NOYB wrote:
"jps" wrote in message
...
"NOYB" wrote in message
...

Notice how the unemployment rate improved...people are so disheartened
they're giving up and not bothering to report.

The unemployment rate is determined by surveying households. The other
figure is determined by sampling certain businesses. If you sample
households, and the results tell you there were fewer people unemployed
in
August than in July, then why do the businesses report a cut in payrolls
by
93,000? Simple...that survey ignores small business. Small business is
beginning to hire in pretty large numbers. If the surveyed businesses
lay
off a net amount of 93,000 employees, but the unemployment rate falls,
then
that means these employees are being absorbed into the job market in
small
businesses not accounted for in the original survey. "Unemployment
rate"
is
the key figure...

"Small business is starting to hire in pretty large numbers" but since
those
figures aren't tracked, you have no proof of your theory, right?

No, the proof is in the unemployment rate. Surveyed businesses layoff
workers, yet the unemployment rate goes down. Why? Because the
unemployment rate surveys households...and that means the people in those
households are working somewhere. Where are they working? Obviously in
businesses not tracked as closely by the payroll data (ie--small
businesses).



Then where do you get your information from and how do you know that it's
not people who've exhausted their unemployment benefits?

Investors Business Daily

Patrick Fearon, an economist with Eaton Vance, says the divergence between
the unemployment rate and company payrolls stems from the way the figures
are calculated.

Payroll data are based on a survey of businesses about the number of people
they employ. The jobless rate is calculated from a poll of households asking
about respondents' employment status.

The volatile household survey showed jobs rose 147,000 in August. Household
employment is up 1.19 million so far this year, compared with the decline of
437,000 in nonfarm payrolls.

The payroll measure "probably does not do a perfect job of capturing new
start-up businesses and self employment. The household survey probably does
a better job of that," Fearon said.

He says this disparity is normal early in a recovery. Many people out of
work "strike out on their own," creating their own businesses and forming
start-ups with a small group.

Those start-ups and home businesses generally aren't included in the payroll
survey.



It's a giggle to watch you grasp at any passing straw as you try to
rationalize the failures of your dumb-as-a-post president.