|
Jim Grey disappearance
I've been asked by private email to comment on the Bill Grey disappearance.
Back when I was flying general aviation airplanes, I had a lot more opportunity to the mysterious deaths of people engaged in my favorite activity. When a plane went down without clear cause, the newsgroups I frequented then would erupt with speculation followed by flames about the futility and disrespect of speculation. I never found the speculation that objectionable myself as long as people were not claiming to have the answer because of their superior knowledge, intellect, and analytical skills. Safety in any hazardous environment is always enhanced by pondering what could go wrong and how you would prevent or respond to it. Although I now get paid for applying my knowledge, intellect, and analytical skills to things like the sinking of the Titanic, I couldn't begin to form an opinion about what actually happened here. However, it's instructive for anyone who takes a small craft to sea to think about how this this boat could have disappeared so suddenly that no distress call could be made. -- Roger Long |
Jim Grey disappearance
"Roger Long" wrote in message
... I've been asked by private email to comment on the Bill Grey disappearance. Back when I was flying general aviation airplanes, I had a lot more opportunity to the mysterious deaths of people engaged in my favorite activity. When a plane went down without clear cause, the newsgroups I frequented then would erupt with speculation followed by flames about the futility and disrespect of speculation. I never found the speculation that objectionable myself as long as people were not claiming to have the answer because of their superior knowledge, intellect, and analytical skills. Safety in any hazardous environment is always enhanced by pondering what could go wrong and how you would prevent or respond to it. Although I now get paid for applying my knowledge, intellect, and analytical skills to things like the sinking of the Titanic, I couldn't begin to form an opinion about what actually happened here. However, it's instructive for anyone who takes a small craft to sea to think about how this this boat could have disappeared so suddenly that no distress call could be made. -- Roger Long I've sailed in these waters for years... I can't think of anything that would sink the boat so quickly or thoroughly that would cause no debris. I've been out there in very bad conditions, and it was very benign that day.. light wind, small seas. Here's a possible scenario... by the way it's Jim Gray... He's out there to scatter his mother's ashes. The wind and seas are relatively calm, so he's likely running on the engine. Perhaps he has the autohelm driving. Even sunny, it's pretty cold right now, and with the moving boat, he's definitely wearing a foulie or something for a wind break. Since he's a careful sailor, according to all the reports, he's definitely wearing a PFD is likely tethered to the boat. I would be if single-handing offshore. (I do that in the bay when by myself on a typical day of 15 to 20 kts.) He has some sort of catestrophic medical event.. HA, stroke, whatever, and dies or is incapacitated quickly, unable to summon help. The boat continues under autopilot at say 7 kts. If this happened at 10 nm offshore, about the max range of a cell phone in that area, and he wasn't reported missing until 20:30 hours, then when they finally started looking say at 22:00, he would have been 20 x 7 = 140 nm. It would take them several more hours to search this far out, so he might be 200 nm off. The boat would have something like 40 gals max. So, at 5 miles per gallon (SWAG) that would be 200 nm until the engine died, but if sails were up, it would still be going. Perhaps he was able to sail for part of the trip. If so, that would extend the range. The winds were light, under 10 kts, but that's still enough to make good progress. -- "j" ganz @@ www.sailnow.com |
Jim Grey disappearance
In article , rlong003
@maine.rr.com says... I've been asked by private email to comment on the Bill Grey disappearance. Back when I was flying general aviation airplanes, I had a lot more opportunity to the mysterious deaths of people engaged in my favorite activity. When a plane went down without clear cause, the newsgroups I frequented then would erupt with speculation followed by flames about the futility and disrespect of speculation. I never found the speculation that objectionable myself as long as people were not claiming to have the answer because of their superior knowledge, intellect, and analytical skills. Safety in any hazardous environment is always enhanced by pondering what could go wrong and how you would prevent or respond to it. Although I now get paid for applying my knowledge, intellect, and analytical skills to things like the sinking of the Titanic, I couldn't begin to form an opinion about what actually happened here. However, it's instructive for anyone who takes a small craft to sea to think about how this this boat could have disappeared so suddenly that no distress call could be made. If there's only one person aboard, and that person goes overboard, the boat can take as long as it wants to disappear, and there won't be a distress call. Mark Borgerson |
Jim Grey disappearance
Capt. JG wrote:
Here's a possible scenario... He has some sort of catestrophic medical event.. HA, stroke, whatever, and dies or is incapacitated quickly, unable to summon help. The boat continues under autopilot ... That was my first thought. Maybe it was just on my mind because I'm planning the installation of a windvane and autopilot:) -- Roger Long |
Jim Grey disappearance
Roger Long wrote:
Capt. JG wrote: Here's a possible scenario... He has some sort of catestrophic medical event.. HA, stroke, whatever, and dies or is incapacitated quickly, unable to summon help. The boat continues under autopilot ... That was my first thought. Maybe it was just on my mind because I'm planning the installation of a windvane and autopilot:) To make it worse, with no one to turn on running lights, it could have been t-boned by a tanker in the middle of the night, hundreds of miles away, and never been noticed. Everyone says that floating debris is inevitable, but I'm not so convinced. A glancing blow could easily open a hole that would sink the boat quickly, and if the hatches were closed, how much would escape? |
Jim Grey disappearance
"Jeff" wrote in message
. .. Roger Long wrote: Capt. JG wrote: Here's a possible scenario... He has some sort of catestrophic medical event.. HA, stroke, whatever, and dies or is incapacitated quickly, unable to summon help. The boat continues under autopilot ... That was my first thought. Maybe it was just on my mind because I'm planning the installation of a windvane and autopilot:) To make it worse, with no one to turn on running lights, it could have been t-boned by a tanker in the middle of the night, hundreds of miles away, and never been noticed. Everyone says that floating debris is inevitable, but I'm not so convinced. A glancing blow could easily open a hole that would sink the boat quickly, and if the hatches were closed, how much would escape? Well, that's a possibility, but I think it's more likely to still be out there. -- "j" ganz @@ www.sailnow.com |
Jim Grey disappearance
"Mark Borgerson" wrote in message
.net... In article , rlong003 @maine.rr.com says... I've been asked by private email to comment on the Bill Grey disappearance. Back when I was flying general aviation airplanes, I had a lot more opportunity to the mysterious deaths of people engaged in my favorite activity. When a plane went down without clear cause, the newsgroups I frequented then would erupt with speculation followed by flames about the futility and disrespect of speculation. I never found the speculation that objectionable myself as long as people were not claiming to have the answer because of their superior knowledge, intellect, and analytical skills. Safety in any hazardous environment is always enhanced by pondering what could go wrong and how you would prevent or respond to it. Although I now get paid for applying my knowledge, intellect, and analytical skills to things like the sinking of the Titanic, I couldn't begin to form an opinion about what actually happened here. However, it's instructive for anyone who takes a small craft to sea to think about how this this boat could have disappeared so suddenly that no distress call could be made. If there's only one person aboard, and that person goes overboard, the boat can take as long as it wants to disappear, and there won't be a distress call. Mark Borgerson True, but he did had a history of being tethered and wearing a PFD. -- "j" ganz @@ www.sailnow.com |
Jim Grey disappearance
|
Jim Grey disappearance
"Mark Borgerson" wrote in message
.net... True, but he did had a history of being tethered and wearing a PFD. Depending on the boat and his strength, getting back aboard might have been impossible. That depends a lot on the length of the tether and whether the boat was in motion. In my younger days (more than 30 years ago), I singlehanded around SF Bay in an Islander 24 for a few months after I got out of the Navy. I even ventured as far north as Bodega Bay. After a few foggy mornings out there, I decided I wouldbe better off going back to graduate school! It was bad enough in the summer. I probably would never have ventured outside the Golden Gate in the winter. Since sea time in Large Gray Boats doesn't quite count the same as time in your own sailboat, I was a much less experienced sailor than Bill Gray, though. Mark Borgerson In that case, he would still be attached to the boat... remember, the conditions were fairly benign that day (and still are). Summer is prime sailing season here. Winter sailing is typically either no sailing due to storms or very light wind sailing. -- "j" ganz @@ www.sailnow.com |
Jim Grey disappearance
Roger ,, I didn't know anything about the sinking/disappearance so I looked
up using google. From what I read on the net, there have been other disappearances in that area. Lots of speculation about whales and ships. Sounds like a pretty bad area to boat in. ============================ "Roger Long" wrote in message ... I've been asked by private email to comment on the Bill Grey disappearance. Back when I was flying general aviation airplanes, I had a lot more opportunity to the mysterious deaths of people engaged in my favorite activity. When a plane went down without clear cause, the newsgroups I frequented then would erupt with speculation followed by flames about the futility and disrespect of speculation. I never found the speculation that objectionable myself as long as people were not claiming to have the answer because of their superior knowledge, intellect, and analytical skills. Safety in any hazardous environment is always enhanced by pondering what could go wrong and how you would prevent or respond to it. Although I now get paid for applying my knowledge, intellect, and analytical skills to things like the sinking of the Titanic, I couldn't begin to form an opinion about what actually happened here. However, it's instructive for anyone who takes a small craft to sea to think about how this this boat could have disappeared so suddenly that no distress call could be made. -- Roger Long |
Jim Grey disappearance
"NE Sailboat" wrote in message
news:XIKxh.4040$FM3.311@trndny06... Roger ,, I didn't know anything about the sinking/disappearance so I looked up using google. From what I read on the net, there have been other disappearances in that area. Lots of speculation about whales and ships. Sounds like a pretty bad area to boat in. It can be, but it can also be an outstanding area. If you plan ahead, have all the proper safety equipment, and prepare yourself and your boat, you'll do fine. -- "j" ganz @@ www.sailnow.com |
Jim Grey disappearance
NE Sailboat wrote:
Roger ,, I didn't know anything about the sinking/disappearance so I looked up using google. From what I read on the net, there have been other disappearances in that area. Lots of speculation about whales and ships. Sounds like a pretty bad area to boat in. I'd have to disagree with this. Sure, there are some hazards, but they are well known and easy to avoid. Specifically, there are a couple of shoal areas outside the gate (the Potato Patch and the Southern Shoal) that can be quite uncomfortable, dangerous or even disastrous when the swell is high. There is also some shipping traffic. The shoals are well know to anyone who has spent any time in the area as I understand Grey had. In any case, from all accounts, conditions on the day he disappeared were apparently such that they wouldn't have been a problem even if he went right through one of them. As for the ships, they are confined to a well known and marked channel and unless it's foggy, they are easy to avoid (certainly no harder to avoid than inside the bay). Lots of places have as much or more shipping going in and out than SF bay. I've been out to the Faralons and back many times in our boats. On a nice day (such as it was), it's a wonderful daysail. |
Jim Grey disappearance
"Dan Best" wrote in message
... NE Sailboat wrote: Roger ,, I didn't know anything about the sinking/disappearance so I looked up using google. From what I read on the net, there have been other disappearances in that area. Lots of speculation about whales and ships. Sounds like a pretty bad area to boat in. I'd have to disagree with this. Sure, there are some hazards, but they are well known and easy to avoid. Specifically, there are a couple of shoal areas outside the gate (the Potato Patch and the Southern Shoal) that can be quite uncomfortable, dangerous or even disastrous when the swell is high. There is also some shipping traffic. The shoals are well know to anyone who has spent any time in the area as I understand Grey had. In any case, from all accounts, conditions on the day he disappeared were apparently such that they wouldn't have been a problem even if he went right through one of them. As for the ships, they are confined to a well known and marked channel and unless it's foggy, they are easy to avoid (certainly no harder to avoid than inside the bay). Lots of places have as much or more shipping going in and out than SF bay. I've been out to the Faralons and back many times in our boats. On a nice day (such as it was), it's a wonderful daysail. Dan, In some respects, I'd say that the tanker/container traffic in the bay is more dangerous than outside. There's more of a concentration of traffic (not including ferries, kayakers, sail, pleasure boats, etc.) and less experienced people. I've had customers on my boat who had some sailing experience that on their own would have totally misjudged big ship traffic, both in direction and speed. Outside, they pretty much stay on track. Sounds like you sail in the area... out of where? -- "j" ganz @@ www.sailnow.com |
Jim Grey disappearance
"Capt. JG" wrote in message ... "NE Sailboat" wrote in message news:XIKxh.4040$FM3.311@trndny06... Roger ,, I didn't know anything about the sinking/disappearance so I looked up using google. From what I read on the net, there have been other disappearances in that area. Lots of speculation about whales and ships. Sounds like a pretty bad area to boat in. It can be, but it can also be an outstanding area. If you plan ahead, have all the proper safety equipment, and prepare yourself and your boat, you'll do fine. That concept, couple with more than the IQ of a rock, will apply to all areas of sailing. |
Jim Grey disappearance
"Beatsme" wrote in message
... "Capt. JG" wrote in message ... "NE Sailboat" wrote in message news:XIKxh.4040$FM3.311@trndny06... Roger ,, I didn't know anything about the sinking/disappearance so I looked up using google. From what I read on the net, there have been other disappearances in that area. Lots of speculation about whales and ships. Sounds like a pretty bad area to boat in. It can be, but it can also be an outstanding area. If you plan ahead, have all the proper safety equipment, and prepare yourself and your boat, you'll do fine. That concept, couple with more than the IQ of a rock, will apply to all areas of sailing. Really? Wow. Thanks for the info! g -- "j" ganz @@ www.sailnow.com |
Jim Grey disappearance
Capt. JG wrote:
In some respects, I'd say that the tanker/container traffic in the bay is more dangerous than outside. I agree 100% for all the reasons you state. On "special" days such as opening day, fleet week, etc., we don't even go out any more. It's just too much of a zoo. Sounds like you sail in the area... out of where? We spent the last two years sailing around the Pacific, making it as far as Tonga before family issues mandated that we return last fall. Prior to that, for years we kept out boats either in Richmond's Marina Bay or up in Bodega. Since we got back, our Tayana 37 has been in Richmond Point's Brickyard Cove marina (we got lucky and our names came up to the top of the waiting list just about the time we got back last October). We still haven't gotten around to posting the photos from the 2nd half of the trip, but if you're interested, here are some from the first year. http://triciajean192.home.comcast.net - Dan |
Jim Grey disappearance
"Dan Best" wrote in message
... Capt. JG wrote: In some respects, I'd say that the tanker/container traffic in the bay is more dangerous than outside. I agree 100% for all the reasons you state. On "special" days such as opening day, fleet week, etc., we don't even go out any more. It's just too much of a zoo. Sounds like you sail in the area... out of where? We spent the last two years sailing around the Pacific, making it as far as Tonga before family issues mandated that we return last fall. Prior to that, for years we kept out boats either in Richmond's Marina Bay or up in Bodega. Since we got back, our Tayana 37 has been in Richmond Point's Brickyard Cove marina (we got lucky and our names came up to the top of the waiting list just about the time we got back last October). We still haven't gotten around to posting the photos from the 2nd half of the trip, but if you're interested, here are some from the first year. http://triciajean192.home.comcast.net - Dan Nice boat/pictures. My boat is in Brickyard also (Sabre 30). I was on what I thought was a long waiting list.. Margaret told me 6 mos to a year, but it was only 4 mos. I was in Marina Bay previously. Not bad, but I like the direct access at Brickyard. Last Fleet Week, we were sailing around with just the main up, but did a decent job of staying out of the main part of the crowd... mostly in the slot. Got some great pics of the air show... http://sailnow.photosite.com/FleetWeek2006/. -- "j" ganz @@ www.sailnow.com |
Jim Grey disappearance
Dan,
I agree that this isn't a particularly "bad area to boat in". In fact, I'd say it was one of the best around, offering a great variety of conditions. I feel quite lucky to have had the opportunity to have learned a lot sailing in the SF bay and environs. Interestingly, the gentleman whose boat is across from mine happened to see Mr. Gray's boat as it was exiting the bay. According to my neighbor they were behind him but within sight as they passed under the GG bridge, and eventually caught up and passed him as they headed out to the Farallons. He didn't think anything was wrong or ominous, but he said that at one point the boat turned 90 degrees south, ran for a bit, then turned back west again. Odd, but not that unusual. I think the possibility that something happened, and the boat kept sailing on autopilot is quite high, but I do wonder how much debris would be visible if the boat sank very quickly without rupturing the fuel tanks. Especially if this occurred somewhere outside the search area. Robb Dan Best wrote: NE Sailboat wrote: Roger ,, I didn't know anything about the sinking/disappearance so I looked up using google. From what I read on the net, there have been other disappearances in that area. Lots of speculation about whales and ships. Sounds like a pretty bad area to boat in. I'd have to disagree with this. Sure, there are some hazards, but they are well known and easy to avoid. Specifically, there are a couple of shoal areas outside the gate (the Potato Patch and the Southern Shoal) that can be quite uncomfortable, dangerous or even disastrous when the swell is high. There is also some shipping traffic. The shoals are well know to anyone who has spent any time in the area as I understand Grey had. In any case, from all accounts, conditions on the day he disappeared were apparently such that they wouldn't have been a problem even if he went right through one of them. As for the ships, they are confined to a well known and marked channel and unless it's foggy, they are easy to avoid (certainly no harder to avoid than inside the bay). Lots of places have as much or more shipping going in and out than SF bay. I've been out to the Faralons and back many times in our boats. On a nice day (such as it was), it's a wonderful daysail. |
Jim Grey disappearance
Here's a possible scenario... by the way it's Jim Gray...
He's out there to scatter his mother's ashes. He has some sort of catestrophic medical event.. HA, stroke, whatever, and dies or is incapacitated quickly, unable to summon help. Sure, disposing of a loved one's remains is certainly going to have some degree of stress. Imagine trying to be respectful about it, but a gust of wind picks up and next thing you know you're wearing said ashes. That's enough to freak most people out, so he loses his footing, smacks his head, etc... Or, worse yet, the mental trauma is significant enough to lead to suicide. All around not a good thing. |
Jim Grey disappearance
"Bill Kearney" wkearney-99@hot-mail-com wrote in message
t... Here's a possible scenario... by the way it's Jim Gray... He's out there to scatter his mother's ashes. He has some sort of catestrophic medical event.. HA, stroke, whatever, and dies or is incapacitated quickly, unable to summon help. Sure, disposing of a loved one's remains is certainly going to have some degree of stress. Imagine trying to be respectful about it, but a gust of wind picks up and next thing you know you're wearing said ashes. That's enough to freak most people out, so he loses his footing, smacks his head, etc... Or, worse yet, the mental trauma is significant enough to lead to suicide. All around not a good thing. It's a possibility. Of course, it was about a year since the death, but having been there and done (most of) that, I can see how one would still be a bit freaked out. I don't think suicide is a viable alternative. -- "j" ganz @@ www.sailnow.com |
Jim Grey disappearance
"AMPowers" wrote in message
... Dan, I agree that this isn't a particularly "bad area to boat in". In fact, I'd say it was one of the best around, offering a great variety of conditions. I feel quite lucky to have had the opportunity to have learned a lot sailing in the SF bay and environs. Interestingly, the gentleman whose boat is across from mine happened to see Mr. Gray's boat as it was exiting the bay. According to my neighbor they were behind him but within sight as they passed under the GG bridge, and eventually caught up and passed him as they headed out to the Farallons. He didn't think anything was wrong or ominous, but he said that at one point the boat turned 90 degrees south, ran for a bit, then turned back west again. Odd, but not that unusual. I think the possibility that something happened, and the boat kept sailing on autopilot is quite high, but I do wonder how much debris would be visible if the boat sank very quickly without rupturing the fuel tanks. Especially if this occurred somewhere outside the search area. Robb Dan Best wrote: NE Sailboat wrote: Roger ,, I didn't know anything about the sinking/disappearance so I looked up using google. From what I read on the net, there have been other disappearances in that area. Lots of speculation about whales and ships. Sounds like a pretty bad area to boat in. I'd have to disagree with this. Sure, there are some hazards, but they are well known and easy to avoid. Specifically, there are a couple of shoal areas outside the gate (the Potato Patch and the Southern Shoal) that can be quite uncomfortable, dangerous or even disastrous when the swell is high. There is also some shipping traffic. The shoals are well know to anyone who has spent any time in the area as I understand Grey had. In any case, from all accounts, conditions on the day he disappeared were apparently such that they wouldn't have been a problem even if he went right through one of them. As for the ships, they are confined to a well known and marked channel and unless it's foggy, they are easy to avoid (certainly no harder to avoid than inside the bay). Lots of places have as much or more shipping going in and out than SF bay. I've been out to the Faralons and back many times in our boats. On a nice day (such as it was), it's a wonderful daysail. We've done similar maneauvers to clear lines or battens or whatever. I'd say it's only 5% unusual to do that. -- "j" ganz @@ www.sailnow.com |
| All times are GMT +1. The time now is 12:14 AM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ©2004 - 2014 BoatBanter.com