The "experts" wrong two years ago when they predicted a very active Atlantic
hurricane season. They were wrong last year when the predicated a well above
average hurricane season. And now these dummies are again predicting an
above average activity hurricane season.

Why should we sailors put any store in forecasts that are demonstrable poor
guesses? What possible good do these faulty forecasts do anybody? It's like
the boy who cried "WOLF" fairy tale. If anything such impotent forecasts
have the opposite of the intended effect. We brush them aside. We think,
"Please get real!".

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbc...010/1086/rss07

Dr. William Gray is out of touch with reality. For one thing he lives in
Colorado - which has never experienced a hurricane. If he were serious he
would move to Texas, Louisiana or Florida so he'd be a little more familiar
with his line of work. His position is untenable. He's sort of like an
ex-pearl diver now living in Kathmandu and trying to guess the pearl harvest
in Hawaii. It's pathetic! It demonstrates the folly of relying too much on
computers and so-called technology while isolating one's self from the
actual climate. Colorado State University? I guess that's in Fort Collins?
Isn't the altitude there about a mile? Maybe Dr. Gray is suffering from
oxygen deficiency. Seems to me people who live at altitude in Colorado are
less intelligent than those who live at sea level. They often suffer from a
host of maladies including high altitude cerebral edema.
http://www.ismmed.org/np_altitude_tutorial.htm

I think Dr. Gray is a bad example for everybody who has the misfortune of
taking him seriously. It takes the willing suspension of belief to even
listen to him. I will continue to do the usual hurricane preparation no
matter the forecast. What I do has served me successfully for 20 years and
all my boats have come through without a scratch. But, of course, my main
course is to put to sea and evade. It's always better to avoid a hurricane
than to be stuck in its projected path with no good options. I've found that
my Swan 68 can easily outrun the typical Atlantic basin hurricane. But, the
safest course is simply sail to the southern hemisphere in the off season
and remain there until the beginning of their season and then sail back to
the northern hemisphere where the season is ending.

Wilbur Hubbard

On Apr 20, 12:38*pm, "Wilbur Hubbard"
wrote:
The "experts" wrong two years ago when they predicted a very active Atlantic
hurricane season.

Why should we sailors put any store in forecasts that are demonstrable poor
guesses?

Dr. William Gray is out of touch with reality. For one thing he lives in
Colorado - which has never experienced a hurricane. If he were serious he
would move to
Wilbur Hubbard

My dearest Willbur.

Me thinks your off base here. two things:
1) living in colorado has nothing to do with a persons meterological
credentials. I live in the PNW and instruct nearly 100 state
university studnts each term. Humm now how do I do that? with my ass
on a boat? In fact I could even live in CO (god forbid) and still
teach my 100 students, or FL for that matter.

2) If you belived in Global Weather Change the reason for getting a
prediction wrong on a GLOBAL scale is obvious for such an inlightened
person as your self. Its all statistics and modeling. Then throw in an
event that is not in the data base (you may call it history) and it
screws up the prediction.

On a last note, both YOU and SKip seem to have a real hard on for
NOAA weather. I on the other hand, an intellegent person having
compleed sucessfully several graduate level statistis courses have
the uderstanding to use the data from the Ocean Prediction Center with
excellent results.

Ya might try the most important weather predection instrument you
have.....................................

THE WINDOW......... now just take a good look !

Bob

"Roger Long" wrote in message
...
The people the good doctor answers to in the real world and not on the
organizational chart (because they can have him replaced) are not
concerned with the micro scale accuracy of weather reports. If
hurricanes are under predicted, the deep pocket insurance companies take a
big hit. If over predicted, they sell more policies.

The biggest ratings for local TV news now come from snowstorms. Every
dusting now seems to be the "Storm of the Century" with the hype beginning
three days in advance. Similar dynamics.

Back when I was flying, I noticed that the FAA weather was always much
more pessimistic and less accurate than the TV stuff. The FAA is focused
more on keeping pilots from being caught and killed by weather than by
their rate of prediction accuracy.

You'll get you best weather reports from objective sources. Those will
not always be the most "official".

--
Roger Long


Weather prognostication has slowly become just another example of the
liberal Nanny State. Predictions are regularly sensationalized, hyped and
"in your face" to instill fear and misunderstanding of the weather to the
fore. I think the reason for this is those in power wish to control the
actions of people by fomenting uncertainty and fear so people become more
reliant on government bureaucracies like NOAA. Dr. Wm. Gray is part of that
system. He's a disgrace and he's definitely brainwashed and out of touch
with reality other than his local reality of government propaganda that says
the poor ignorant populace needs to have their little hands held and made to
feel individuals cannot understand weather and are going to become victims
of weather if they don't pay close attention to what the government tells
them to do.

I'm happy to state that the majority of folks around where I live have
pretty much stopped paying attention to the hype. Most of them laugh at it
and stay put when there is a so-called "mandatory evacuation" which isn't
mandatory at all since people still have the freedom to stay or to go of
their own volition. If and when it comes to the point where a mandatory
evacuation is really mandatory, this country will be well on the way towards
becoming a complete police state.

The authorities are working on trending towards this goal and the hyped-up,
dire and apocalyptic hurricane forecasts so early in the year are a good
example of this. Another is the abused power of the authorities to keep
people who evacuated from returning to their homes after a storm. If there
are just a few downed power lines people are kept out waiting on the
roadside until authorities deem conditions are 'safe.' Give me a frigging
break! Who is some stupid, obese, 30-year-old cop to tell me what's safe for
me? He might be stupid enough to grab hold of a downed power line but I'm
smarter than that.

Wilbur Hubbard

On Sun, 20 Apr 2008 21:56:36 -0700 (PDT), Bob
wrote:

I live in the PNW and instruct nearly 100 state
university studnts each term.

You teach meteorology in the Pacific North Wet ? That has got to be
the easiest job on the world.

What a joke. Do you differentiate between types of rain ?

Monday forecast: rainy, mostly type A

Tuesday: rainy, mostly type A, interspersed with scattered B

Wednesday: A lot like Monday and Tuesday

Thursday: " " " "

Wayne.B wrote:
On Sun, 20 Apr 2008 21:56:36 -0700 (PDT), Bob
wrote:

I live in the PNW and instruct nearly 100 state
university studnts each term.

You teach meteorology in the Pacific North Wet ? That has got to be
the easiest job on the world.

What a joke. Do you differentiate between types of rain ?

Monday forecast: rainy, mostly type A

Tuesday: rainy, mostly type A, interspersed with scattered B

Wednesday: A lot like Monday and Tuesday

Thursday: " " " "

Wrong! It snowed the last 2 days! Type "white" type.
Gordon

"Bob" wrote in message
...
Me thinks your off base here. two things:
1) living in colorado has nothing to do with a persons meterological
credentials. I live in the PNW and instruct nearly 100 state
university studnts each term. Humm now how do I do that? with my ass
on a boat? In fact I could even live in CO (god forbid) and still
teach my 100 students, or FL for that matter.

Living in Colorado enhances one's meteorological credentials. NCAR, NOAA,
NIST and several other federal meteorological agencies are headquartered in
Colorado. Then there are the world class universitites, state institutions
and last, but certainly not least a plethora of companies that research and
manufacture many different types of meteorological instruments. Colorado is
the epicenter of meteorology. Colorado also has the most educated and most
fit population of any state in the US.

Glory!

"Bob Crantz" wrote in message
...

"Bob" wrote in message
...
Me thinks your off base here. two things:
1) living in colorado has nothing to do with a persons meterological
credentials. I live in the PNW and instruct nearly 100 state
university studnts each term. Humm now how do I do that? with my ass
on a boat? In fact I could even live in CO (god forbid) and still
teach my 100 students, or FL for that matter.

Living in Colorado enhances one's meteorological credentials. NCAR, NOAA,
NIST and several other federal meteorological agencies are headquartered
in Colorado. Then there are the world class universitites, state
institutions and last, but certainly not least a plethora of companies
that research and manufacture many different types of meteorological
instruments. Colorado is the epicenter of meteorology. Colorado also has
the most educated and most fit population of any state in the US.

Glory!


This is why any Colorado science or technology is suspect:

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/2008...t-draws-10000/

--
Gregory Hall