On Fri, 01 Apr 2011 16:24:05 -0700, Jessica B
wrote:

On Thu, 31 Mar 2011 10:03:35 +0700, Bruce
wrote:

On Wed, 30 Mar 2011 16:32:32 -0700, Jessica B
wrote:

On Thu, 31 Mar 2011 06:19:40 +0700, Bruce
wrote:

On Wed, 30 Mar 2011 15:15:06 -0700, Jessica B
wrote:

On Wed, 30 Mar 2011 08:13:00 +0700, Bruce
wrote:

On Mon, 28 Mar 2011 22:20:20 -0500, CaveLamb
wrote:

Jessica B wrote:

Sorry, but I just don't understand the logic.
Sorry, I was trying to explain why it is illogical to attempt to
outrun weather patterns in a vehicle that thunders through the waves
at 5 miles an hour - A kid on a Huffy can outrun you. Sheehs, a fast
walker can "outrun" you.

Cheers,

Bruce
(bruceinbangkokatgmaildotcom)

I didn't say out run anything. I thought we were talking about the
difference between 5mph and 7mph over a distance. That's a significant
time difference over a longish distance.

Not really. It's not a different of days, at least.

200 nm at 5 knots = 100 hours
200 nm at 7 knots = 71 hours

And if running from a storm you are running into a lee shore and
shallow water - just before the storm hits?

Pass...


The problem with all these armchair estimates that in a trip of any
length speeds are never that constant. Most people make an estimate of
how many miles they can do a day knowing that it (hopefully) is, at
best, an educated guess.

One trip I did at least once a year for about 10 years was anything
from an overnighter to something like 3 weeks (a bloke who's engine
broke and, as he said, he damned near ran our of food drifting 5 miles
that way and 4 miles back when the tide changed).

Cheers,

Bruce

Logically you would always use an average, so I don't understand what
would be wrong with estimates.

As I told you, estimates are often wrong by a considerable margin -
about 21 times as I mentioned above.

Cheers,

Bruce

Your logical conclusion seems to be multiply your estimated time of
travel by 21?? That's pretty excessive and it seems like you wouldn't
be going anywhere.


The example I gave (you really do need to read before commenting) as
an example of why estimates are not always logical, simply answers
your statement " I don't understand what would be wrong with
estimates."

Cheers,

Bruce

Please don't presume to tell me what to do.

You claimed that estimates are off by wide margins, then went on to
claim that your estimate of 21x was accurate for a particular
circumstance. How in the world is a person supposed to estimate when
it's safe or not safe to go if you don't look at predicted
information??????

No, as I said read before writing. I used the 21 day story to
illustrate why estimates can be wildly wrong.


Cheers,

Bruce