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Parallax
 
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Default LIGHTNING STRIKE PROBABILITY

(JAXAshby) wrote in message ...
pair a lox, wanna tell us again about your EE degree in physics? your estimate
does not match up with the math you use to portray your estimate. fine EE you
are, and in physics yet.

btw, if 4% to 20% of all sailboats mooring in the State of Florida get struck
by lightning each year, no insurance company on the planet would insure any
boat in the State of Florida without a HUGE increase in premium as compared to
the State of Georgia or the State of Alabama or the State of Texas of the State
of ...


The Florida Sea Grant Programs paper "Lightning and Sailboats"
estimates that between 4% and 20% of sailboats moored in FL get struck
each yr. Mooring is very close to the case of being a LONE sailbaot I
describe. This is well in accord with my estimates.

Various web sites show the FL strike desnity being 10-30 strikes/km^2.

A LONE tall tree with 5%/yr chance of being struck could live at least
15 yrs having less than 50% chance of being hit. Note that in Central
Florida, there are few tall hills and fewer with lone tall trees.

My analysis appears to be correct.








I am aware that conventional math and physics do not work in JAXWORLD
so will be happy to go over the basic arithematic for anybody.

Concerning insurance, My insurance specifies where I keep my boat.
Long terrm storage on a mooring might nullify it. In N FL, moorings
are not very common. Most boats kept on moorings are lower value
boats so a significant increase in insurance cost isnt likely since a
lightning strike rarely involves any liability considerations. Most
lightning strikes do not sink a boat but they do wipe out electronics.
Experienced boaters in FL normally disconnect their instruments when
they leave their boat for any length of time due to the high
probability of damage from nearby strikes. Statistics show that most
sailboats will eventually get struck or be subjected to a nearby
strike at least once in their lifetime in FL. My own 23' boat once
had its VHF wiped out from a strike on a nearby pine tree, I learned
after that to disconnect the antenna. A review of damage seen by
marine surveyors will show that they commonly see lightning damage on
boats they survey although it is mostly in the form of spiderweb-like
discharge patterns in the glass. The average lightning strike will
produce damage of lower cost than the insurance deductible (remember,
this is only if no ppl involved, ie. at mooring).