There is no upcoming depression. That's wacko. Despite
bu**** and company, it's just not going to happen. All
of the recommendations (except the Swiss account)
are worth doing anyway. Any smart person who can do
it, should do it. Many people cannot in a large measure
because of the current administration.

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

"Bart Senior" wrote in message
et...
Your point is well taken. It is crucial that the
government downsize itself and become fiscally
responsible. That will not happen until the next
crash when it will be unavoidable.

The economic reason for the current spending is it is
believed to forestall recession. And the big fear is of
course the inevitable upcoming depression--which can
be delayed, but not prevented. Unfortunately, delaying
tactics only extend the term of economic crashes. The
balloon will break at some point, consumer confidence
will be lost and we will all be hit hard as real estate prices
crash. Those with liquid assets will be in the best situation
to capitalize. Those in weak positions will lose out.

Indicators of this are the following:
1. A rising percentage of debt compared to nominal GNP.
2. The furious efforts of the banking industry to roll
unsecured debt into secured real estate.
3. A record of extraodinarily high returns in many
forms of investment a decade or more ago which
typically cycles to normal returns and then far below
average returns.
4. Debt compunding faster than income.
5. Foreign debt defaults.
6. Financial scandals. Research the Hatry Scandal
and the famous frauds of Ivar Kreuger, and the Credit
Moblier Scandal, and compare them to their respective
economic environments.

It would be far better for the government to adopt
conservative spending habits, but they never do, each
group points to the other when things are bad, and takes
credit when things are good. The truth is all governments
tend to be both irresponsible and inept.

A smart person will reduce expenditures, increase
savings and open a Swiss Bank account.

Vito wrote

leave our kids to pay the interest. Clinton was a tax-and-spend
Democrat.
Bush is a borrow and spend even more Republican. Which is worse?

"Jonathan Ganz" wrote in message
...
There is no upcoming depression. That's wacko.....

I wish ....

Well, so do I but it's not going to happen in all reasonable likelyhood.
There's no evidence of something cataclysmic like that. The world
economy is relatively stable, certain the 1st world is in economic terms.
While there are major problems, India and Pakistan seem to be
headed in the right direction, at least not threatening each other on
a daily basis. China and Taiwan are not being beligerant. North Korea
isn't any more unstable than usual. The US and the rest of the 1st world
economies are generally doing ok.

What do you base that on?


--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

"Vito" wrote in message
...
"Jonathan Ganz" wrote in message
...
There is no upcoming depression. That's wacko.....

I wish ....

A sr economist one step under Greenspan said we (US) is now dependent on
borrowing from Euro banks who could suddenly decide to invest in their own
economies and that'd drive our gummyment into receiverhip.

"Jonathan Ganz" wrote

What do you base that on?


--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

"Vito" wrote in message
...
"Jonathan Ganz" wrote in message
...
There is no upcoming depression. That's wacko.....

I wish ....

I don't think that is a reasonable outcome. I doubt he thinks it's likely.

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

"Vito" wrote in message
...
A sr economist one step under Greenspan said we (US) is now dependent on
borrowing from Euro banks who could suddenly decide to invest in their own
economies and that'd drive our gummyment into receiverhip.

"Jonathan Ganz" wrote

What do you base that on?


--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

"Vito" wrote in message
...
"Jonathan Ganz" wrote in message
...
There is no upcoming depression. That's wacko.....

I wish ....

On Fri, 16 Jul 2004 10:37:06 -0700, Jonathan Ganz wrote:

Well, so do I but it's not going to happen in all reasonable likelyhood.
There's no evidence of something cataclysmic like that. The world economy
is relatively stable, certain the 1st world is in economic terms. While
there are major problems, India and Pakistan seem to be headed in the
right direction, at least not threatening each other on a daily basis.
China and Taiwan are not being beligerant. North Korea isn't any more
unstable than usual. The US and the rest of the 1st world economies are
generally doing ok.

What do you base that on?

http://www.dieoff.org/page116.htm

Too much reading for me right now...care to summarize?

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

"thunder" wrote in message
news
On Fri, 16 Jul 2004 10:37:06 -0700, Jonathan Ganz wrote:

Well, so do I but it's not going to happen in all reasonable likelyhood.
There's no evidence of something cataclysmic like that. The world
economy
is relatively stable, certain the 1st world is in economic terms. While
there are major problems, India and Pakistan seem to be headed in the
right direction, at least not threatening each other on a daily basis.
China and Taiwan are not being beligerant. North Korea isn't any more
unstable than usual. The US and the rest of the 1st world economies are
generally doing ok.

What do you base that on?

http://www.dieoff.org/page116.htm

On Fri, 16 Jul 2004 15:51:09 -0700, Jonathan Ganz wrote:

Too much reading for me right now...care to summarize?

Oil, or lack of it. Production of world oil supplies are expected to peak
sometime between now and 2025. As oil is a gift deeply entwined in our
lives, the future without it will be quite traumatic. Depending on who
you listen to, the effects range from the death of a growth based economy,
to a population die off.

Oil, or lack of it. Production of world oil supplies are expected
to peak sometime between now and 2025. As oil is a gift deeply
entwined in our lives, the future without it will be quite
traumatic. Depending on who you listen to, the effects range from
the death of a growth based economy, to a population die off.

Fortunately, the US has lots of coal to make electricity with. Electric
motors with batteries will work just as well as combustion motors. It
just costs more to scrub the pollution from the coal emissions. Nuclear
power will look pretty attractive at that point too.

This implies that we won't find viable alternatives between now
and then. There will probably be some severe problems in
high population 3rd world countries, but they already have
these problems. The 1st world will be much less affected.

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

"thunder" wrote in message
news
On Fri, 16 Jul 2004 15:51:09 -0700, Jonathan Ganz wrote:

Too much reading for me right now...care to summarize?

Oil, or lack of it. Production of world oil supplies are expected to peak
sometime between now and 2025. As oil is a gift deeply entwined in our
lives, the future without it will be quite traumatic. Depending on who
you listen to, the effects range from the death of a growth based economy,
to a population die off.