wrote in message
...
On Tue, 2 Feb 2010 20:09:55 -0800, "nom=de=plume"
wrote:

wrote in message
. ..
On Tue, 2 Feb 2010 15:44:13 -0800, "nom=de=plume"
wrote:

Your numbers for Medicare are way off.

Medicare is already upside down, scooping up "reserve" money the
government has already borrowed and spent. (AKA printing money)


http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html

These are Ponzi schemes that really only have the money that is coming
in each month to redistribute back to the "investors". Just like
Bernie Madoff,. they spent the rest. The only real "investment" is
the full faith and credit of future tax payers. Without exponential
growth of the tax base, these have to fail. That worked when the
boomers were all working but the boom is over soon and these people
will be coming for money that doesn't exist.



All true, but it won't go bust for a long time. There's plenty of time
to
fix it, but yes, it has to be fixed.


If you consider 5 years a long time I suppose you are right about
Social Security but medicare is broke now. They are printing money to
fund it.


Not sure where you're getting your numbers, but SS is positive until
something like 2040, then it will be taking in less than it spends.
Medicare
is less well off. I believe they're predicting 2020 when it run out of
money
if not refunded.

I am getting my numbers from SSA.GOV, the trustees report. I posted a
link in this thread.

From that link
"Projected long run program costs are not sustainable under current
program parameters. Social Security's annual surpluses of tax income
over expenditures are expected to fall sharply this year and to stay
about constant in 2010 because of the economic recession, and to rise
only briefly before declining and turning to cash flow deficits
beginning in 2016 that grow as the baby boom generation retires. The
deficits will be made up by redeeming trust fund assets until reserves
are exhausted in 2037, at which point tax income would be sufficient
to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits through 2083.
Medicare's financial status is much worse. As was true in 2008,
Medicare's Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund is expected to pay out
more in hospital benefits and other expenditures this year than it
receives in taxes and other dedicated revenues. The difference will be
made up by redeeming trust fund assets"

The 2016-2017 number is when it is giving out more than it takes in.
In the 2011-2012 timeframe the surplus peak and will start declining.
When it gives out more than it takes in they say they will be
redeeming the bonds but we all know that is simply printing money
(adding to the deficit) because there is no real money there. We have
been spending every cent of the surplus since 1940 and putting an IOU
in the box..
That 2037 (or some other fantasy number) is when the theoretical time
the bonds would have run out. For the same reason we can't really
redeem China's bonds, we can't redeem the SS bonds. There just is not
that much money out there unless we increase the money supply by
printing it. That will be a de facto devaluation of the dollar.



If it's a fantasy for 2037, how can you rely on the other numbers?

--
Nom=de=Plume