Boat Safety - and thread arguments
 

Stefan wrote:
In article , says...

There are about 180 million cars in the US, and 12 million registered
boats, so the ratio is 15 to one. The number of boating fatalities is
around 700, but this doesn't include drowning while swimming off a
boat which is a substantial factor, so I will exercise some
prerogative and call it an even 1000 deaths. There are 30000 auto
related deaths, so that ratio is 30 to one.



Both those accident rates are higher than the UK, whose population is
around 25% of the USA. Boating deaths appear vastly higher in the USA. I
wonder why?
There were a substantial number of drownings in UK rivers and streams;
I wonder if this is just a difference in the way they get reported.

Certainly there is no place in the UK like Florida, which has 50% more
boats per capita than New England, itself considered a major boating
area.

BTW, every time I try to show that one area or one type of boat is
more dangerous, I find that it always seems to even out. This has led
me to think people act responsibly up to a certain level of perceived
safety. In other words, until someone you know has been a victim, you
don't think it will happen to you.


UK road deaths around 3200 in 2005 with 30M registered cars.
That's about a ninth of the fatalities with a sixth of the cars. The
average car in the US does about 11,000 miles a year (I think). How
does that compare?


Boat-related deaths:

http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/group.../page/dft_foi_
610522.pdf shows numbers reported to the Marine Accident Investigation
Board. Incidents involving deaths, maybe half a dozen a year.

This report does not include privately owned recreational vessels:
"The MAIB welcomes the voluntary reporting of accidents to or on
pleasure craft used only for recreation purposes and not for
commercial gain, but there is no statutory requirement for this."


http://www.rospa.com/waterandleisure...atersafety.htm
lists 22 boating drownings in the UK in 2004.

There is no legal requirement to register small craft in the UK so
nobody knows how many there are. Also certainly several million.

Is that true for small powerboats? A 25 foot runabout with a big
outboard needs no registration?

Boat Safety - and thread arguments
 

Very glad to see the safety discussion. Most informative. I am very
involved in the US effort to require that all exposed propellers on
boats are guarded. We can use your assistance and input. If you have
never seen the results of someone that has been involved with a
rotating propeller, there are only two other forms of injury that
equals the devastation to the human body being struck at 180 hits per
second at an idle RPM and that is a full body burn or a significant
hostile combat injury. Please join in the discussion whether you agree
or disagree.The site is Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient
Recreational (SAFER) Boating. We just opened for discussion. I am sure
there is much to say pro and con on the exposed propeller injury, pro
and con.
RT

Boat Safety - and thread arguments
 

On Mon, 17 Apr 2006 13:45:07 UTC, Ronald Raygun
wrote:

: Ian Johnston wrote:

: You are assuming, though, that "being on the road" and "being likely
: to die of natural causes" are independent, which is quite definitely
: not the case.
:
: Yes, that's what, for simplicity, I am indeed assuming, and fully
: accept that this is likely not to be the case. I'm not sure I'd
: guess correctly which way the skew works.

I'd have thought it would skew very strongly away from natural deaths
on the roads. Most people are ill before they die and most ill people
are in bed: either at home or in a hospital.

: In addition, the 3,500 deaths per year
:
: What 3500 deaths per year? Your figure was 3000 accidental deaths
: per year per 60M poulation. Mine was 1 natural death per year per
: 3500 population.

Sorry - I should have explained. I remembered slightly on the low
side.

"According to Department for Transport figures the overall number of
reported road casualties in 2003 were 290,607. This is a 4% reduction
on the figures for 2002. 3,508 people were killed, a 2% increase on
the previous year."

from http://tinyurl.com/hmytt

: Neither "being a glider pilot" nor "dying of natural causes" are
: evenly distributed, and they are not independent. Would you expect 1
: in 700,000 of both schoolchildren and octogenerians to die every hour?
:
: Of course not, but a simplified model might expect accidental deaths
: to be evenly distributed, and natural deaths to be well skewed in
: favour of the old.

Far too simple, I think. It may be OK to assume that accidental deaths
would be evenly distributed amongst the participating population, in
some cases, but that still leaves the participant distribution in the
mix.

What were we arguing about anyway? It can't be that gliding is more
dangerous than driving, 'cos we agree on that!

Is it "how much more dangerous is it?" Here's my new ball park
calculation.

Each year about 5 out of 5000 regularly active UK glider pilots die in
gliding incidents. They'll do about 50 hours per annum, which means
one fatal accident for every 50,000 hours.

Each year about 500 out of 20,000,000 regularly active drivers die in
road traffic incidents (most RTA deaths are pedestrians and many of
the rest are passengers). They'll do about 10,000 miles at 50 mph =
200 hours per annum, which means one death for every 8,000,000 hours.

On that basis, flying a glider is 160 times more dangerous, per hour,
than driving a car. Lots of wiggle room and rounding, obviously, but
I'm happy with a factor of 100 - 200 here.

I've tried to find some statistics for watersports, to drag this
vaguely back on topic, but the best I can do is
http://www.rospa.com/factsheets/accidents_overview.pdf which give 427
drownings per annum. That includes everyone from yachtsmen in storms
to toddlers in paddling pools, though, so I wouldn't even like to try
for a ball park figure here.

Ian

Boat Safety - and thread arguments
 

I imagine the chances of being killed by falling are somewhat higher.


"Stefan" wrote in message
.. .
In article ,
says...

"Stefan" wrote in message
.. .
In article ,
says...

For
instance, mortality rates of bowling are significantly higher than
scuba.

Evidence? I seriously doubt that is actually the case.

The statement also assumes causality. 'Mortality rates OF bowling' is not
the same thing as 'mortality rates WHILST bowling'.


Yes but I doubt the statement is true even regardless of causality.

Some of these nonsense statistics are remarkably persistent. A common
one heard in the climbing community is "There is a 1% chance you will be
killed by climbing in your first year." If you climb, you hear this one
from people all the time. It can be traced to a UK government report
from the 1950s and was clearly wrong even then. Given the way climbing
protection equipment has improved in the meantime, it is wildly
inaccurate today. Nevertheless, people read or hear it, assume it's true
and go on repeating it.

Boat Safety - and thread arguments
 

Dave wrote:
On 17 Apr 2006 08:42:54 -0700, "
said:


I am very
involved in the US effort to require that all exposed propellers on
boats are guarded.


What is the annual rate of deaths and serious injury in the US from
unguarded propellers on sailing craft?
The overall rate is about 2-5 fatalities a year. It seems like many
of them are related to houseboat rentals, and propeller guards may
make sense in that area. Since the stat includes "engine strikes"
along with "prop strikes" its hard to say how many lives would
actually be saved if all outboards had guards.

Given the large number of risks we face every day, I have trouble
supporting "blanket" safety procedures, such as prop guards on all
boat. Until we're ready to ban alcohol, and enforce speed limits, we
shouldn't penalize all boaters for a risk that doesn't quite exist.

Boat Safety - and thread arguments
 

In article ,
says...


UK road deaths around 3200 in 2005 with 30M registered cars.
That's about a ninth of the fatalities with a sixth of the cars. The
average car in the US does about 11,000 miles a year (I think). How
does that compare?


Similar. From memory the UK average is around 9,000 miles.


Boat-related deaths:

http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/group.../page/dft_foi_
610522.pdf shows numbers reported to the Marine Accident Investigation
Board. Incidents involving deaths, maybe half a dozen a year.

This report does not include privately owned recreational vessels:
"The MAIB welcomes the voluntary reporting of accidents to or on
pleasure craft used only for recreation purposes and not for
commercial gain, but there is no statutory requirement for this."

The MAIB does in fact investigate accidents for privately owned
recreational vessels. Several such reports have been discussed here
recently.

There is no legal requirement to register small craft in the UK so
nobody knows how many there are. Also certainly several million.

Is that true for small powerboats? A 25 foot runabout with a big
outboard needs no registration?

Correct.

Boat Safety - and thread arguments
 

Dave wrote:
...

The overall rate is about 2-5 fatalities a year. It seems like many
of them are related to houseboat rentals, and propeller guards may
make sense in that area. Since the stat includes "engine strikes"
along with "prop strikes" its hard to say how many lives would
actually be saved if all outboards had guards.

Given the large number of risks we face every day, I have trouble
supporting "blanket" safety procedures, such as prop guards on all
boat. Until we're ready to ban alcohol, and enforce speed limits, we
shouldn't penalize all boaters for a risk that doesn't quite exist.


While I'm philosophically inclined to agree, there was a reason I asked not
about all boats, but about "sailing craft." And I was in fact inclined to
ask about "sailing craft with inboard engines."

I went back 8 years. A total of roughly 1000 accidents were listed as
"struck by motor or propeller." Of those, only 2 were from auxiliary
sailboats. As I said, there were only a small number of fatalities,
but I would think that any propeller strike would be serious.

Boat Safety - and thread arguments
 

Rob Cullen wrote:
I imagine the chances of being killed by falling are somewhat higher.


Someone once said: "Novice climbers worry about falling, experienced
climbers worry about something falling on them."

Boat Safety - and thread arguments
 

On Mon, 17 Apr 2006 13:03:18 UTC, "News f2s"
wrote:

: 2. I'm now quite clear why insurance rates for general aviation
: are so high, and why boat insurance is similar to car insurance
: rates.

In the first case it's not just, or so much, the frequency of the
accidents, but the possible claims involved. Hit a 747 on the ground
in your Cessna and the bill can easily be tens of millions.

Ian

--

Boat Safety - and thread arguments
 

"Ian Johnston" wrote in message
news:cCUlhtvFIYkV-pn2-h1QXuVTzjBkd@localhost...
On Mon, 17 Apr 2006 13:03:18 UTC, "News f2s"
wrote:

: 2. I'm now quite clear why insurance rates for general
aviation
: are so high, and why boat insurance is similar to car
insurance
: rates.

In the first case it's not just, or so much, the frequency of
the
accidents, but the possible claims involved. Hit a 747 on the
ground
in your Cessna and the bill can easily be tens of millions.

Hmm. These actuaries are pretty bright at their numbers. How many
Cessnas have hit 747s? But I take your general point that
aviation accident costs are much higher per incident. To a degree
that's covered (in insurance terms) if your insurance rates are
charged as a percent of vehicle value.

Quite simply, if any individual GA aircraft has 40 times the
probability of killing someone per annum, I'd expect the premium
to be 40 times higher. Crude. So load by the average value damage
done (compared to a boat) which would be quite a lot higher, x10?
So I wouldn't be surprised to hear that boat insurance runs around
1% to 2% of craft value, while airplane insurance runs around 10%
of value. Roger Long would know if that's the right order - he's
instigated several threads suggesting that aviation insurance
rates may come to boats! Someone here would know.
--
JimB
http://www.jimbaerselman.f2s.com/
Describing some Greek and Spanish cruising areas