On Thu, 5 Nov 2009 21:29:14 -0600, "Del Cecchi"
wrote:


"Tom Francis - SWSports" wrote in
message ...
On Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:14:22 -0500, Tom Francis - SWSports
wrote:

On Wed, 04 Nov 2009 13:11:58 -0500, NotNow wrote:

Please read completely. Don't kill the messenger, don't give
anecdotal
crap, but respond with good, solid science to refute each of the
points.

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0219-01.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific...al_oscillation

I'll condense it for you.

1750: PDO displays an unusually strong oscillation.[2]
1905: After a strong swing, PDO changed to a "warm" phase.
1946: PDO changed to a "cool" phase. [See the blue section of the
graph on the right]
1977: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.[3]
1998: PDO index showed several years of "cool" values, but did not
remain in that pattern.[4]
2008: The early stages of a cool phase of the basin-wide Pacific
Decadal Oscillation

Sorry dude - hit the send button a little fast.

Click on the Senate Testimony link.

http://windfarms.wordpress.com/2008/...tions-not-co2/

Here's another - a little more condensed, but fairly accurate.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...=aU.evtnk6DPo#

Here's a key point to keep in mind. The relationship between global
temperature and solar activity is confused by the difference between
global temperature and surface temperature. Global temperature is
the
average temperature of the oceans - simple fact because they are
Earth's heat sink.

As we've all know ocean temperatures are not evenly distributed. The
Atlantic and Pacific oceans both experience oscillations, where
unusually warm or cold waters take turns at the ocean surface. It's
very similar to lake water turnover in fact. Lake Lanier, one that
you're very familiar with, exhibits this effect as well. This
surface
water is a primary determinant of the earth's surface temperature,
so
the ocean oscillations cause surface temperature to oscillate with
respect to the actual local and/or global temperature.

We also need to account for the largest source of raw energy which
is
the Sun. It's no accident that, coincident with normal warm/cold
cycles, that the increasedecrease in sunspots and solar prominences,
mass coronal ejections and solar flares. The high magnetic energy
components of these various solar events are very coincident with
Earth weather and weather patterns. One of the more interesting
studies done in 2007, which I can't find on the web but I'll keep
looking - at the minimum I'll be glad to send you a copy of it,
studied a solar event that occured in 1998 and it's effect on
weather
patterns. It was a major mass ejection that caused an unusual
wet/dry
pattern in the Northern Hemisphere.

There is also some interest in what are called Milankovitch Cycles -
basically eccentricities in Earth's orbit around the sun. Oddly,
these cycles also seem to correspond to warm/cold cycles and long
term
Earth weather patterns.

Ok, your turn - let's talk some science.

Is that what caused the various warm periods and cold periods
(greenland settlements, little ice age etc)? I've been wondering
what caused those cycles.

Normal variations. All oceans have periods of oscillation. What
causes these oscillations is primarily solar cycles and orbital
extremes. There has been some research that indicates that even minor
variations in "top spin" of Earth's axial rotation can cause
fluctuations can move the major ocean currents by a couple of hundred
miles temporarily. There have been times when you can spot tropical
fish, of the sort one sees in the Caribbean, swimming around Fort
Adams at the mouth of Narragansett Bay - all due to a shift in the
Gulf Stream further inshore.

One of the big concerns now is about Arctic Ice and it's so called
"retreat". While the global warming crowd is pushing the concept of
greenhouse effect, and is the idea that is being pushed hard by the
alarmists, some research suggests that this too is part of a normal
long term pattern when older ice is replaced by newer ice. Of course
this occurs on a larger time scale than 20/30 years. When you
investigate a litter in terms of solar activity and Earth's own
orbital variations in obliquity and eccentricity due to precession.
There also is some newer research into insolation (INcoming SOLar
radiATION) variations. Previously, it was thought because of our deep
and thick atmosphere, the insolation effect wasn't as pronounced as it
would be on planets like Mars and/or Jupiter, but that may be a false
assumption given the current solar minimum and it's obvious effects on
tropospheric weather patterns.

Admittedly, pollution does have some effect at the surface, but it's a
huge deep atmosphere with lots going on - the pollution from emissions
may be exactly that - pollution with affects humans in other ways, but
have little to no effect on the greenhouse effect.

I suspect we're going to see some very interesting results very soon
in atmospheric modeling as there are some new ways of analyzing deep
field data sets coming on line very soon. The atmosphere may not be
as complex to model as previously thought and these new techniques may
sound the death knell for global warming.

Wouldn't that be amusing. :)