid
and inept, back-patting, publicity hounds putting publicity before common
sense and safety. They sail only to get noticed. This is absurd!

My observations are valid and based upon facts. It is not my concern if
some people's sensibilities are offended. That's their problem, not mine!
Unlike you, I don't pretend to be everybody's mother.

Wilbur Hubbard



Blimey! And they call John McCain the straight talk express? He can't hold
a candle to you, Wilbur Hubbard. You irritate me. Your too haughty. But I
can't really find any lies in your rant. I think your points have merit.
Sailing has definitely become a *******ized sport. But, so has just about
everything else these days. Go figure.

Shad O'Shay



Bruce in Bangkok[_7_] August 1st 08 01:50 PM

(sorta) Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On Thu, 31 Jul 2008 17:11:47 +0000, Larry wrote:

"Wilbur Hubbard" wrote in news:4891e9b1$0
:

It's pathetic.

Wilbur Hubbard



Instead of being complete assholes, why not simply plonk Skip from your
clients or, probably more accurate, WebTV browser boxes?

You're not the only ones who read here and many people who've never been to
sea, and probably are afraid to post for fear of being attacked by the
assholes, like yourselves, trashing the group like a bunch of grade school
bullies, choose.....on their own....to read what he takes the time to post.

Simply put.....**** OFF, ASSHOLES. Did you get the reaction you were
looking for? I suppose you did....(c;


Larry, if he killed files everyone that he does not agree with how
large will his kill file be?


Bruce-in-Bangkok
(correct Address is bpaige125atgmaildotcom)

Larry August 1st 08 02:45 PM

(sorta) Flying Pig Float Plan
 
Bruce in Bangkok wrote in
:

Larry, if he killed files everyone that he does not agree with how
large will his kill file be?



If he killfiled them, he'd have nothing to read and respond to....(c;


Bruce in Bangkok[_7_] August 2nd 08 08:27 AM

(sorta) Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On Fri, 01 Aug 2008 13:45:08 +0000, Larry wrote:

Bruce in Bangkok wrote in
:

Larry, if he killed files everyone that he does not agree with how
large will his kill file be?



If he killfiled them, he'd have nothing to read and respond to....(c;


Must be a hell of a life at the top.....everybody else being
dummies...


Bruce-in-Bangkok
(correct Address is bpaige125atgmaildotcom)

Goofball_star_dot_etal August 5th 08 10:20 PM

(sorta) Flying Pig Float Plan
 
On Thu, 31 Jul 2008 12:34:56 -0400, "Wilbur Hubbard"
wrote:


The idea that sailing is done for the sake of an audience and not the sailor
is one warped attitude. But, as can be seen in this very group, it has many
an adherent. It seems to be some sort of a perverse offshoot of the video
age. People like Skippy actually don't think they have done anything unless
a bunch of people are told about it. And if it happens to be a bumbling
idiotic and dangerous effort so much the better. And the telling of what
used to be something to be embarrassed about has become more important than
the doing of it in a seamanlike manner.

It's pathetic.

Wilbur Hubbard


I hope this does not upset you too much..
http://www.wareing77.plus.com/Lymington%20trip/




Wilbur Hubbard[_2_] August 6th 08 12:59 AM

(sorta) Flying Pig Float Plan
 

"Goofball_star_dot_etal" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 31 Jul 2008 12:34:56 -0400, "Wilbur Hubbard"
wrote:


The idea that sailing is done for the sake of an audience and not the
sailor
is one warped attitude. But, as can be seen in this very group, it has
many
an adherent. It seems to be some sort of a perverse offshoot of the video
age. People like Skippy actually don't think they have done anything
unless
a bunch of people are told about it. And if it happens to be a bumbling
idiotic and dangerous effort so much the better. And the telling of what
used to be something to be embarrassed about has become more important
than
the doing of it in a seamanlike manner.

It's pathetic.

Wilbur Hubbard


I hope this does not upset you too much..
http://www.wareing77.plus.com/Lymington%20trip/



Sure beats the Capt. Skippy dog and pony show, "Queen for a Day," running
soap opera.

I have no objection to an illustrated diary like yours compiled and archived
after the completion of a voyage. It's sort of a log book expanded. What
Skippy does, on the other hand, is sort of a Cruising World Magazine trip
report where the sole purpose of the trip is to report on it, to embellish
ineptitude, to display a laundry list of cock-ups with nary a "I shoulda, I
coulda or I wish I woulda," in sight.

Even more offensive, I'm afraid, is the handful of wannabes here who act
like a little, fair weather, coastwise jaunt is even worthy of note. If they
choose their role models so carelessly and have as their goals or dreams
something so simple that a boat cast adrift could accomplish it why would
even the likes of Skippy wish to cater to their baseness?

Wilbur Hubbard




All times are GMT +1. The time now is 05:33 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ©2004 - 2014 BoatBanter.com