On Thu, 7 May 2009 14:05:34 -0400, "Eisboch"
wrote:


No sour grapes on my part. I hope that the policies of the current
administration result in a strong economic recovery relative to current
conditions. They almost have to, by default. It couldn't have become
much worse without complete collapse.

That said though, I wonder what the "new" US economy is going to be like.
Will it return to a robust, growing and healthy economy that led the world
or will it re-stabilize in a much more anemic form dependent on government
spending, financing and oversight?

The U.S. economy has been in decline since the '70's. Look at balance
of trade. This is a compelling chart.
http://www.balanceoftrade.net/pictures.html
Much of the country has been living on debt, hope and fantasy for the
last couple decades.
Note that energy costs are a big component of trade deficit.
Leaving that out, the real decline began during Ronald Reagan.
Might have happened if Carter was in. Globalism, "me generation"
loss of patriotism in the interests of materialism, etc, etc, all
played their roles. But leadership takes the blame.
Bush #1 was the last red-blooded American that may have stopped the
decline, but he didn't. So no awards for him.
He was The Last Republican.
Then the idiots Clinton and Bush #2 accelerated the slide.
One a hedonistic globalist, the other a recovered drunk with many
damaged brain cells. Both draft dodgers, though I give Bush credit
for strapping himself into Nat Guard jets.
Here's a good paper written a couple years ago. But it won't do you
any good unless you read it. Sharp guy. Agrees with me (-:
http://www.fffr.org/featured/feat_art_02.php
I saw this coming in the '80's when Americans started buying Jap cars
like there was no tomorrow. No patriotism. No tune-up skills.
Yuppification of America.
Of course Big 3 quality didn't help much. Doesn't matter.
Asians won. Their govs direct business in the interest of their
national economies. Failed execs don't run off with millions, they do
hari kari. Or in the case of our dear friend commie China, they get
shot.
They Japs never got me though. Still drive Chevys.
So the answer to your question is: We aren't even close to bottoming
out. Did you know that fully 20% of U.S. home mortgages were upside
down in December?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123616863098628705.html
Probably worse now. We need jobs.
And Wall Street ain't hiring.
Look for lots of gov control to get industrial production restarted
here. The implications for trade disputes, and noise within and
without the country are pretty obvious.
Appeals to patriotism and gov tax policy will be the tools, not
outright tariffs. That will dampen external protests. After all, the
rest of world's countries work that way. No Wall Street running the
gov.
Internally, Wall Street will squeal like stuck pigs, and leftist
one-worlders will yelp like stepped on dogs.
You may have noticed Obama has started the process.
The squeals and yelps are being heard.
I don't know if he's wrapped his mind around the task at hand quite
yet. Windmills and solar panels alone won't do it.
He is walking into a storm.
If that fails and joblessness continues to rise, look for an
increasing welfare state to forestall riots and revolution.
Wall Street's fantasy profits, living on debt, Reaganistic voodoo
economics, trickle down, etc, have failed.
Big time. Look at the trade deficit charts. That's all the proof
required. Time to get back to work. Back to the '60's.
Easier though, because of more advanced automation.
I don't think Chinese labor will carry us any more. They own us.
So it's make what we consume and deal with energy costs to the extent
trade is balanced, or welfare state.
Frugalism is a given, and is already happening.
That's my glass half full look. If you want the glass half empty
view, just ask.
Damn, I miss Dick Nixon. But Obama has some stones.
We'll see.

--Vic

Disclaimer: I might be wrong.