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Iraq Crude Oil Exports May Top $1 Billion This Month (Update1)
Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Iraq's crude oil exports are rebounding and may
surpass $1 billion this month as repairs and improved security in the
southern section of the country make it possible to boost output from the
nation's biggest oilfields.

Iraq, holder of the world's second largest oil reserves, exported 1.15
million barrels of crude a day in October, according to a Bloomberg survey
of producers and analysts, almost triple the 400,000 barrels a day shipped
in July.

October's exports were worth about $890 million, based on an average
price of $25 per barrel. The value will surpass $1 billion this month
assuming exports increase at the same 15 percent rate they did last month.
That assumption is consistent with a forecast from Iraq's State Oil
Marketing Organization that the country will export 2 million barrels a day
by March.

``We've repaired pumping stations and gas-oil separation plants and
restored the power,'' said Scott Saunders, spokesman for the U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers in Washington. ``We've got the infrastructure in the south
under control,'' he said.

Rising oil exports will help fund Iraq's interim administration and
may give President George W. Bush an example of progress in the country as
guerilla attacks mount. Thirty-four U.S. soldiers were killed in Iraq in the
first eight days of November, the Associated Press said, equaling the number
killed in all of October. A majority of Americans disapproves of how Bush is
handling the Iraq conflict, according to a Newsweek poll completed Nov. 7.

More oil from Iraq may also push crude oil prices lower. Crude oil for
December delivery rose 7 cents to $30.92 a barrel at 10:15 a.m. on the New
York Mercantile Exchange, down 18 percent from a peak in March, prior to the
war.

The rise in crude oil exports ``certainly doesn't hurt'' as the Bush
administration tries to highlight areas of improvement in Iraq, said Michael
Ledeen, a foreign policy scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in
Washington.

Rising Output

Total Iraq production in October reached 1.86 million barrels a day in
Bloomberg's survey, up from 850,000 in July. Before the start of the war,
Iraq's output was 2.5 million barrels a day. U.S. and Iraqi officials and
oilfield contractors said last week that Iraq's oil output will continue to
rise and may already be higher than the October data show.

Iraq production has climbed above 2 million barrels a day according to
Thomas Krum, chief operating officer of Halliburton Co.'s KBR unit.
Halliburton's work in Iraq's oilfields cost $1.6 billion through Oct. 16,
according to the Corps.

Lieutenant General Robert Flowers, commander of the Corps of
Engineers, said on CNN last week that output is more than 2.1 million
barrels a day.

``I'm very skeptical about that,'' said Youssef Ibrahim, managing
director of Strategic Energy Investment Group, which advises banks and oil
companies on energy supply and geopolitical risk. ``I'd say that 1.5 million
barrels is the maximum that they're pumping right now.''

Pumping it Back

The U.S. Energy Department said in a report last week that ``not all
of the Iraqi production is currently available for export to world
markets.'' Officials' output tallies and forecasts include about 300,000
barrels a day that is being injected back into the ground because it can't
be used or transported, the agency said.

Oil producers sometimes pump oil back into the ground when they have
no way to export, store or refine it. The alternative of shutting down wells
that are in production can cause lower output when pumping resumes.

The forecast from the State Oil Marketing Organization that exports
will reach 2 million barrels a day in March, is a 10 percent increase from
the group's estimates in September. It remains well below the most
optimistic projections that the Bush Administration offered in the early
days of the war.

Cheney's Prediction

Vice President Dick Cheney, who was Halliburton's chief executive from
1995 to 2000, said in April that Iraq would be exporting as much as 3
million barrels a day by the end of 2003, generating more than $20 billion a
year.

Cheney's outlook proved to be optimistic because of looting and
sabotage of oilfield equipment and pipelines. Production from the Iraq's
northern fields, around Kirkuk, has been limited because exports from that
region go through a pipeline to Ceyhan, Turkey. The pipeline has been bombed
at least 27 times, according to Ibrahim.

`Bull's Eye'

``The pipeline has a big bull's-eye on it,'' said Sarah Emerson,
managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc., an energy consulting
firm in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``There is a concerted effort to disrupt
the flow in the pipeline.''

Bomb and rocket attacks on U.S. troops and other targets have been
concentrated in Baghdad and central Iraq, where the Sunni Arab population
includes the strongest supporters of former President Saddam Hussein.

The Ceyhan export pipeline is being attacked in the Sunni- dominated
regions, Emerson said. Preventing sabotage ``would require stationing troops
every so many yards, which isn't realistic,'' she said.

The south, where the Shiite Muslim population rose up against Saddam
Hussein after the 1990 Gulf War, and Kurdish regions in northern Iraq have
been calmer. Exports from the south are shipped through tanker terminals on
the Persian Gulf.

Most of Iraq's crude oil production is coming from the south of the
country, according to the Corps of Engineers' Saunders. ``We've enhanced
security quite a bit in the south,'' he said.

Restoring Power

Contractors have installed generators to run much of the equipment in
the southern oilfields around Basra, Philip Carroll, former senior adviser
to the Iraq Oil Ministry, said in a phone interview from London. Carroll is
former chief executive of Shell Oil Co.

Output from southern Iraq will reach 2 million barrels a day sometime
next year, said Mordechai Abir, director of energy research at Burnham
Securities Inc. in New York. All or most of that could be exported, he said.

Iraq's northern fields might be used to provide as much as 500,000
barrels a day of oil for Iraq's refineries, serving the country's fuel
needs, Abir said.

Ibrahim said exports of 2 million barrels are unlikely because ongoing
violence is limiting the output of fields in the north. ``All they have is
the southern oilfields and the port there,'' he said. The outlook for Iraq's
oil industry ``has to be placed in the context of a security situation that
can only be described as a mess.''

Last Updated: November 10, 2003 10:30 EST

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"Capt. Mooron" wrote in message
...

"HUh?" wrote in message

| 1. Remove Saddam Hussein from power and destroy his WMD

Ha Ha Ha.... Yeah Sure!

| 2. Secure the oil fields

They're blowin' em up all over!

| 3. Occupy Iraq

And cry for help to do it!

| 4. Destroy terrorist camps in Iraq

They're building them up just outside the city now! Faster and more of
them.

| 5. Control the Iraq oil pipelines (E.g., Syria, Lebanon, Turkey and
| others)

Control??? Control??? they're blowin' them up all over the friggin place!
You ain't got the manpower to control them!

| 6. Establish military control of Lebanon's and Syria's southern
borders

Bwahahahahahahaaa... more terrorists are entering and leaving now than
ever
before!

| 7. Establish military control of Iran's eastern border

Ha Ha Ha.... ya ain't done it... ya won't do it! You CAN"T Do it!

| 8. Establish a new, Arab-free-zone, super base, in Iraq to replace
Ryada

Best look around a bit.... you're outnumbered ten to one!

| 9. Restore security and naval superiority to the Persian Gulf

Big deal... you could do that with the 7th!

| 10. Restore Iraq infrastructure and delegate civilian control to a
| representative Iraqi government favorable to the U.S. and its allies.

Failed to date in Afghanistan... and you'll fail as well in Iraq! What
happened to by the people for the people????

You've met nothing! You've achieved even less... and now you're spread
thin
and begging for help!

Grab a friggin clue!

CM