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Kudos to Simple Simon
Canadian Track was BANG ON.... as usual!
CM "Simple Simon" wrote in message ... | As usual, S.Simon's fearless, seven-day hurricane forecast was almost | spot on. As a matter of fact the track I predicted was less than ten degrees | off from the track that eventuated. Not even the so-called professionals | can do better than that. | | S.Simon | | | |
#2
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Kudos to Simple Simon
ect: Kudos to Simple Simon
From: "Simple Simon" Date: 09/21/2003 06:58 Pacific Standard Time Message-id: As usual, S.Simon's fearless, seven-day hurricane forecast was almost spot on. As a matter of fact the track I predicted was less than ten degrees off from the track that eventuated. Not even the so-called professionals can do better than that. S.Simon Thankfully, the people in the areas hit, paid closer attention to the true forecasters, and not the S.S. "Wheel of Fortune", or there'd have been at good deal worse news, coming from those areas in the aftermath. Shen |
#3
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Kudos to Simple Simon
Lets look at the actual record. The archives of the Tropical Prediction Center are
published: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/ISABEL.shtml? On 9/12 1500Z they were not willing to give landfall predictions, but they did project a 5 day forecast position of: 120HR VT 17/1200Z 27.5N 75.0W 105 KT Where was Isabel at this time? At: AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 72.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. The net prediction was about 126 miles South, 100 miles West, winds off by 10 kts. If you look a day later the 4 day prediction narrowed this discrepancy by half. The 5 day was about 100 miles off. What was Neal's prediction? On 9/12: "I'm glad the thing is going to head up to the New York area." On 9/13: "You live up there in the New York area, don't you? Bwahahahahaha! Better batten down the hatches. .... It doesn't take a rocket scientist to look at weather maps and project highly likely long-term paths for hurricanes. The weather service would have people believe they have some sort of magical lock on understanding. This is just not the case. Anyone with an above average mind who lives and studies the weather on a daily basis can do just as well as the so-called professionals and better than they can provided one has highly superior intellect like I do." On 9/15 Neal reiterated his claim that Isabel would hit NYC, "towards Booby's dock where it will slam him senseless." Neal's landfall prediction was over 300 miles North of where it actually occurred. New York officially had a few gusts to about 32 mph. While the NHC didn't make a landfall prediction 5 days in advance, if you consider that their original predictions were 100 miles south of the track, that might imply a landfall in southern NC. Wrightsville Beach had 12 hours of strong wind, steady at 30+ (near 40 at 1PM) with gusts 40 to 55 for the entire period. By 9/14, the NHC prediction was for landfall north of Hatteras, maybe 50 miles north of the actual strike. Neal continued to make the claim the Isabel would turn far North. When you consider the possibilities, it not clear that Neal could have been more wrong than he was. -jeff P.S. I was not foolish enough to make a public prediction, but my private early prediction was for landfall at Cape Lookout, followed by a pass over Belhaven, NC. This was not from any careful study of the weather map, but from the knowledge that the odd marina in Belhaven seems to be a hurricane magnet. "Simple Simon" wrote in message ... As usual, S.Simon's fearless, seven-day hurricane forecast was almost spot on. As a matter of fact the track I predicted was less than ten degrees off from the track that eventuated. Not even the so-called professionals can do better than that. S.Simon |
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