The following is the actual NOAA weather forecast for the storm. I
clipped this the night of the strom to email to some friends.

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COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
903 PM PST THU DEC 14 2006

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WASHINGTON TO FLORENCE OREGON
AND WESTWARD 60 NM

STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY

TONIGHT
S WIND 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT... VEERING TO
SW 45 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMBINED
SEAS 38 FT DOMINANT PERIOD 12 SECONDS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
..OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST 830 PM PST THU DEC 14 2006

WASHINGTON AND OREGON WATERS FROM 60 NM TO 250 NM OFFSHORE.
CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

OVERNIGHT
W TO NW WINDS 45 TO 55 KT...EXCEPT TO 65 KT OVER
THE W PORTION EARLY. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT BUILDING TO 24 TO 35
FT...HIGHEST SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS...BECOMING ISOLATED LATE.

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Of the 35 or so comments thus far, no one has questioned why this boat
was in the strom to begin with. Even if the boat did not have SSB or a
SAT phone to check in with someone, it would have had to have a VHF
radio and they clearly would have heard the constant NOAA Weather
forecasts stating that HURRICANE FORCE WINDS were expected, with 38
foot seas.

This is not a case of them being caught in a strom 3000 miles out to
sea. They were hugging the coast and could have ducked into any number
of ports. All I can think of is that they thought they could tough it
out, which I would think is a bad assumption given that you have no
exerience with how that boat handles, or, they waited too long to head
for cover and by then the coast guard had closed the entrances to the
harbors because the waves were already breaking on the bars. Thus
leaving them stuck out in the open.

Last fall I traveled down that same stretch, and it only took about a
10 foot swell to close all of the bar entrances, to non-comercial
vessels under 50 feet in length.

-Mark
"Calpurnia"
www.goreads.com

This is not a case of them being caught in a strom 3000 miles out to
sea. They were hugging the coast and could have ducked into any number
of ports. All I can think of is that they thought they could tough it
out, which I would think is a bad assumption given that you have no
exerience with how that boat handles, or, they waited too long to head
for cover and by then the coast guard had closed the entrances to the
harbors because the waves were already breaking on the bars. Thus
leaving them stuck out in the open.

Last fall I traveled down that same stretch, and it only took about a
10 foot swell to close all of the bar entrances, to non-comercial
vessels under 50 feet in length.

-Mark
Mark R. wrote:
The following is the actual NOAA weather forecast for the storm. I
clipped this the night of the strom to email to some friends.

WASHINGTON AND OREGON WATERS FROM 60 NM TO 250 NM OFFSHORE.
CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Of the 35 or so comments thus far, no one has questioned why this boat
was in the strom to begin with.

Its not polite to critize the dead. There are parents, sisters,
lovedones listening and so to those sitting at Davy Jones' table.


Even if the boat did not have SSB or a
SAT phone to check in with someone, it would have had to have a VHF
radio and they clearly would have heard the constant NOAA Weather
forecasts stating that HURRICANE FORCE WINDS were expected, with 38
foot seas.

Yes, and if you read the Ocean Prediction Center weather maps there is
a little boax that says those estimates are ONLY the upper 1/3 mean
wave higth. In other words, there's gonna be a lot more and a lot
bigger than the predicted wave size.

NOw add to that weather advisory... 1) greater wave size because of
shallow areas around headlands (cape balanco) and 2) increased wind
speed at the headlands. 1+2= Bodies not recovered.


Last fall I traveled down that same stretch, and it only took about a
10 foot swell to close all of the bar entrances, to non-comercial
vessels under 50 feet in length.

Well that depends. Astoria, Newport, Coos Bay are the "good bars" Then
ya have the little ones that are never dredged any more because all the
Dredge money goes to the Texas and southern ports. Gee I wonder why?
Sure no need to dredge all those "blue state" channels found in WA OR
CA.

A few months ago some body here posted a troll. It went somethin like
this:
"...I need advice. Im going to sail a new to me boat north from SF to
Seattle in NOvember. I know Im late but still got to go. Im new to
sailing...etc."

Looks like that troll was actually a tragic forecast.

Take it how you want. While I type this Im siting in a motel on the
south side to the Yaquina Bay bridge.Just opend a botttle of Columbia
Crest Merlot I got from Safeway. Under seven bucks. Good deal. But back
to fallin mariners. My house got a widow blown out when that storm went
threw. I think it gusted to 106 mph here.

Ive seen the same thing happen EVER year on this coast. The first time
i was a junior at NHS. My friend larry and i wnt down to Waldport to
check out the sail boat that got blown on the beach. A 40 year old
story and remarkable the same: 60 yo couple retire and sell everything.
Get a nice 32-34" steal boat and head noth form southern cal. They
always had a dream to sail the world said the obituary. Well they hit a
storm about Cape Blanco, got sick, got beat up. The boat was half
sanded in when we got there. i think we were the first there, or at
least there were no other foot prins on the sand. The ports were 8" or
so round and blown in. one was shattered. The salon was full of sand. A
few of their personal things were floating around inside. A coat, a
book, a dream.

And dont even get me started with these OUPV guys. they kill more
coastal visitors every year than I have time to descibe. Lesson
learned? Dont get stuck between a rock and a hard spot.

I wish that people would start reading the Coast Pilot or a crusing
guide.
Bob


-Mark
"Calpurnia"
www.goreads.com
"Calpurnia"
www.goreads.com

"Mark R." wrote in message ups.com...
The following is the actual NOAA weather forecast for the storm. I
clipped this the night of the strom to email to some friends.

- - - - - - - - -

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
Snip....snip....
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Of the 35 or so comments thus far, no one has questioned why this boat
was in the strom to begin with. Snip....Snip....

-Mark
"Calpurnia"
www.goreads.com

In the article, it said "What we do know is that the new owner hired a British yacht
delivery company to deliver the boat from South Africa to Washington for the Seattle Boat Show
in January. They stopped in San Francisco and left again on December 8. That was the last
anyone heard from the crew". How long would it take to get to Seattle from San Francisco?
I would think that they would have time to wait out the storm before pushing on to Seattle.

Link to article:
http://www.latitude38.com/LectronicL...#anchor1085433
--

SeeYaa Harbin Osteen KG6URO

When American Citizens with dual citizenship pledges allegiance
to the flag, to which flag do they pledge allegiance too?

-

In the article, it said "What we do know is that the new owner hired a British yacht
delivery company to deliver the boat from South Africa to Washington for the Seattle Boat Show
in January. They stopped in San Francisco and left again on December 8. That was the last
anyone heard from the crew". How long would it take to get to Seattle from San Francisco?
I would think that they would have time to wait out the storm before pushing on to Seattle.

There are two ways to make the trip, head out to sea about a 100 miles
where the waves are not piled up so much, or stick along the coast so
you can jump into a harbor if the weather turns nasty. It took me over
three weeks to hug the coast when I was heading south from Seattle to
San Diego. Twice I got stuck in a harbor, when the coast guard would
close the entrance and not allow any boats in or out because of waves
breaking on the bar.

This groups challenge was that they were headed against the wind and
the general direction of the swell. That makes for a tough trip on a
good day, but when the wind is blowing 90 and the seas are 40 feet, I'm
not sure how you are making any progress in a controlled fashion.

The fact that the delivery comany was a "British" group may imply that
they were not aware of the challenge with the harbors being closed when
the waves pickup. It is also possible, but not probable, that the were
not aware how the NOAA weather service works and that you need to
change chanels about every 30 miles or so and thus would have thought
they were out of range and could not get weather info.