yup, pair of lox, there ain't no trees in central Florida, and none either in
Malaysia or Equatorial Africa. All blasted to toothpicks by lightning hundreds
of thousands of years ago.

I am pleased to see that JAX can multiply. However, my analysis
assumes a LONE sailboat (or other tall object).

Now, I found a site giving the strike rate for Malaysia and remember
that only two places have a higher strike rate than Central FL,
Equatorial Africa and SE Asia. Malaysia has a strike rate of
25/km^2/yr. I remember that C. FL rate isnt too much smaller than the
highest so I assume 10/km^2/yr and you get (using my effective area)
of a 7% chance/yr of a LONE sailboat getting hit. I find this to be
VERY believable based on experience.

JAX, not all lightning strikes kill and not all trees hit are killed,
most are not. Perhaps you just are not familiar with being in a high
lightning environment. Around here, I can go into the woods and find
MANY trees that have been hit by lightning. This is particularly true
of tall cypress trees.
I have found web sites calculating strike probability and they all use
a formula similar to mine where effective area goes as the height
squared. However, none i have found specify the factor by wich to
multiply the height to account for electric field modification, they
just qualitatively say it goes as height squared or use empiracaly
derived effective areas.

I still find my calculation to be very reasonable.