wrote in message
...
On Sat, 8 Aug 2009 11:46:15 -0700, "Calif Bill"
wrote:


"jps" wrote in message
. ..
On Fri, 07 Aug 2009 19:45:56 -0500, Vic Smith
wrote:

On Fri, 07 Aug 2009 19:07:29 -0400, H the K
wrote:

...the Republicans are foched.


Surprisingly strong jobs data signal turning point

By JEANNINE AVERSA (AP) - 32 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - It's the clearest sign yet the recession is finally
ending:
Employers laid off far fewer workers in July, the jobless rate dipped
for the first time in 15 months and workers' hours and pay edged
upward.
Those are the kind of figures that could give Americans the
psychological boost necessary for recovery to take root after the worst
recession since World War II.

A net total of 247,000 jobs were lost last month, the fewest in a year
and a drastic improvement from the 443,000 that vanished in June.

The Labor Department's report Friday showed that the unemployment rate
dropped a notch to 9.4 percent in July, from 9.5 percent the previous
month. Together with slight increases in the average workweek and
wages,
the new figures suggested the economy is in a transition from recession
to recovery.

Don't believe all that. The gov adjusted the figures by dropping off
those who have given up looking for a job.

There were also fewer jobs lost in July than in previous months.
Lot less jobs to lose.


I believe that is true. The companies that were going under, pretty
much have by now.

The real question everyone is asking is when do we hit bottom and
start the real recovery.
Wall Street seems to think we already have. I am very happy with my
little bag of stocks. Those people who doubled down on their 401k when
everyone else was running like scalded dogs are doing OK. My wife
argued with me about it at the time but she is smiling now.

My guess, and only a guess but as good as any is that we will see a mini
recovery, but are at least 10 years out for a full sustained recovery. Much
like 1982, whole parts of the economy took 6 or more years to reach former
levels.

Government fiscal policy right now is inflationary, even a mild recovery
will trigger inflation. Say it hits 10% per year. But GDP grows by 1%.
Government will falsely say the recession is over, but the 9% slip is still
technically recessionary in value and to jobs. It will severly temper any
recovery.

Middle class cutbacks will occur for years as will the governments loss on
revenue. This is the real reason behind the health care push, an excuse to
open up on higher levels of taxation the government wants. Raise taxes 10%,
sending 8% to pork and current government excesses, and 2% to health care.
Government wants more taxes out of the people as even they know they can't
create money forever.

Spells for a 10 year recovery, and could be turbulant. But the markets will
bounce for a mini recovery, than bounce down again. A few of these will
occur. Some growth in number values will occur because of inflation, but
not in hard wealth value.

The wild card is that this recession is much worse than 1982, and the
governments are racking up debt at an unparalleled rate ever seen before. I
suspect the 70's inflation will be surpassed as a result of liberal congress
money management.

Short of it, a false recovery and this will last a decade or more.