nom=de=plume wrote:

You really don't know much about economics or the Chinese. Fortunately,
it doesn't matter much what you know or don't know.
Correct. What we know maters not to the big picture. You and I have zero
influence.

The economics are actually pretty straight-forward. Basically, we need each
other. The Chinese could decide to cash out and that would hurt the US quite
badly, but their economy would be hurt just as much if not more so.

Quite true. Having the US shut down their buying for a deaper
depression does not help China. But also note, China's economy is going
to overtake the US one shortly. They already buy more cars. Tis puts
China in a great position at the barganing table.

For example, if Obama gets anti-free trade and wants to unfairly tax
them, they can just say then we don't need USDs and the BS debt game is
over. Right now the US is down 3 pawns, a knight and a rook and not
looking pretty.

But I follow it for my own reasons, buy and hold investors get squshed
like bugs for events like these. Foe example, acorrect observation would
have had you mostly in cash in the fall of 2008. Which means you wouldn't
have taken the loses most did.

Well, hindsight is usually pretty accurate, but the reality is that a
well-diversified portfolio is almost as good and requires no magic.
Greenspan himself made a near-identical comment somewhat recently.

Hindsight? My ass. If you had your eyes open you would have seen this
depression a coming. I went into the fall of 2008 with 90% cash and am
up 30+% on my US accounts. Luck? Nope. I saw the yeild rates drop
below inflation, liquidated all lending and banks and looked for nice
exists for the rest. In December 2008 and later I started buy back,
very selectively.

But admit, I didn't expect the fall out to be as deap and in non-US
funds didn't cash up as much as I should have.

Well this time, the last place you want to be is bonds, debt, GIC, CD,
money market prefering hard assets in oil, or even bars of gold. Me, I
treat the price of a barrel of oil as a benchmark. Now that China makes
and sells more autos than the US, oil has a future and will price itself
independantly of any one currency. Including a depreciating USD.

Precious metals is not a great long-term investment. You aren't able to take
advantage of market fluctuations. But, to each his own. If you think it's
safe and you can live with the historically poor performance, that's
certainly your decision.

Stocks will continue to do well... the more diversificiation you have, the
better off you'll be.

Maybe not, but the TCK-B I bought in January sure turned a nice profit.
I have no intention of holding it forever, in fact I have already
taken 1/2 off the table.

But what you say is true of any stock, it is maybe 10-30 days in a 5 or
10 year cycle that they gets 80% of their gains. The rest being ho-hum
and for the dividends. And most companies don't pay enough of those.

I don't believe in buy/hold. I actively manage. In todays environment
you actively manage or get cleaned. I want double digit returns or I
side line the cash. Not worth the risk to invest in a diaper wipe
company at 2% to find they are cooking the books.

Oil will be the next big move. Say next summer, go over $100/barrel to
stay up above $100 / barrel. Might even go much higher. I figure maybe
$150 before a break. Possibly $200 if Obama ticks off China.